Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on dark spirits and liqueurs
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dark spirits and liqueurs, 29 September 2020
- The market
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- Figure 2: Market size and forecast of total UK value sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, 2015-25
- The recession will take its toll on category spending
- A sharper focus on healthy lifestyles will also dampen demand
- Disruption to imports and exports to influence prices
- Companies and brands
- A raft of strong performances across dark spirits and liqueurs in retail in 2019-20
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ value sales in the UK retail whisky market, 2017/18-2019/20
- High levels of activity in spiced rum and liqueurs
- Diageo maintained its long-running lead in adspend in 2019
- Baileys has the strongest all-round image
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- Figure 4: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, August 2020
- The consumer
- Half of the population drink dark spirits
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- Figure 5: Usage of dark spirits and liqueurs, by age and gender, July 2020
- Under-45s and high-earners are the most prevalent drinkers
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- Figure 6: Usage frequency for dark spirits and liqueurs, by gender, July 2020
- A drop in usage across all types of dark spirits and liqueurs in 2020
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- Figure 7: Usage of dark spirits and liqueurs, by type, June 2019 and July 2020
- Smaller bottles can encourage experimentation; quality over quantity mindset prevails
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- Figure 8: Behaviours relating to dark spirits, July 2020
- Low-sugar NPD can encourage more usage of liqueurs
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- Figure 9: Behaviours relating to dark spirits and liqueurs, July 2020
- Figure 10: Interests relating to dark spirits and liqueurs, by gender, July 2020
- Mixers can play an important role in drinking experiences; unmet demand for low-/non-alcoholic options
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards dark spirits and liqueurs, July 2020
Issues and Insights
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- A need to push inspiration into the path of the consumer to capitalise on the COVID-19 cocktail-making boom
- Dark spirit/liqueur companies are missing a trick by ignoring the burgeoning low-/non-alcoholic drinks trend
- Pushing alternative mixers can make dark spirits more versatile and tap into interest in experimentation
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Volume decline in 2020 is minimal, yet values are slashed by a fifth
- Malt and imported whisky and non-cream liqueurs are the biggest winners in retail
- Recovery for value sales in 2021, but decline in volume sales set to endure
- The recession and renewed health focus will take their toll on category spending
- Disruption to imports and exports to influence prices
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on dark spirits and liqueurs
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- Figure 12: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dark spirits and liqueurs, 29 September 2020
- Volume sales stabilised in 2019; inflation driving value growth
- Volume decline in 2020 is minimal
- However, the market loses almost a fifth of its value in 2020
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- Figure 13: Market size for dark spirits and liqueurs (prepared on 29 September 2020), 2015-25
- Recovery for value sales, but decline in volume sales set to endure
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- Figure 14: Market size and forecast of total UK value sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, 2015-25
- Figure 15: Forecast of total UK volume sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, 2015-25
- The 2021 recession will take its toll
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 16: Annual growth in UK volume and value retail sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, 2009-13
- A sharper focus on healthy lifestyles will also damage demand
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 17: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast (prepared on 29 September 2020), 2015-25
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation and Channels to Market
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- Low share of volumes held by on-trade protect these in 2020
- Retail sales soar, with online, D2C and specialist retailers gaining ground
- Values in the on-trade set to fall by 44% in 2020
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- Figure 18: Value and volume sales and shares of dark spirits and liqueurs, by channel, 2017-20
- 2020 set to see double-digit growth in retail value sales across the board
- Malt and imported whisky are the big winners in dark spirits
- At-home cocktail making and NPD send sales of liqueurs rocketing
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- Figure 19: Value and volume sales and shares of dark spirits and liqueurs in retail, by segment, 2018-20
- A boost for liqueurs and rum in the on-trade in 2019
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- Figure 20: Value and volume sales and shares of dark spirits and liqueurs in the on-trade, by segment, 2018-20
Market Drivers
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- A picture of waning alcohol consumption
- Less alcohol consumed by the average consumer
- Young adults fuel the alcohol moderation trend
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- Figure 21: Frequency of drinking alcoholic drinks, by age and gender, November 2019
- Scotland’s MUP implementation hits alcohol sales
- Growing opportunities in low- and non-alcoholic drinks
- Consultation on alcohol calorie labelling as part of fight against obesity
- A move that would be welcomed by most young drinkers
- Nutritional labelling would address misconceptions over dark spirits’ sugar content
- Numerous factors influencing prices
- Duties frozen for all alcoholic drinks in the March 2020 budget
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- Figure 22: UK excise duty rates for alcoholic drinks, 2009-20
- US tariffs hit Scotch whisky exports
- Brexit disruption will also affect exports
- Exchange rates will also play a pivotal role in prices
