Table of Contents
Overview
-
- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definition
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
Executive Summary
-
- Top takeaways
- Market overview
-
- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on hot and cold cereal
-
- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on hot and cold cereal, September 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Re-emergence (July 2020–December 2021)
- Recovery (2022-2025)
-
- Figure 4: Healthy breakfast, April 2018
-
- Figure 5: Interest in cereal innovation, June 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
-
- COVID-19 gives cereal a much-needed, but fleeting boost
- A recession poses opportunities and challenges
- Jump on the snacking occasion
- Give parents a helping hand
Market Size and Forecast
-
- COVID-19 gives cereal sales a temporary lift
-
- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
- Macroeconomic Factors
-
- Figure 8: Expected US unemployment, 2019-2025
- Figure 9: Consumer sentiment index, January 2019-2020
- Impact of COVID-19 on hot and cold cereal
-
- Figure 10: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on hot and cold cereal, September 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
Segment Performance
-
- Segment boosts are short-term but will have a positive long-term impact
- Cold cereal falls into the same patterns, but with elevated sales
- Hot cereal sustains some growth before falling flat
-
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Market Factors
-
- Breakfast the most important meal of the day . . . again?
-
- Figure 12: Breakfast types, during COVID-19, June 2020
-
- Figure 13: Parental employment status during COVID-19, June 2020
- Fewer kids means fewer bowls of cereal
-
- Figure 14: Households, by presence of related children, 2009-19
- Online grocery retailing may prevent browsing
-
- Figure 15: Total US online sales and forecast of groceries*, at current prices, 2015-25
- PepsiCo tackles sequencing the oat genome
- Three’s a crowd: Post, Treehouse and the FTC
Market Opportunities
-
- Make it functional
-
- Figure 16: Indulgent cereal products
- Consider a pivot to snacking
-
- Figure 17: Kellogg’s Jumbo Snax
- Tap into baking
-
- Figure 18: Quaker baking posts
- Help parents through COVID-19 anxiety
-
- Figure 19: Worry over COVID-19 impact on lifestyle, July 28-August 4
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
-
- Small players outpace category leaders
- Hot cereal players should be on the lookout for private label
- A time for breakfast to shine
- Brands from other categories step into cereal
Market Share
-
- Small players pick up steam during COVID-19
-
- Figure 20: US multi-outlet sales of hot and cold cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Cold cereal growth concentrated in flagship brands and smaller players
-
- Figure 21: US multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Hot cereal brands see widespread success, thanks to a boost in breakfast
-
- Figure 22: US multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
-
- Appealing to breakfast priorities
-
- Figure 23: Important breakfast attributes, June 2020
-
- Figure 24: MULO sales of better-for-you cereal products, rolling 52 weeks 2019
- Cross-category indulgence has cross appeal
-
- Figure 25: Indulgent cereal products
- Pebbles lends parents a helping hand with Daily Yabba Dabba Doo series
-
- Figure 26: Pebbles cereal daily yabba dabba doo series
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
-
- Cereal maintains its place as a household staple
- COVID-19 highlights the convenience of cereal . . .
- . . . but breakfast competition remains steep
- Reinforce the fun of cereal
- Non-breakfast occasions need attention
- Balance health and flavor
Cereal Consumption
-
- Lightly sweetened cold cereal remains the popular choice
-
- Figure 27: Cereal consumption, NET, cereal consumption, June 2020
- Profile of the heavy, moderate and light cereal consumer
-
- Figure 28: Cereal consumption repertoire, by age and gender, parental status by gender and household size, June 2020
- Consumers age out of sweetened options
- Expand sweetened occasions to keep younger consumers engaged
- Increase BFY awareness to give older consumers more options
-
- Figure 29: Cereal consumption, by age, June 2020
Change in Cereal Consumption
-
- Most consumers hold steady for both hot and cold cereal
-
- Figure 30: Change in cereal consumption, NET, June 2020
- Health, flavor at play in changed consumption
-
- Figure 31: Change in cereal consumption, June 2020
-
- Figure 32: BFY cereals with fun flavors
- Maintain the momentum with young consumers, parents
-
- Figure 33: Change in cereal consumption, any cereal, by age, June 2020
- Figure 34: Change in cereal consumption, by parental status and gender, June 2020
Reasons for Increased Consumption
-
- COVID-19 behaviors influence consumption
-
- Figure 35: Reasons for increased consumption, June 2020
- Younger consumers leaning on cereal for ease, versatility
-
- Figure 36: Reasons for increased consumption, by age, June 2020
Reasons for Decreased Consumption
-
- Breakfast competition is steep
-
- Figure 37: Reasons for decreased consumption, June 2020
Cereal Attitudes
-
- The experience of cereal can be strengthened
-
- Figure 38: Cereal attitudes, June 2020
- Figure 39: Cereal attitudes, consumption repertoire, June 2020
- Engage young consumers with fun, older consumers with wellbeing
-
- Figure 40: Cereal attitudes, by age, June 2020
- Nutrient-dense options can edge into BFY snacking
-
- Figure 41: Cereal attitudes, by cereal consumption, June 2020
Cereal Occasions
-
- Lean into snacking, treating yourself
-
- Figure 42: Cereal usage, NET, June 2020
- Figure 43: Cereal usage, June 2020
- Encourage younger consumers to reach for cereal as a treat, older consumers to double down on breakfast
-
- Figure 44: Cereal usage, NET, by age, June 2020
- COVID-19 calls for recipe inspiration
-
- Figure 45: Cereal usage, by parental status and gender, June 2020
Interest in New Product Trial
-
- Inspire product trial with BFY
-
- Figure 46: Interest in new product trial, June 2020
- BFY innovation should stick to BFY cereals
-
- Figure 47: Innovation to drive trial by cereal consumption, June 2020
- TURF Analysis: Balance health and flavor
-
- Figure 48: TURF analysis – product features interest, June 2020
- Innovation will serve core users
-
- Figure 49: Innovation to drive trial, consumption repertoire, June 2020
- Play up the flavor experience for younger consumers
-
- Figure 50: Innovation to drive trial, by age, June 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
-
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
-
-
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
-
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal chart, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal chart, at current prices, 2015-25
-
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
-
Appendix – Retail Channels
-
-
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
-
- Figure 62: US supermarket sales of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 63: US sales of hot and cold cereal through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
-
Back to top