Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
- Slide to follow 2020 sales jump
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on sugar and alternative sweeteners
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on sugar and alternative sweeteners, December 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Focus messaging on sweetener applications and attributes
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- Figure 3: Nutritional differences in sweeteners, October 2020
- Nurture nutrition
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- Figure 4: Attitudes toward nutritive sweeteners, October 2020
- Clear up sugar-reduction confusion
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- Figure 5: Attitudes toward sugar reduction in food/drinks, October 2020
- Alternatives eat into sugar's market
- Leading syrup brands face a reckoning
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- 2020's surge to be followed by considerable slip in sales
- Alternatives can provide natural competition
- Large syrup brands wrestle with racial sensitivity
- Nutritive sweeteners resonate
Market Size and Forecast
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- Surging sales to return to pre-pandemic slide
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2015-25
- Macroeconomic factors
- At-home food preparation to decline with pandemic’s end
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- Figure 8: Expected US unemployment, 2019-25
- Focus beyond families
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- Figure 9: Households, by presence of related children, 2009-19
- Impact of COVID-19 on sugar and alternative sweeteners
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- Figure 10: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on sugar and alternative sweeteners, December 2020
- Lockdown
- Reemergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and sweeteners, 2007-12
Segment Performance
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- Alternatives erode sugar’s market share lead
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- Figure 12: Sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, 2015-25
- Sugar’s sales surge across retail channels
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Market Factors
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- Capitalizing on increased cooking at home
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- Figure 14: Mealtime behaviors compared to last year – cooking and baking in general, October 2020
- Post-COVID consumers will be encouraged to live healthier
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- Figure 15: Age-adjusted prevalence of diagnosed, undiagnosed and total diabetes among adults aged
- Awareness of social awareness
- Heart disease and sugar/artificial sweeteners
Market Opportunities
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- Home in on honey
- Boost health perceptions with more-functional sweeteners
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- Figure 16: Attitudes toward nutritive sweeteners, October 2020
- Assuage concerns about sugar reduction in food/drinks
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- Figure 17: Attitudes toward sugar reduction in food/drinks, October 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Private label capitalizes on commodity perception
- Nutritional attributes could help overcome substitutes’ stigma
Market Share
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- Sugar sales lead private label to dominate market share
- Sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners by company
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- Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
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- Nutritional boost to alternative sweeteners
- Sweeteners merge natural with keto-friendly
- Honey brands go to the source
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- Figure 19: US launches of honey, by claim, 2015-20
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Multiple methods used to evaluate sugar content
- Sugar alternatives appeal to younger consumers
- Sugar watchers more likely to use natural sweeteners
- Alternative sweeteners prove problematic
Consumer Perceptions of Their Sugar Intake
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- Only a quarter say they exceed daily recommendations for sugar
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- Figure 20: Consumer perceptions of their sugar intake, October 2020
- Young people overconsume sugar
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- Figure 21: Consumer perceptions of their sugar intake, by age, October 2020
- Dads much more likely to overconsume – and know it
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- Figure 22: Consumer perceptions of their sugar intake, by parental status, by gender, October 2020
- Motivating those who eat too much sugar to eat less
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- Figure 23: Evaluating food/drink sugar content, by consumer perceptions of their sugar intake, October 2020
- Underconsumers make efforts to avoid sugar content
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- Figure 24: Sugar/sweetener content on shopping behavior, by consumer perceptions of their sugar intake, October 2020
- Overconsumers wary of efforts to modify sweetener content
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- Figure 25: Attitudes toward sugar/sweeteners, by consumer perceptions of their sugar intake, October 2020
Evaluating Food/Drink Sugar Content
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- Go beyond label requirements to guide consumers
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- Figure 26: Evaluating food/drink sugar content, October 2020
- Activity equivalents resonate strongly with parents and younger consumers
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- Figure 27: Evaluating food/drink sugar content, by age, October 2020
- Figure 28: Evaluating food/drink sugar content, by parental status, by gender, October 2020
- Consumers want to know the impact of the sugar content
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- Figure 29: TURF Analysis – evaluating food/drink sugar content, October 2020
Sweeteners Used
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- Sugar remains most popular, but honey closes the gap
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- Figure 30: Sweeteners used, October 2020
- Sweeteners for specific applications could resonate
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- Figure 31: Sweeteners used, by age, October 2020
- Honey’s natural appeal resonates with parents
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- Figure 32: Sweeteners used, by parental status, October 2020
Usage of Sweeteners
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- Hot drinks, recipes lead sweetener usage
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- Figure 33: Usage of sweeteners, October 2020
- Room to increase usage in recipes
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- Figure 34: Usage of sweeteners, by Hispanic origin, October 2020
Sugar/Sweetener Content and Shopping Behavior
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- Just under half of consumers check food labels for sugar
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- Figure 35: Sugar/sweetener content and shopping behavior, October 2020
- Alternative sweetener users prone to check labels for sugar content
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- Figure 36: Sugar/sweetener content and shopping behavior, by Hispanic origin, October 2020
Reasons for Limiting Sugar
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- Consumers taking a long view when it comes to sugar’s health concerns
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- Figure 37: Reasons for limiting sugar, October 2020
- Sugar alternatives with a BFY claim appeal to younger consumers
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- Figure 38: Reasons for limiting sugar, by age, October 2020
Perceptions of Select Types of Sugars and Sweeteners
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- “Plant-derived” sweeteners resonating
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- Figure 39: Correspondence analysis – Perceptions of select types of sugars and sweeteners, October 2020
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- Figure 40: Correspondence analysis – Perceptions of select types of sugars and sweeteners, October 2020
Sweetener Concern by Category
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- Natural, BFY sweeteners may improve consumers’ negative perceptions of sweetened beverages
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- Figure 41: Sweetener concern by category, October 2020
- Young people’s sweetener concern notably in juice, energy drinks
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- Figure 42: Sweetener concern by category, by age, October 2020
Attitudes toward Sugar/Sweeteners
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- Consumers look to avoid sweeteners, particularly artificial ones
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward sugar/sweeteners, October 2020
- Dads much more likely to accept “natural sugars”
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward health and sugar/sweeteners, by parental status, by gender, October 2020
- Natural alternatives will face price sensitivity challenges in the recession
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward use of sugar alternatives, by household income, October 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of syrup and molasses, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of syrup and molasses, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar substitutes, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar substitutes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of honey, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of honey, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 56: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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- Figure 58: US supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 59: US sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
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Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of sugar, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of syrup and molasses, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 62: Multi-outlet sales of sugar substitutes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 63: Multi-outlet sales of honey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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Appendix – Correspondence Analysis Methodology
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- Figure 64: Correspondence analysis – Perceptions of select types of sugars and sweeteners, October 2020
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TURF Analysis – Methodology
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- Figure 65: TURF Analysis – evaluating food/drink sugar content, October 2020
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- Figure 66: Table – TURF Analysis – evaluating food/drink sugar content, October 2020
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