Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on wine
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on wine, October 2020
- Opportunities and challenges
- Reemergence
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- Figure 3: Reasons for drinking less alcohol, July 2020
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- Figure 4: Impact of COVID-19 on select alcohol behavior, July 2020
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- Figure 5: Wine type consumed, July 2019 and July 2020
- Recovery
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- Figure 6: Perception of box wine launches versus all wine launches, January 2019-August 2020
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- Figure 7: Wine exploration, July 2020
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- Figure 8: Alcohol consumption, by Hispanic origin and generation, July 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- On-premise shutdowns trigger projected wine dip in 2020
- Sparkling gains share on table wine
- Smaller segments can use pandemic to kickstart long overdue growth
- COVID-19 has changed where, when and how much consumers drink
- Mandated restrictions drove alcohol reduction; here comes a recession
Market Size and Forecast
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- Hamstrung on-premise performance stumps total sales growth
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on wine
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- Figure 12: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on wine, October 2020
- Lockdown
- Reemergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession: wine weathered the storm, but the climate has changed
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- Figure 13: Total US volume sales of wine, 2007-12
Segment Performance
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- Sparkling gains share on table wine
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- Figure 14: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, by segment share, 2017-23
- Figure 15: Growth/decline of leading wine types on menu, 2018 and 2019
- Sparkling wins for experience/refreshment, loses out on natural; still can make this work
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- Figure 16: Perception of Champagne/sparkling wine launches versus all wine launches, January 2019-August 2020
- Smaller segments can use pandemic to kickstart long overdue growth
- On-prem sales were gaining on off-prem through 2019, watch out for cliff
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- Figure 17: US volume sales of wine, by channel, 2015-19
- Domestic wine holding lead; brands that tell a story will win
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- Figure 18: US volume sales of table wine, by origin, 2017-19
Market Factors
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- Wine’s tie to income/employment may lead to more drinkers jumping ship
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- Figure 19: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-August 2020
- Figure 20: Alcohol consumption, by employment status, July 2020
- Increased stress has driven some to drink more
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- Figure 21: Impact of COVID-19 on alcohol consumption, July 2020
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- Figure 22: Reasons for drinking more alcohol, July 2020
- Figure 23: Alcohol motivations, July 2020
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- Figure 24: Coronavirus exposure concern and coronavirus life disruption concern, March-October 2020
- Figure 25: Impact of COVID-19 on alcohol consumption, by age, July 2020
- Change in habits had the strongest initial impact on decreases
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- Figure 26: Reasons for drinking less alcohol, July 2020
- COVID-19 increased drinking alone, on weeknights and via delivery
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- Figure 27: Impact of COVID-19 on alcohol behavior, July 2020
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- Figure 28: Impact of COVID-19 on alcohol consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Interest in health challenges alcohol, slightly less of a challenge for wine
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- Figure 29: Mintel Trend Driver Wellbeing
- Figure 30: Alcohol statements – Health – Any agree, by wine consumption, July 2020
- Red leads for perception of health
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- Figure 31: Top three wine launches ranked by healthy, January 2019-August 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Strong growing segments point to the importance of experience
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- Figure 32: Mintel Trend Driver Experiences
- Figure 33: Top three wine launches ranked by appealing packaging, January 2019-August 2020
- Bolster infrastructure for at-home exploration
- Start with strengths: food pairing
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- Figure 34: Alcohol motivations, by alcohol consumption – Wine at home, July 2020
- Nurture exploration (and loyalty) through delivery and subscriptions
- Cater to the new normal
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Gallo continues its MULO lead
- Private label continues massive growth; no end in sight
- Boxed wine boom
- Brands aim at inclusivity
Market Share
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- 10 companies control 63% of MULO sales of wine
- E&J Gallo continues its MULO lead, aims at diversified portfolio and consumer base
- Constellation focuses on some high-end sellers, looks to expand ecommerce.
- Deustch Family Wines climbs to #4 spot with Josh
- Boxed wine surge helps DFV post double-digit gains
- Private label continues massive growth, should continue as such
- Sales of wine by company
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- Figure 35: US multi-outlet sales of wine, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending September 6, 2020
- Figure 36: US multi-outlet sales of wine, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
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- Some wine brands have value in the bag (in box)
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- Figure 37: Mintel Trend Driver Value
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- Figure 38: Perception of box wine launches versus all wine launches, January 2019-August 2020
- Addressing the RTD craze, by launching RTDs
- Brands aim at inclusivity
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- Figure 39: Mintel Trend Driver Identity
- Figure 40: Wine consumption at home – CHAID – Tree output, July 2020
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- Figure 41: Alcohol consumption at home – CHAID – Table output, July 2020
- Focus on farming practices leads claims growth
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- Figure 42: Mintel Trend Driver Surroundings
- Figure 43: Wine launches by leading claims, 2018-20*
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Wine is second leading alcohol type consumed; a young bright spot seen
- Frequency of consumption makes wine a household staple
- Table wine continues lead, but sparkling and wine cocktails gain traction
- Consumers want a quick and easy way to know what to expect
- Boosting knowledge and confidence in the category can spur engagement
Wine Consumption
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- Wine continues to come in second to beer; celebrate later
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- Figure 44: Alcohol consumption, July 2020
- Wine wins women
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- Figure 45: Alcohol consumption, by gender, July 2020
- Wine is the at-home drink of choice for elusive 22-24 set
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- Figure 46: Alcohol consumption, by age, July 2020
- In engaging Hispanics, focus on Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 47: Alcohol consumption, by Hispanic origin and generation, July 2020
- Consumption’s tie to income requires vigilance during uncertain times
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- Figure 48: Alcohol consumption, by HH income, July 2020
- Parents are a core wine drinking audience
