Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2015–25
- Impact of COVID-19 on nuts, seeds and trail mix
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on nuts, seeds and trail mix, July 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Healthy rep and popularity are watered down by pigeonholed occasions
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- Figure 3: Attitudes related to usage and variety, October 2020
- Opportunities for flavor and functionality innovation
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- Figure 4: Attitudes related to brand, value, flavor and functionality, for millennials and parents, August 2020
- Play up the plant-based protein connections…
- …but don’t forget the core: older consumers
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- Figure 5: TURF Analysis – nuts/seeds/trail mix consumers, October 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Five-year growth is slow as consumers demand high value
- At-home cooking and quest for healthy snacks boosts sales in 2020
- Competition from other snacks is an ongoing challenge
- Largest segment – nuts – grows sales as trail mix and seeds struggle
- Opportunities in new flavors and online, delivery and subscription services
Market Size and Forecast
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- Slow growth gets modest pandemic-driven boost
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of nut, seed and trail mix market, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2015–25
- Key Macroeconomic Indicators
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- Figure 8: US. Unemployment, April 2018–September 2020
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- Figure 9: U.S. Consumer Confidence, January 2019–October 2020
- Impact of COVID-19 on nuts, seeds and trail mix
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- Figure 10: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on nuts, seeds and trail mix, July 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
Segment Performance
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- Nuts find modest gains, while trail mix slows and seeds struggle
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- Figure 11: total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2015–2020
- “Other retail channels” account for the majority of sales
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by channel, at current prices, 2019 and 2020
Market Factors
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- Obesity and COVID epidemics will increase demand for foods supporting weight loss
- Strong interest in wellness, nutrition and BFY foods and snacks
- Demographic trends shape growth in nut/seed/trail mix
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- Figure 13: US Population by Generation, 2015–25
- Demand is high for snacks – but so is competition
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of salty snacks, by segment, 2014–24
- Interest in plant-based protein a positive driver for nuts and seeds
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- Figure 15: Protein opinions, March 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Flavor innovation can create brand loyalty
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- Figure 16: Snack flavor experience and interest, tier three flavors, November 2019
- Play up the plant-based proteins
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- Figure 17: TURF Analysis – nuts/seeds/trail mix consumers, October 2020
- Online marketplace
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- Figure 18: Most recent purchase, by generation, October 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Private label offerings build share and propel category growth
- Private label brands are getting creative
- Modest growth for Planters and Wonderful
Market Share
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- Private label gains share and propel category growth
- Kraft Heinz. Wonderful find modest growth while others flounder
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by company, rolling 52-weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
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- Private labels go functional and flavorful
- Planters, Wonderful target young, active adults through sports and beer
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- Figure 20: Wonderful, Mouth Guards, November 2020
- Brands target expanded occasions with recipes, celebrity chef partnerships
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- Figure 21: Planters with Josh Elkin, 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Nearly nine in 10 consume nuts, seeds or trail mix
- Grocery stores lead in highly diversified retail landscape
- Pandemic stocking up, health drive increase purchase
- Protein, functionality point to opportunities for category
- A quest for Wellbeing drives consumer behavior in the category
- Consumers crave new taste experiences
- Value is fundamental
Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix Purchase
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- Almost nine in 10 consume nuts, seeds and trail mixes
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- Figure 22: Purchase of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, October 2020
- Gen X and older eat more nuts, Gen Z more seeds
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- Figure 23: Purchase of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by generation, October 2020
- Gen Z shift to seeds driven by chia
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- Figure 24: Consumption of select nuts, by generation, October 2020
- Parents purchase more nuts, seeds and trail mix
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- Figure 25: Purchase of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by parental status, October 2020
- Higher-income households buy more nuts, seeds and trail mix
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- Figure 26: Purchase of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by household income, October 2020
Purchase Locations
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- Grocery stores are leading retail channel
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- Figure 27: Purchase location, October 2020
- Women stick to grocery stores, while men turn to range of channels
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- Figure 28: Purchase location, by gender, October 2020
- Older consumers prefer larger, brick and mortar retailers
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- Figure 29: Purchase location, by generation, October 2020
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- Figure 30: Purchase location, by generation, part ii, October 2020
