Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on domestic tourism
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on domestic tourism, 6 January 2021
- The market
- Value of domestic holiday market expected to decline by 46% in 2020
- Strong domestic summer season expected
- The value of the domestic holiday market is expected to recover in 2022
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- Figure 2: Forecast volume and value* of domestic holidays taken by British residents (prepared on 6 January 2021), 2015-25
- Working holidays provide the opportunity to reduce dependence on short breaks
- Over the longer term, over-55s are an important driver for growth of the domestic travel market
- Companies and brands
- Companies continue to promote reassurance messages
- Campaigns with an outdoor element
- More brands have tapped into higher demand for stays closer to home
- The consumer
- New lockdowns impacted confidence in bookings
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- Figure 3: Actual bookings and plans to book a holiday in the next three months, January 2019 to November 2020 (fieldwork dates in November 2020: 5-18 November)
- Over half of Brits took a staycation in the year to July 2020
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- Figure 4: UK holiday taking, 2016-20
- Domestic holidaying intentions highest among 16-44s
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- Figure 5: UK holidaying frequency in the next 12 months, July 2020
- Concerns about travelling abroad will see some consumers take more staycations…
- …but some consumers worry about more disruption in the UK too
- Demand for city breaks expected to bounce back once virus threat abates
- Desire to be outdoors leads to high potential for South West, Scotland and Wales
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- Figure 6: UK holiday destinations, visited vs considered, July 2020
- Price and flexibility key in the planning and booking process
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- Figure 7: Factors influencing choice of travel company for staycation, by age, July 2020
- Opportunity to develop more self-drive routes and walking trails
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- Figure 8: Participation and future holidaying intentions in the UK, by holiday type, October 2020
- Families are looking to de-stress
- Younger travellers desperate for new challenges
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- Figure 9: Changes in appeal of domestic holiday activities compared to prior to COVID-19, July 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Activity breaks have potential
- High interest in combining nature with culture
- Escaping from technology
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Value of domestic holiday market expected to decline by 46% in 2020
- Strong domestic summer season expected
- The value of the domestic holiday market is expected to recover in 2022
- Working holidays provide the opportunity to reduce dependence on short breaks
Market Size and Forecast
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- New lockdowns dampen speed of recovery of domestic travel market
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- Figure 10: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on domestic tourism, 6 January 2021
- 2019 was a record year for domestic tourism
- Value of domestic holiday market expected to decline by 46% in 2020
- Strong domestic summer season expected
- The value of the domestic holiday market is expected to recover in 2022
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- Figure 11: Forecast volume and value* of domestic holidays taken by British residents (prepared on 6 January 2021), 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 12: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast (prepared on 6 January 2021), 2015-25
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 13: Value sales of domestic and overseas holidays, 2008-15
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Scotland became the second most visited domestic holiday destination in 2019
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- Figure 14: Holidays in Great Britain taken by British residents, by region visited, 2016-19
- Prior to COVID-19 growth came predominantly from holidays to urban areas
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- Figure 15: Holidays in Great Britain taken by British residents, by type of destination, 2016-19
- Working holidays provide the opportunity to reduce dependence on short breaks
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- Figure 16: Holidays in Great Britain taken by British residents, by duration, 2015-19
Market Drivers
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- Lockdowns will prolong the recovery of the holiday market
- COVID-19 has impacted consumers’ financial wellbeing
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- Figure 17: Changes in financial situation, November 2019-November 2020
- Continued government support and better prospects from spring 2021 prevent fall in consumer confidence
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- Figure 18: Financial confidence in the year ahead, November 2019-November 2020
- Over the longer term, over-55s are an important driver for growth of the domestic travel market
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- Figure 19: 2018-based National Population Projections, release date 21 October 2019
- Impact of human activity on climate change is fuelling demand for greener travel
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- Figure 20: UK mean temperature in °C, by quarter, 2013-20
- Consumer confidence in travelling overseas has been low
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Companies continue to promote reassurance messages
