Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on Bread
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on bread, 29 September 2020
- The market
- COVID-19 provides boost to declining bread category
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- Figure 2: UK retail volume sales of bread (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- The recession and long-term boost to homeworking should benefit bread
- Income squeeze will limit value sales growth in 2021
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- Figure 3: UK retail value sales of bread (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- Pre-packed bread sees a boost from COVID-19
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- Figure 4: UK retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2018-20
- Companies and brands
- NPD pays off for Hovis and Roberts Bakery
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- Figure 5: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail pre-packed bread market, by value, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Warburtons boosts share in speciality bread and rolls
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- Figure 6: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail speciality breads and rolls market, by value, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Vegan claims continue to grow
- High/added fibre claims can gain from gut health trend
- Adspend relies on top four advertisers in 2019
- The consumer
- Bread buying is almost universal; packaged sliced loaves gain in 2020
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- Figure 7: Types of bread and bread products bought in the last month, June 2019 and July 2020
- Two in five people eat packaged sliced bread daily
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- Figure 8: Frequency of eating bread in the past month, July 2020
- Taste is top priority in bread
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- Figure 9: Choice factors of bread, July 2020
- No clear winner in appealing factors, but health-related attributes chime
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- Figure 10: Factors that most appeal when buying bread, July 2020
- Supporting British farmers appeals widely, snacking-friendly formats could help to tap into new occasions
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- Figure 11: Bread eating and buying behaviours, July 2020
- Value perception of sandwiches spells good news as recession hits, healthiness of bread is still an issue
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards bread, July 2020
COVID-19 and Bread
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- Impact on the market
- COVID-19 provides boost to declining bread category
- The recession and long-term boost to homeworking should benefit bread
- Impact on consumers
- Health brought into even greater focus due to COVID-19
- Increase in local shopping likely to benefit bakeries
- COVID-19 brings environment into further spotlight, but hygiene is paramount in the short term
- Impact on companies and brands
- Income squeeze will heighten competition in the bread category
- High/added fibre claims can gain from gut health trend
- Bread brands respond quickly to COVID-19 crisis
Issues and Insights
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- Supporting British farmers will gain relevance post COVID-19
- Recession and more working from home holds opportunities for bread
- High interest in international breads holds potential for further NPD
- Healthiness of bread is a concern for many
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 provides boost to declining bread category
- The recession and long-term boost to homeworking should benefit bread
- Income squeeze will limit value sales growth in 2021
- Pre-packed bread benefits from COVID-19
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on bread
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- Figure 13: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on bread, 29 September 2020
- COVID-19 provides a boost to declining bread category
- Bread volume sales have been on a downward trajectory
- Nationwide lockdown sees out-of-home bread consumption disappear overnight
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- Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of bread (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25 (prepared on 30 September 2020)
- The recession and long-term boost to homeworking should benefit bread
- Health concerns and consumers’ love of variety will limit COVID-19 boost
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- Figure 15: UK retail volume sales of bread (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- Income squeeze will limit value sales growth in 2021
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of bread (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 17: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 29 September 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 18: Value sales of bread and baked goods, 2008-12
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Pre-packed bread sees boost from COVID-19
- In-store bakeries hit hard by temporary closures
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- Figure 19: UK retail sales of bread, by segment, 2018-20
- White bread remains dominant but bread with bits continues to gain share
- Brown bread continues to struggle despite health benefits
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- Figure 20: UK retail value sales of prepacked bread, by types, 2018-20
- Speciality breads and rolls also reap benefits from more people at home
- Loss of restaurant occasions bring a boost for Indian meal breads
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- Figure 21: UK retail value sales of speciality bread and rolls, by types, 2018-20
Market Drivers
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- Planetary diet emphasises the importance of wholegrains
- PHE sets the bread industry further salt reduction targets
- Plans for sourdough code of practice receive mixed response
- Real Bread campaign claims plan will “hijack” the sourdough term
- Environmental impact of plastic packaging remains hot topic
- No-deal Brexit may lead to rise in wheat prices
- Incomes under pressure as recession hits
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- Figure 22: Annual percentage change in CPI and AWE (regular pay), monthly basis, January 2013-July 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- NPD pays off for Hovis and Roberts Bakery
- Warburtons gains share in speciality bread and rolls
- Vegan claims continue to grow
- High/added fibre claims can gain from gut health trend
- Top four advertisers take four fifths of spend in 2019
