Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on how America dines
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on how America dines, January 2021
- Opportunities and challenges
- Re-emergence (2021)
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- Figure 3: Anticipated changes in dining behavior and why, November 2020
- Aggressive promotions are necessary during a recession
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- Figure 4: Restaurant visitation during financial uncertainty, November 2020
- Recovery (2022-25)
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Macro-economic factors are detrimental for the market
- Restaurants move inside the home
- Remote work alters the industry
Market Size and Forecast
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- Pandemic decimates the foodservice industry
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- Figure 5: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on how America dines
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- Figure 7: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on how America dines, July 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: Market context
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 8: Annual personal consumption expenditures, foodservice, 2000-2019
- Figure 9: Annual personal consumption expenditures, foodservice, 2000-2019
Market Factors
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- Change in work paradigms will forever alter the foodservice market
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- Figure 10: Employment during pandemic, among employed consumers, November 2020
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- Figure 11: Anticipated work situation in 2021, among consumers currently working from home, November 2020
- Food safety and restaurant sanitation take on new importance
- End of independents?
- Cooking behaviors established during the pandemic may become engrained
Market Opportunities
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- Ethical eats
- Bring the restaurant inside the home
- Need for speed
- Rethink the office lunch
- Do the breakfast shuffle
- Foodservice snacks offer consumers a break
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- Figure 12: Correspondence analysis – symmetrical map – priorities by daypart, November 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Promotions will get restaurants through the recession
- LSRs will dominate in a post-COVID landscape
Competitive Strategies
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- Chains double down on value
- Restaurant segments evolve
- Ghost stories
- Comfort foods offer consumers reprieve
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- A desire for deals and comforts will define 2021
- Sanitation takes center stage
- Troubled times remain for restaurants
Restaurant Segment Visitation and Frequency
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- LSRs lead in visitation incidence and frequency
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- Figure 13: Restaurant visitation, November 2020
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- Figure 14: Restaurant segment visitation frequency, among segment visitors, November 2020
- Casual dining chain companies need to diversify
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- Figure 15: Restaurant visitation, by generation, November 2020
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- Figure 16: Restaurant segment visitation frequency, once per week or more often, among segment visitors, by age, November 2020
- Economic hardships challenge restaurants
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- Figure 17: Restaurant visitation, by HHI, November 2020
- Figure 18: Restaurant segment visitation frequency, once per week or more often, among segment visitors, by HHI, November 2020
Primary Restaurant Associations
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- Affordability and familiarity are consumer comforts
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- Figure 19: Primary restaurant associations, November 2020
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- Figure 20: Primary restaurant associations, by age and HHI, November 2020
- Restaurant heritage messages are universally appealing
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- Figure 21: Primary restaurant associations, by new restaurant trial, November 2020
Anticipated Dining Behavior Changes and Why
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- Consumers are split on their future dining plans
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- Figure 22: Anticipated changes in dining behavior, by select demographics, November 2020
- Restaurant recovery entirely depends on the pandemic
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- Figure 23: Reasons for dining out less in 2021, November 2020
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- Figure 24: Reasons for dining out more in 2021, November 2020
New Restaurant Trial
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- Millennials and urbanites are foodservice explorers
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- Figure 25: New restaurant trial, November 2020
- Figure 26: New restaurant trial, by select demographics, November 2020
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- Figure 27: New restaurant trial, by restaurant segments visited, November 2020
Important Factors When Dining Out
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- Value is the key trend during the pandemic and beyond
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- Figure 28: Important factors when dining out, most important and any importance, November 2020
- Restaurants need to make Boomers feel at ease
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- Figure 29: Important factors when dining out, any importance, by generation, November 2020
- Value appeals across consumer segments
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- Figure 30: Important factors when dining out, top five any important factors, by food and drink shopper segments, November 2020
- A food hall evolution is near
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- Figure 31: Important factors when dining out, any importance, by restaurant segments visited, November 2020
What Consumers Miss about Dining Out
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- Consumers miss the social connections of dining out
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- Figure 32: Miss about dining out, November 2020
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- Figure 33: Miss about dining out, by new restaurant trial, November 2020
Restaurant Visitation during Financial Uncertainty
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- Consumers will drop out of the foodservice industry
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- Figure 34: Restaurant visitation during financial uncertainty, November 2020
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- Figure 35: Restaurant visitation during financial uncertainty, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2020
- Alcohol promotions and creative thinking is necessary to keep consumers engaged
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- Figure 36: Restaurant visitation during financial uncertainty, by new restaurant trial, November 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Food and Drink Shopper Segments
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Correspondence Analysis
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- Methodology
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