- UK import tariffs on low-priced Caribbean rum to continue post-Brexit
- The government launches initiatives to support the hospitality industry
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Whyte & Mackay, Jameson and small brands are star performers in whisky
- Rapid growth for top five brands in rum, Captain Morgan the notable exception
- Jack Daniel’s returns to strong growth; Southern Comfort also benefiting from Americana trend
- The thriving spiced-rum segment attracts high levels of activity
- High-profile activity in cream liqueurs
- Gin liqueurs continue to be a hotbed of NPD
- Diageo enters new territory with plastic-free paper bottle for spirits
- Diageo maintained its long-running lead in adspend in 2019
- Baileys has the strongest all-round image
Market Share
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- The Famous Grouse grows ahead of the market…
- …as do ‘other’ brands
- Whyte & Mackay and Jameson are the star performers
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- Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail whisky market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Rapid growth for top five brands in rum, Captain Morgan the notable exception
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail golden/dark/spiced rum market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Courvoisier loses share in brandy/Cognac/Armagnac
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail brandy/Cognac/Armagnac market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Baileys is steady at the top in liqueurs
- Jack Daniel’s returns to strong growth
- Southern Comfort also benefits from Americana trend in whisky
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail liqueur market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- The thriving spiced-rum segment attracts high levels of activity
- Kopparberg pushes into rum segment
- BrewDog bridges the gap between gin and rum with a botanical rum
- New flavours added to the Dead Man’s Fingers range in 2020
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- Figure 27: Launches of flavoured spiced rum, 2019-20
- Captain Morgan launches festive Gingerbread Spiced edition
- Mainstream rum brands add more premium editions
- Havana Club creates Professional Edition rums for leading cocktail bars
- Mount Gay adds second rum to Master Blender range
- Whisky continues to attract activity from the music scene
- Bob Dylan’s whisky brand makes UK debut
- Motörhead moves into spirits
- More unconventional whiskies launch in the UK
- Abasolo launch marks a UK ‘first’ in Mexican whisky
- Kinahan’s launches ‘hybrid’ The Kasc Project whisky
- Jack Daniel’s introduces Tennessee Apple variant
- High-profile activity in cream liqueurs
- Baileys unveils limited-edition Red Velvet Cupcake flavour
- Disaronno forays into cream liqueurs with Velvet launch
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- Figure 28: Disaronno Velvet Liqueur, 2020
- Hotel Chocolat launch three new chocolate liqueurs
- Gin liqueurs continue to be a hotbed of NPD
- Two gin liqueurs added to The Lakes range
- Bombay Spirits launches gin liqueurs
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- Figure 29: Launches of gin liqueurs, 2019-20
- Own-label launches add a bit of sparkle
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- Figure 30: Launches of own-label gin liqueurs, 2019-20
- Brands up the ante on ‘green’ packaging credentials
- Diageo enters new territory with plastic-free paper bottle for spirits
- New brand Bush Rum boasts 100% recycled glass bottles
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Diageo maintains its long-running lead in adspend in 2019
- Haig Club continues “breaking the rules” theme
- Baileys celebrates 25th birthday of The Women’s Prize for Fiction
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- Figure 31: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on dark spirits and liqueurs, by leading advertisers, 2019-20
- Brown Forman becomes top advertiser in first half of 2020
- BBFB support launch of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple with TV spot…
- …and supports the social in social distancing
- Cointreau supports the hospitality industry in 2020…
- …and opens rooftop bar
- Major new ad campaign for Jameson in 2020
- Pernod Ricard supports its variety of brands
- A return to TV advertising for Glenlivet; showcasing the brand’s history
- Havana Club campaign promotes its Frozen Daiquiri serve
- The Famous Grouse showcases its ‘dark side’ in new campaign
- Kopparberg supports launch of Dark Fruit Spiced Rum
- Halewood runs afoul of the ASA for advertising CBD rum
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, August 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 33: Key metrics for selected brands, August 2020
- Brand attitudes: Baileys and Jack Daniel’s stand out on quality
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- Figure 34: Attitudes, by brand, August 2020
- Brand personality: Courvoisier is seen to be the most exclusive
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- Figure 35: Brand personality – macro image, August 2020
- Jameson leads on tradition; Jägermeister on being cool
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- Figure 36: Brand personality – micro image, August 2020
- Brand analysis
- Baileys has the strongest all-round image
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- Figure 37: User profile of Baileys, August 2020
- Captain Morgan is seen widely to be accessible and fun
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- Figure 38: User profile of Captain Morgan, August 2020
- Jack Daniel’s leads on authenticity
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- Figure 39: User profile of Jack Daniel’s, August 2020
- Courvoisier takes the lead on exclusivity, style and sophistication
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- Figure 40: User profile of Courvoisier, August 2020
- Jameson is seen to be the most traditional brand
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- Figure 41: User profile of Jameson, August 2020
- Jägermeister is seen as the most cool but most overrated
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- Figure 42: User profile of Jägermeister, August 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Half of the population drink dark spirits
- Under-45s and high-earners are the most prevalent drinkers