- Bread brands respond quickly to COVID-19 crisis on social media
Market Share
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- No boost to Kingsmill from upward trend of pre-packed bread
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- Figure 23: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Hovis outperforms the segment amidst rumours of sale
- Innovation pays off for Roberts Bakery
- Warburtons gains share of speciality bread and rolls
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- Figure 24: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2017/18-2019/20
- Enduring interest in Indian cuisine likely to have benefited Pataks, Sharwoods and The Clay Oven Bakery
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Vegan claims continue to grow
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- Figure 25: Share of launches in the bread market with a vegan/no animal ingredients claim, 2015-20
- Brands explore vegan versions of traditionally non-vegan bread products
- Probios Go Vegan! take on croissants
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- Figure 26: Examples of vegan versions of products which traditionally contain non-vegan ingredients, 2020
- The Bread Roll Co. emphasises British flour in vegan burger buns
- Modern Baker claims its vegan vegetable buns are ‘super’
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- Figure 27: Modern Baker vegan vegetable superbuns - UK, 2020
- New York Bakery Co emphasises vegan credentials as it enters free-from market
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- Figure 28: New York Bakery Co gluten-free original bagels emphasising vegan credentials, 2019
- High/added fibre claims can gain from gut health trend
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- Figure 29: Share of launches in the bread market with a high/added fibre or functional-digestive claim, 2015-2020
- Hovis launches Fabulous Fibre loaf…
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- Figure 30: Hovis Fabulous Fibre and Glorious Grains variants with gut health and immunity claims, 2020
- …while claiming to help the immune system with its Glorious Grains variant
- Genius combines gut-health claim with protein
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- Figure 31: Further examples of launches featuring high/added fibre and gut health claims in bread market, 2020
- The Food Doctor offers a Fibre Fix
- Calling out sourdough content continues to increase
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- Figure 32: Share of launches in the bread market that mention sourdough on pack, 2015-20
- Figure 33: Recent examples of bread products calling out sourdough content on-pack, 2020
- World breads remain an area of exploration for bread brands
- Deli Kitchen and M&S Food create fusion bread products
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- Figure 34: Deli Kitchen and M&S Food fusing different world cuisines together in bread products, 2020
- Flatbreads continue to see new variants from retailers…
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- Figure 35: Recent examples of flatbread NPD by retailers, 2020
- …while Old El Paso introduce a no-mess tortilla format
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- Figure 36: Old El Paso Tortilla Pockets, 2020
- Bread brands look to boost ethical and environment credentials
- Roberts Bakery turns to insects for Limited Edition launch
- Tesco tackled food waste
- Bread brands make changes to combat plastic waste
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- Figure 37: Tesco Perfectly Imperfect garlic slices – UK, 2019
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Top four advertisers take four fifths of spend in 2019
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- Figure 38: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by leading advertisers, 2019-Aug 2020
- Sourdough bread features in ‘You can taste when it’s Waitrose & Partners’ campaign
- New York Bagels sponsors Friends…
- …while Kingsmill uses The Simpsons to promote its Soft White loaf
- Roberts Bakery urges consumers to grab ‘some remarkable bakes’
- Bread brands respond quickly to COVID-19 crisis
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 39: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, August 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 40: Key metrics for selected brands, August 2020
- Warburtons scores highest on trust and quality
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- Figure 41: Attitudes, by brand, August 2020
- Genius is the most exclusive of the brands researched
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- Figure 42: Brand personality – macro image, August 2020
- New York Bakery is seen as most indulgent
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- Figure 43: Brand personality – micro image, August 2020
- Brand analysis
- Warburtons enjoys highest usage
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- Figure 44: User profile of Warburtons, August 2020
- Hovis seen as caring most about people’s health and wellbeing
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- Figure 45: User profile of Hovis, August 2020
- New York Bakery Co. should emphasise suitability for family meals
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- Figure 46: User profile of New York Bakery Co., August 2020
- Roberts suffers due to limited geographical presence
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- Figure 47: User profile of Roberts, August 2020
- Kingsmill seen as accessible by the majority
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- Figure 48: User profile of Kingsmill, August 2020
- Genius scores well for health and wellbeing
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- Figure 49: User profile of Genius, August 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Nationwide lockdown sees out-of-home eating occasions shift to the home
- Long-term working from home creates opportunities for increased usage
- Bread buying is almost universal; packaged sliced loaves gain in 2020
- Taste is dominant priority in bread
- No clear winner, but health-related factors chime
- Supporting British farmers will gain relevance post COVID-19
- Snacking-friendly formats could help to tap into new occasions
- Value perception of sandwiches spells good news as recession hits
- Three quarters think breads make international meals more enjoyable
- Healthiness of bread is still an issue
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Health is brought into even greater focus due to COVID-19
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- Figure 50: Healthy eating as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, 16 April -14 May 2020
- COVID-19 will boost interest in immunity benefits