- Convenience and value are drivers for consumers on both sides of the income spectrum
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- Figure 31: Purchase location, by household income, October 2020
Online versus In-store Purchase
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- About a third made their most recent purchase online
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- Figure 32: Most recent purchase, by gender, October 2020
- Millennials far more likely to make recent purchase online
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- Figure 33: Most recent purchase, by generation, October 2020
- Many affluent consumers made recent purchases online
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- Figure 34: Most recent purchase, by household income, October 2020
- Parents twice as likely to buy online
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- Figure 35: Most recent purchase, by parental status, October 2020
Consumption Occasions
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- Strong ties to snacking drive personal consumption
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- Figure 36: For whom nuts/seeds are purchased, October 2020
- Grow Gen Z, Millennial engagement through ingredient use
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- Figure 37: usage of nuts/seeds as ingredients or toppings, by generation, October 2020
Changes in Purchase
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- Almost half report buying more nuts, seeds and trail mix than a year ago
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- Figure 38: purchase change, October 2020
- Increase is highest for nuts, with seeds and trail mix not far behind
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- Figure 39: Purchase changes, October 2020
Reasons for Increased Purchase
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- Health is at the core of increased purchase
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- Figure 40: Reasons for increased usage, October 2020
- New flavors and specific health claims motivate men to buy more
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- Figure 41: Reasons for increased usage, by gender, October 2020
- A range of factors propel Millennials to buy more
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- Figure 42: Reasons for increased usage, by generation, October 2020
Reasons for Reduced Consumption
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- Reduced snacking triggers cutbacks
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- Figure 43: Reasons for decreased usage, October 2020
Snack Perceptions
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- Figure 44: Perceptions – October 2020
- Figure 45: Perceptions – October 2020
- Taste and nutrition lead category perceptions
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- Figure 46: attributes associated with nuts, seeds or trail mix, October 2020
- Gen Zs require a refresh
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- Figure 47: attributes associated with nuts, seeds or trail mix, by generation, October 2020
- Hispanics over-index for range of positive associations
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- Figure 48: attributes associated with nuts, seeds or trail mix, by Hispanic origin, October 2020
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Appealing Product Attributes
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- Are brands missing the plant-based protein boat?
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- Figure 49: appealing attributes of nuts/seeds/trail mix, October 2020
- TURF analysis shows value of flavor innovation
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- Figure 50: TURF Analysis – nuts/seeds/trail mix consumers, October 2020
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- Figure 51: Table - TURF Analysis – nuts/seeds/trail mix consumers, October 2020
- Low sugar, portion and flavor resonate with women
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- Figure 52: appealing attributes of nuts/seeds/trail mix, by gender, October 2020
- Older generations value low-sugar, low-salt and heart-healthy options
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- Figure 53: appealing attributes of nuts/seeds/trail mix, by generation, October 2020
- Hispanics more likely to value low-salt, heart- and brain-healthy products
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- Figure 54: appealing attributes of nuts/seeds/trail mix, by Hispanic origin, October 2020
Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix Attitudes
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- Healthy rep and popularity are watered down by pigeonholed occasions
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- Figure 55: Attitudes related to usage and variety, October 2020
- Other attitudes show brand allegiance and price consciousness
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- Figure 56: Attitudes related to brand, value and cost, October 2020
- Both new flavors and functional benefits may help attract more buyers
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- Figure 57: Attitudes related to flavor and functional benefits, October 2020
- Men more motivated by innovation in variety, flavors and functionality
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- Figure 58: Attitudes, by gender, October 2020
- Millennials will DIY trail mix without innovation
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- Figure 59: Attitudes by generation, October 2020
- More-affluent households turn to bulk bins, make their own mixes
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- Figure 60: Attitudes by household income, October 2020
- Parents want adult options
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- Figure 61: Attitudes by parental status, October 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- TURF Methodology
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 62: total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015–2025
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at current prices, 2015–2025
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015–2025
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at current prices, 2015–2025
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- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015–2025
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2015–2025
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015–2025
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of nuts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 70: Multi-outlet sales of seeds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of trail mix, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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