- A drop in usage across all types of dark spirits and liqueurs
- Smaller bottles can encourage experimentation
- The quality over quantity mindset prevails
- Low-sugar NPD can encourage more usage of liqueurs
- Interest in becoming more knowledgeable about cocktail making
- Mixers play an important role in a drinks’ appeal
- Unmet demand for low-/non-alcoholic dark spirits and liqueurs
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Lockdown saw one in five adults up their alcohol consumption
- Drinking dark spirits at home has become more appealing to two fifths of drinkers since the outbreak
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- Figure 43: Agreement that drinking dark spirits at home has become more appealing since the COVID-19 outbreak, by demographics, July 2020
- At-home cocktail making given a boost
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- Figure 44: Index of Google searches for ‘cocktail recipes’, September 2018- August 2020
- Overall, more fuel will be added to the alcohol moderation trend
- Pandemic and aftermath will increase focus on health
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- Figure 45: Consumers who say that health concerns would make them cut back on the amount of dark spirits/liqueurs they drinks, by gender and age, July 2020
- Obesity crisis will make people more wary of alcohol’s empty calories
- A hit to financial confidence will hit alcoholic drink spending
- Enduring wariness of public spaces will hamper on-trade’s recovery
- More cautious spending presents another barrier for the on-trade
- Boom in online shopping
- UK provenance becomes even more compelling
Usage of Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Half of the population drink dark spirits
- The sizeable gender gap in usage endures
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- Figure 46: Usage of dark spirits and liqueurs, by type, July 2020
- Under-45s and high-earners are the most prevalent drinkers
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- Figure 47: Usage of dark spirits and liqueurs, by age and gender, July 2020
- A third of users drink dark spirits weekly
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- Figure 48: Usage frequency for dark spirits and liqueurs, by gender, July 2020
- Cocktails and mixed drinks most popular among under-35s
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- Figure 49: Usage of dark spirits and liqueurs, by how they are drunk, by age and gender, July 2020
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- Figure 50: Usage of dark spirits and liqueurs, by type and how they are drunk, July 2020
Change and Expected Changes in Usage of Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- A drop in usage across all types of dark spirits and liqueurs
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- Figure 51: Usage of dark spirits and liqueurs, by type, June 2019 and July 2020
- Men, under-35s and those at both ends of the financial health spectrum have cut back
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- Figure 52: Usage of dark spirits and liqueurs, by selected demographics, June 2019 and July 2020
- Frequency of drinking takes a hit in 2020
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- Figure 53: Usage frequency for dark spirits and liqueurs, June 2019 and July 2020
- On balance more people anticipate drinking less over the next six months
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- Figure 54: Expectations for changes to the amount of dark spirits and liqueurs to be drunk over the next six months compared to the last six months, July 2020
- Younger people and the financially confident are most likely to expect to drink more
Behaviours Relating to Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Smaller bottles can encourage experimentation
- Smaller bottles could benefit from updating and reframing
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- Figure 55: Behaviours relating to dark spirits, July 2020
- Low-sugar NPD can encourage more usage of liqueurs
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- Figure 56: Behaviours relating to dark spirits and liqueurs, July 2020
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- Figure 57: Trulo reduced calories liqueurs, 2020
- The quality over quantity mindset prevails…
- …but both discounters and own-label can play in this space
Interests Relating to Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Interest in becoming more knowledgeable about cocktail making
- A need to put more cocktail inspiration into the path of the consumer
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- Figure 58: Interests relating to dark spirits and liqueurs, by gender, July 2020
- Online tutorials and on-pack suggestions can be effective
- Virtual tasting sessions appeal most to Millennials
- Online sessions are an opportunity to share information beyond taste
- Using different platforms can drive differentiation
Attitudes towards Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Mixers play an important role in a drinks’ appeal…
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- Figure 59: Launches of mixers for dark spirits, 2019
- …and can align with consumers’ desire to experiment with flavours
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- Figure 60: Attitudes towards dark spirits and liqueurs, July 2020
- Pushing alternative mixers can help dark spirits better tap into more drinking occasions…
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- Figure 61: Attitudes towards dark spirits and liqueurs, by usage of dark spirits, July 2020
- Still unmet demand for low-/non-alcoholic dark spirits and liqueurs
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- Figure 62: ISH Spirits RumISH Alcohol Free Spirit, 2019
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 63: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail whisky market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Figure 64: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail golden/dark/spiced rum market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
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- Figure 65: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail brandy/Cognac/Armagnac market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Figure 66: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail liqueurs market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
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