Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definition
- COVID-19: US context
- Economic and other assumptions
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Pandemic and recession drives steep decline in foodservice revenues
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice and young adult diners
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on foodservice and young adult diners, September 2020
- Challenges
- Delivery and pickup infrastructure is vital for FSRs to attract multicultural young adult diners
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- Figure 3: Foodservice categories patronized among young adults – Nets, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Restaurants need to give diners the pre-pandemic feeling as safely as they can
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- Figure 4: Features missed about the dining experience among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Breakfast and lunch outlets have to be cleaner, innovative, and budget-minded
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- Figure 5: Attitudes about breakfast and lunch among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Opportunities
- Developing a “clean” reputation will win young multicultural diners
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- Figure 6: Sanitation features wanted among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Investing in tech to stand out from competition
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- Figure 7: Desired in-establishment tech among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Be authentic to meet multicultural young adult values
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- Figure 8: Attitudes about authentic cuisine among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- What’s next
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- The US is becoming more diverse
- Fear of COVID-19 keeps foodservice revenues down
- QSRs, takeout and delivery more important for multicultural segments
- Foodservice lines are blurring
- The title of “safest restaurant” is up for grabs
Multicultural Young Adults by the Numbers
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- The US is becoming increasingly multicultural, Hispanics drive growth
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- Figure 9: Population distribution, by age, race and Hispanic origin, 2019
- Figure 10: Share of 18-34 year old population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2014-2024
- Fewer young adults living on their own indicates a pessimistic economic outlook
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- Figure 11: Living arrangements of young adults aged 18-34, 2016
Market Size and Forecast – Foodservice
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- COVID-19 batters foodservice industry revenues
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- Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 13: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 14: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2019-25 (prepared in September 2020)
- Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice and young adults
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- Figure 15: Comfort with restaurant dining – outside and inside, by age group, August 27-September 8, 2020
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- Figure 16: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on foodservice and young adult diners, September 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
- In consumers’ own words…
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- Figure 17: Unemployment rate, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2007-August 2020
Market Factors
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- Government assistance floats consumers as employment recovers
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- Figure 18: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007- August 2020
- Figure 19: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-August 2020
- Black and Hispanic young adults are in the tightest financial situation
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- Figure 20: Personal financial situation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
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- Figure 21: Fast food and budget among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, Fall 2015 and 2019
- COVID-19 has hit multicultural populations hard, affecting dining preference
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- Figure 22: Discomfort with dining out, by race and Hispanic origin, August 27-September 8, 2020
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- Figure 23: Difference between COVID-19 and unweighted/weighted* population, by race and Hispanic origin, September 2020
- Restaurants may still be a disease vector
- Independents may not have room to return
- Cold, coronavirus likely to drive up delivery
- Food startups led by immigrants face outsized difficulties
Market Opportunities
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- Foodservice is becoming a free-for-all
- Restaurants are redesigning for the drop off of dine-in
- Delivery companies pivot to groceries
- Chowbus hopes to ride an independent streak
- There aren’t established “safe” go-to food brands
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- Figure 24: COVID-19 behaviors among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Influencer marketing can be an effective marketing vector
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- Figure 25: Types of influencer accounts followed among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Popeyes seeks to distract
- Restaurants play with menus and the digital space
- Fine dining tried to hold onto experience
Digital Strategies
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- QSR Spotlight: Popeyes’ “Fried Chicken and Chill”
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- Figure 26: Popeyes #ThatPasswordFromPopeyes tweet, March 2020
- Fast Casual Spotlight: Chipotle
- FSR Spotlight: IHOP
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- Figure 27: IHOP Breakfast Family Feast Instagram post, April 2020
- Fine Dining Spotlight: Alinea
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Overview
- Black diners’ loyalty can be gained through service
- Young Hispanics are worried about disruption
- Asian consumers are the most concerned with sanitation
Key Consumer Trend Drivers
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- Wellbeing
- Technology
- Value
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- Figure 28: Mintel Trend Drivers – Wellbeing, Technology, and Value and Pillars
Foodservice Visitation and Frequency
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- Young adults are shying away from sit-downs
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- Figure 29: Foodservice categories patronized among young adults – Nets, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
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- Figure 30: Foodservice venues patronized among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Black diners are a valuable market for QSRs
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- Figure 31: Fast food and fast casual visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- FSRs receiving less patronage
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- Figure 32: Dine-in restaurant visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Prepared and ready-to-eat foods are a popular option
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- Figure 33: Prepared food outlet visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Coffee and tea shops enjoy repeat business, but face competition
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- Figure 34: Coffee/tea shop visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Black diners frequent independents when able
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- Figure 35: Independent restaurant visitation among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
Preferred Cuisines
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- Preferred cuisines often mirror diner’s heritage
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- Figure 36: Cuisines preferred among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
Missing the Dining Experience
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- Young diners miss normalcy
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- Figure 37: Features missed about the dining experience among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Diners seek full menus
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- Figure 38: Menu options missed about the dining experience among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
Reopening Desires
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- Diners believe safety lies in sanitation
- In consumers’ own words…
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- Figure 39: Sanitation features wanted among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Changes now will carry through post-pandemic
- In consumer’s own words…
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- Figure 40: Experiential features wanted among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Contactless pickup is here to stay
- Little difference in priorities based on background
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- Figure 41: TURF Analysis – Restaurant/cafe expectations among young adults, July 2020
Foodservice Tech
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- Ordering ahead is popular, and apps are the future
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- Figure 42: Desired ordering tech among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Foodservice brands have an opportunity to be tech leaders
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- Figure 43: Desired in-establishment tech among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
Attitudes toward Foodservice
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- Young adults support local eateries and express their identity through food
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- Figure 44: Attitudes about foodservice and identity among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Authenticity matters
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- Figure 45: Attitudes about authentic cuisine among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Lunch breaks are getting a tough break
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- Figure 46: Attitudes about dayparts among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Eateries must keep cleanliness and service in mind
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- Figure 47: Attitudes about service among young adults, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 48: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 49: COVID-19 exposure concerns, by 18-34s vs 35+, March 13-September 8, 2020
- TURF – Methodology
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- Figure 50: Table - TURF Analysis – Restaurant/cafe expectations – Black young adults, July 2020
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- Figure 49: Table - TURF Analysis – Restaurant/cafe expectations – Asian young adults, July 2020
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- Figure 49: Table - TURF Analysis – Restaurant/cafe expectations – Hispanic young adults, July 2020
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