- COVID-19 lockdown boosts popularity of baking
- Nationwide lockdown sees out-of-home eating occasions shift to the home
- Return of weekly shop will make bread’s shelf life more of a priority
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- Figure 51: Consumers who say they are trying to limit the time they spend in-store, 26 march- 28 August 2020
- Long-term working from home creates opportunities for increased usage
- Value image of bread likely to benefit market during recession…
- Increased interest in local community likely to benefit bakeries
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- Figure 52: Consumers who say they are shopping more from local businesses, 26 March- 28 August 2020
- COVID-19 brings environment into further spotlight, but hygiene is paramount for the short term
- Environment has become a higher priority for a quarter since COVID-19
Purchase and Usage of Bread
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- Bread buying is almost universal; packaged sliced loaves gain in 2020
- Soda bread loses out
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- Figure 53: Types of bread and bread products bought in the last month, June 2019 and 2020
- White bread remains the most popular…
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- Figure 54: Types of packaged sliced loaves bought in the last month, July 2020
- …but sourdough begins to make its mark on the category
- Nearly half have eaten at least four types of bread
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- Figure 55: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the past month, July 2020
- Two in five people eat packaged sliced bread daily…
- …whilst only 11% eat other types of bread at least daily
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- Figure 56: Frequency of eating bread in the past month, July 2020
Where People Buy Bread
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- Over three quarters have bought bread from supermarkets
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- Figure 57: Location of purchase of bread in the past month, July 2020
- Appeal of bakeries heightened by COVID-19
Choice Factors of Bread
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- Taste is dominant priority
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- Figure 58: Choice factors of bread, July 2020
- Healthier breads should not de-prioritise flavour
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- Figure 59: Franz Organic Willamette Valley Great Seeds Bread emphasising how seed content contributes to taste – USA, 2020
- Figure 60: Kingsmill 50/50 Soft White Bread with Hidden Wholegrain – UK, 2020
- Prioritisation of taste over price provides opportunities
- Price is important for 60%
Appealing Factors in Bread
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- No clear winner, but health-related factors chime
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- Figure 61: Factors that most appeal when buying bread, July 2020
- Wholegrain and high fibre both warrant visibility
- Making high/added fibre tangible can help to build standout
- Ageing population will boost high fibre
- Health benefits spark minority interest
- Long shelf life is appealing for 38%
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- Figure 62: Baker Street emphasising how its products last longer – UK, 2018
- Highlighting suitability for freezing can also help to reinforce long life messaging
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- Figure 63: Deli Kitchen placing suitability for freezing on front of pack, 2018
Bread Behaviours
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- Strong interest in supporting British farmers
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- Figure 64: Bread eating and buying behaviours, July 2020
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- Figure 65: Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference Brioche Burger Buns calling out use of British flour and butter, 2020
- Brands can highlight how much money is returned to the producers
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- Figure 66: Morrisons for Farmers British Whole Milk emphasising how much money goes back to the farmers, 2017
- Snacking-friendly formats could help to tap into new occasions
- Roberts Bakery launches a breakfast-inspired single-packed range
- ‘Mini’ positioning of bread formats may limit snacking connotations
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- Figure 67: Examples of ‘mini’ formats of bread products, 2020
- Inspiration can be taken from sweet baked goods…
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- Figure 68: Examples of snacking versions of cakes and sweet loaves, 2019-20
- …and international examples
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- Figure 69: International examples of snacking versions of pretzels, 2019-20
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- Figure 70: International examples of potential bread products in snacking formats, 2019-20
- Bread making kits from bread brands popular with 40%
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- Figure 71: Hovis Best of Both Bread & Roll Mix, 2020
- Bread mixes can utilise established reputations of bread brands
- Bread brands could take cues from meal and sauce kits…
- …and interest in foreign breads and sourdough trend
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- Figure 72: Examples of bread mixes with sourdough content - Germany, 2019-20
Attitudes Towards Bread
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- Value perception of sandwiches spells good news as recession hits
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- Figure 73: Attitudes towards bread, July 2020
- Bread brands can use social media to provide recipe inspiration
- Emphasising versatility will be important to compete in recessionary lunchtimes
- Three quarters think breads make international meals more enjoyable
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- Figure 74: International examples of Moroccan and Turkish bread products, 2019-20
- Evenings in and interest in frozen bake-at-home provide further opportunities
- Healthiness of bread is still an issue
- Making health benefits tangible will help to boost bread’s image
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 75: Leading manufacturers in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Figure 76: Leading manufacturers in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2017/18-2019/20
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Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 77: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by leading brands, Jan-Aug 2020
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