- Campaigns with an outdoor element
- Travel companies ramped up Black Friday activity in 2020
- More brands have tapped into higher demand for stays closer to home
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- More brands have tapped into higher demand for stays closer to home
- Kuoni launches its first UK and Ireland holidays
- Cosmos launches UK Stay and Explore escorted tours
- Airbnb launches Go Near initiative
- Campaigns to boost staycations in the UK
- Digital marketing campaign to promote the Scottish self-drive route North East 250
- Tourism Northern Ireland launches recovery campaign “Embrace a Giant Spirit”
- Wales launches “The Year of Outdoors 2020-2021”
- Domestic campaign to boost autumn and winter breaks
- Travel companies ramped up Black Friday activity in 2020
- Digital detox experience ‘Unplugged’ launched during lockdown
- Selections of campaigns abroad
- Australia’s “Holiday Here This Year” campaign
- Malaysia Airlines launches “Kids Fly + Stay Free” campaign to boost domestic tourism
- New York publishes roadmap for tourism recovery
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Late booking trend will continue
- Domestic holidaying intentions highest among 16-44s
- Desire to be outdoors leads to high potential for South West, Scotland and Wales
- Despite subdued appeal, city breaks remain the most desired holiday type
The Impact of COVID-19 on Booking Intentions
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- New lockdowns impacted confidence in bookings
- Late booking trend will continue
- Brands providing great customer service will recover more quickly post lockdown
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- Figure 21: Actual bookings and plans to book a holiday in the next three months, January 2019 to November 2020 (fieldwork dates in November 2020: 5-18 November)
The Impact of COVID-19 on Confidence in Travel
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- Prospects of vaccinated older population offers opportunities for multigenerational breaks
- Significant growth opportunity for holiday homes
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- Figure 22: Consumers’ confidence in holiday transport and accommodation types, 25 June-19 November 2020
Domestic Holiday Taking
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- Over half of Brits took a staycation in the year to July 2020
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- Figure 23: UK holiday taking, 2016-20
Domestic Holidaying Intentions
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- Interest in taking a staycation remains high
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- Figure 24: UK holidaying intentions, July 2020
- Domestic holidaying intentions highest among 16-44s
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- Figure 25: UK holiday taking vs holidaying intentions, July 2020
- Travellers will cut back on the number of breaks they take
- Working holidays allow travellers to holiday more frequently
- Over-55s will have a strong desire to meet others once the virus threat abates
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- Figure 26: UK holidaying frequency in the next 12 months, July 2020
- Opportunity to offer luxury breaks
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- Figure 27: UK holidaying intentions per quarter, by age, July 2020
Reasons for Changing Holidaying Habits
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- Concerns about travelling abroad will see some consumers take more staycations
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- Figure 28: Reasons for taking more UK holidays in the next 12 months, by age, July 2020
- Opportunity to provide specialist services for those travelling with pets
- Fear of disrupted travel plans will impact domestic holidays too
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- Figure 29: Reasons for taking fewer UK holidays in the next 12 months, by age, July 2020
Domestic Holidaying Destinations
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- Demand for city breaks expected to bounce back once virus threat abates
- Desire to be outdoors leads to high potential for South West, Scotland and Wales
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- Figure 30: UK holiday destinations, visited vs considered, July 2020
Purchase Drivers When Choosing a Travel Company
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- Price and flexibility key in the planning and booking process
- It is important to implement hygiene measures without comprising the holiday experience
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- Figure 31: Factors influencing choice of travel company for staycation, by age, July 2020
Domestic Holiday Types
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- Opportunity to develop more self-drive routes and walking trails
- Increased potential for digital detox experiences
- Despite subdued appeal, city breaks remain the most desired holiday type
- Testing strategies will help demand to recover quicker
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- Figure 32: Participation and future holidaying intentions in the UK, by holiday type, October 2020
Domestic Holiday Activities
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- Families are looking to de-stress
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- Figure 33: Changes in appeal of domestic holiday activities compared to prior to COVID-19, July 2020
- Younger travellers desperate for new challenges
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- Figure 34: Changes in appeal of domestic holiday activities compared to prior to COVID-19, positive vs negative (percentage points)*, by demographics, July 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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