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- Figure 49: Alcohol consumption, by parental status, July 2020
Wine Consumption Frequency
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- 13% of wine drinkers do so daily
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- Figure 50: Wine consumption frequency, July 2020
- Convenience can help build appeal among frequent male drinkers of wine
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- Figure 51: Wine consumption frequency, by gender, July 2020
- Close to one in five parents drink wine daily
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- Figure 52: Wine consumption frequency, by parental status, July 2020
- Wine brands can reach the majority of under 45s multiple times per week
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- Figure 53: Wine consumption frequency, by age, July 2020
- Frequent consumption correlates with household income
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- Figure 54: Wine consumption frequency, by HH income, July 2020
Factors Important in Wine Choice
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- Consumers want a quick and easy way to know what to expect
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- Figure 55: Important factors, July 2020
- Women are especially on the lookout for taste expectations
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- Figure 56: Important factors, by gender, July 2020
- Appeal to younger consumers with design and recommendations
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- Figure 57: Important factors, by age, July 2020
- Rosé drinkers want it to look good and to be told it is good
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- Figure 58: Important factors, by wine type consumed – Color, July 2020
- Dessert wines could benefit from some promotion and packaging flare
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- Figure 59: Top three fortified/other wine launches ranked by appealing packaging, January 2019-August 2020
- Figure 60: Important factors, by wine type consumed, July 2020
- Experts are driven by brand; beginners can be wooed by a deal
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- Figure 61: Important factors, by wine knowledge, July 2020
- Frequent drinkers don’t eschew design, health
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- Figure 62: Important factors, by wine consumption frequency, July 2020
Wine Type Consumed
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- Red wins out slightly to white
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- Figure 63: Wine type consumed, July 2020
- Red’s popularity bolstered by versatility; all types should play to strengths
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- Figure 64: Wine type consumed, by alcohol motivation, July 2020
- Wine cocktails see strongest surge
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- Figure 65: Wine type consumed, July 2019 and July 2020
- Start with women in the wine cocktail movement
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- Figure 66: Wine type consumed, by gender, July 2020
- Wine cocktails are a strong point of entry for newer drinkers
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- Figure 67: Wine type consumed, by age, July 2020
- Rosé is a strong candidate for cocktails/RTDs
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- Figure 68: Select wine types, by select wine types, July 2020
- Court Hispanic drinkers with reds, wine cocktails
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- Figure 69: Wine type consumed, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Daily drinkers are most likely to drink white wine
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- Figure 70: Wine type consumed, by wine consumption frequency, July 2020
- A higher percentage of wine drinkers drink domestic varieties
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- Figure 71: Wine type, by provenance, July 2020
Wine Formats Purchased
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- Standard bottles still rule; growth points to casualization and convenience
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- Figure 72: Wine formats purchased, July 2019 and 2020
- $11-20 is the wine sweet spot
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- Figure 73: Wine price point, July 2020
Wine Knowledge and Exploration
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- More than a third of wine drinkers consider themselves to be beginners
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- Figure 74: Wine knowledge, July 2020
- Men are three times as likely as women to consider themselves experts
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- Figure 75: Wine knowledge, by gender, July 2020
- Younger drinkers show some confidence in their wine knowledge
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- Figure 76: Wine knowledge, by age, July 2020
- Enlarging the base of Hispanic wine drinkers may require confidence boost
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- Figure 77: Wine knowledge, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
- One in five daily wine drinkers consider themselves beginners
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- Figure 78: Wine knowledge, by wine consumption frequency, July 2020
- Education will be a strong means of engagement
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- Figure 79: Wine exploration, July 2020
- Retain younger drinkers through education
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- Figure 80: Wine exploration, by age, July 2020
- Daily drinkers are a good place to start for exploration
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- Figure 81: Wine exploration, by wine consumption frequency, July 2020
Alcohol Statements
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- Flavor leads wine drinkers’ alcohol choice; event type has outsized impact
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- Figure 82: Alcohol statements – Choice drivers – Any agree, by wine consumption, July 2020
- Wine brands need to own occasions to appeal to younger drinkers
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- Figure 83: Alcohol statements – Choice drivers – Any agree, by age, July 2020
- Wine drinkers are more likely than average to support small brands
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- Figure 84: Alcohol statements – Brand – Any agree, by wine consumption, July 2020
- Brand-conscious men can provide a strong ground for experimentation
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- Figure 85: Alcohol statements – Brand – Any agree, by gender, July 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- CHAID methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 86: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2015-23
- Figure 87: Total US volume sales and forecast of table wine, 2015-23
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- Figure 88: Total US volume sales and forecast of champagne/sparkling wine, 2015-23
- Figure 89: Total US volume sales and forecast of dessert & fortified wine, 2015-23
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- Figure 90: Total US volume sales and forecast of vermouth & aperitif, 2015-23
- Figure 91: US volume sales of wine, by origin, 2015-19
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- Figure 92: US volume sales of table wine, by origin, 2015-19
- Figure 93: US volume sales of champagne/sparkling wine, by origin, 2015-19
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- Figure 94: US volume sales of dessert and fortified wine, by origin, 2015-19
- Figure 95: US volume sales of vermouth and aperitif, by origin, 2015-19
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- Figure 96: US volume sales of wine, by channel, 2015-19
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Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 97: US multi-outlet sales of wine, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 98: US multi-outlet sales of domestic table/still wine, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 99: US multi-outlet sales of imported table/still wine, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 100: US multi-outlet sales of sherry/vermouth/champagne, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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