Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice
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- Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, in short, medium and long term, 6 January 2021
- The market
- Foodservice market dives in 2020
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- Figure 2: UK central forecast value sales for the foodservice market, at current prices, 2015-25
- Recovery will start in 2021
- Brexit’s impact on employment and use of British produce
- Companies and brands
- COVID-19 has spurred category-blurring innovations
- The consumer
- Eating out becomes less of a priority but underlying demand remains strong
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- Figure 3: Trends in what extra money is spent on, July 2017 - October 2020
- The enduring appeal of pub restaurants
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- Figure 4: Restaurants and food outlets visited for eat-in meals, 2017-20
- QSR takeaway venues the crutch in pandemic times
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- Figure 5: Restaurants and food outlets visited for takeaway/delivery, 2017-20
- The power of ‘free’
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- Figure 6: Types of promotions, September 2020
- Consumers getting used to eating outdoors
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- Figure 7: Eating out behaviours, September 2020
- The strength of pubs and coffee shops in communities
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- Figure 8: Perceptions of foodservice venues – Correspondence Analysis, September 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Community spaces: pub and coffee shops
- Reaching consumers who are staying at home
- The recession’s impact on foodservice
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Foodservice plummets in 2020 due to COVID-19
- Recovery stems from restructuring and resilience
- VAT cut helps to keep operators afloat
- Opportunities to cater to remote workers
- Brexit’s impact on foodservice recruitment
- Brexit’s impact on British producers and grocers
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice
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- Figure 9: Expected impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, in short, medium and long term, 6 January 2021
- Foodservice plummets in 2020…
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- Figure 10: Forecasted value of the UK foodservice market, at current prices, 2015-25
- …but recovery will start in mid-2021
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- Figure 11: UK central forecast value sales for the foodservice market, at current prices, 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 12: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 30 November 2020)
- Lessons learnt from the last recession
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- Figure 13: UK eating out market size and forecast, 2008-13
- Forecast methodology
- COVID-19: Market context
Market Drivers
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- VAT cut helps to keep operators afloat
- National Living Wage to rise with inflation
- Pubs in upper tiers must serve substantial meals
- The implications of relaxed takeaway regulations
- Impact of obesity strategy on promotion
- Opportunities to cater to remote workers
- Impact of Brexit on foodservice
- Recruitment
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- Figure 14: Occupation, by employment status, July 2018-June 2020
- Menu prices
- Supply chains
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- Figure 15: Food attitudes, February 2019 – September 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 has forever changed foodservice
- Dark kitchens help operators expand food delivery
- Outdoor dining provides a lifeline for restaurants
- Crossing over to retail expands accessibility
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- COVID-19 has forever changed the foodservice industry
- Home delivery
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- Figure 16: McCain Foodservice’s Next Level Delivery Ranges
- Dark kitchens
- Drive-thrus
- Outdoor dining
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- Figure 17: Outdoor dining in London’s Chinatown, August 2020
- Touch-free
- Contact tracing
- Social media
- New occasions
- Substantial meals
- Retail
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- Figure 18: Example of restaurant-branded ready-to-heat meals, as seen in Singapore
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Eating out becomes less of a priority…
- …but underlying demand remains strong
- Takeaway comes to the fore…
- …fuelled by QSRs offering takeaway, delivery and drive-thrus
- Britons warm up to outdoor dining
- Community spaces: pub and coffee shops
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Spending and saving during COVID-19
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- Figure 19: Trends in what extra money is spent on, July 2017 - October 2020
- Britons warm up to outdoor dining
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- Figure 20: Comfort level going out to eat, 25 June - 19 November 2020
- Britons access food through delivery
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- Figure 21: Takeaways/home delivery spending expectations over the next month, 16 April - 19 November 2020
Annual Changes in Eating Out Participation
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- COVID-19 fuels Britons appetite for takeaways
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- Figure 22: Overall eating out usage, 2017-20
- The enduring appeal of pub restaurants
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- Figure 23: Restaurants and food outlets visited for eat-in meals, 2017-20
- QSR takeaway venues the crutch in pandemic times
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- Figure 24: Restaurants and food outlets visited for takeaway/delivery, 2017-20
Usage of Food Outlets
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- COVID-19 fuels Britons appetite for fast food takeaways
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- Figure 25: Annual changes in food outlets visited, September 2019 – September 2020
- Cafés and coffee shops the most popular eat-in outlets
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- Figure 26: food outlets visited for eat-in occasions, September 2020
- Fish and chips and kebab takeaways fuel Britons
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- Figure 27: food outlets visited for takeaway occasions, September 2020
- Promiscuous consumers fuel food outlet visitations
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- Figure 28: Repertoire of food outlets visited for eat in or takeaway, September 2020
Usage of Restaurants
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- Bumper year for restaurant takeaways amid COVID-19
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- Figure 29: Annual changes in restaurants visited, September 2019 - September 2020
- Eating in pub restaurants is part of British lives
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- Figure 30: Restaurants visited for eat-in occasions, September 2020
- Chinese and curry houses backbone of the restaurant takeaway segment
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- Figure 31: Restaurants visited for takeaway occasions, September 2020
- Loyalty is hard-earned in the age of the promiscuous consumer
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- Figure 32: Repertoire of restaurants visited for eat in or takeaway, September 2020
Most Popular Types of Promotions
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- The power of ‘free’
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- Figure 33: Types of promotions, September 2020
- Older generations require traditional discounts
- Younger generations want deals, not discounts
- The foodservice business of doing good
- Anticipation keeps younger consumers coming back
Eating Out Behaviours
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- COVID-19 has changed the way consumers eat out
- Deposits and tickets to deal with no-shows
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- Figure 34: Eating out behaviours, September 2020
- Building trust with COVID-19 communications
- Consumers getting used to eating outdoors
- The value of customer data
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- Figure 35: Eating Out Review – CHAID – Tree output, September 2020
- The ‘demonisation’ of HFSS’ impact on eating out
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- Figure 36: Healthy food factors, February 2019 - September 2020
- The impact of consumers’ food attitudes on eating out
- Taking food safety for granted
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- Figure 37: Food attitudes, April 2016 – September 2020
- Embracing meat-free concepts
- Exploring healthier alternatives
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- Figure 38: Example of a fortified meal replacement drink, by Soylent
- Matching drinks with food
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- Figure 39: An example of food and drink pairing, by Wagamama
Perceptions of Venues
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- The strength of pubs and coffee shops in communities
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- Figure 40: Perceptions of foodservice venues – Correspondence Analysis, September 2020
- The negatives of fast food outlets
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- Figure 41: Perceptions of foodservice venues – Correspondence Analysis, September 2020
- Healthy perception strongest for sandwich shops
- Casual dining restaurants in a weak position
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- CHAID Methodology
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- Figure 42: Eating Out Review – CHAID – Table output, September 2020
- Correspondence analysis methodology
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