Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on fish and shellfish
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on fish and shellfish, 30 August 2020
- The market
- Inflation masks volatile volume sales performance over 2015-20
- Further inflation and volatile volume sales anticipated for 2020-25
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, 2015-25
- Ambient and frozen fish are main beneficiaries from COVID-19 lockdown
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- Figure 3: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by format, 2015-20
- Calls to action on marine conservation and sustainability
- UK’s trade relations post-Brexit are crucial for the category
- Companies and brands
- Own-label dominates sales in the chilled fish segment
- Own-label wins in frozen among rising inflation and uncertainty
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK frozen fish and shellfish market, by value, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Own-label grows value share in ambient to 50%
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- Figure 5: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK ambient fish and shellfish market, by value, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Sustainable claims are widespread in fish/shellfish
- High protein is the most widespread health claim, but still only 14%
- Leading brands push meal occasions and quality in their marketing
- Brands respond to COVID-19 online
- The consumer
- Nine in 10 adults eat fish or shellfish
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- Figure 6: Usage of fish and shellfish, by type, June 2020
- Over half of people stick to only a few fish types
- Familiarity chimes for trying new products
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- Figure 7: Prompts to try a new fish/shellfish product, June 2020
- Ease of cooking and low price rate highly in product choice
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- Figure 8: Factors influencing choice of fish and shellfish, June 2020
- New species suggestions appeal to seven in 10 users/buyers
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- Figure 9: Fish and shellfish eating and buying behaviours, June 2020
- 29% have eaten plant-based fish alternatives
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- Figure 10: Fish and shellfish non-users’ behaviours, June 2020
- A third of buyers would buy less fish/shellfish if they had less money
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- Figure 11: Expected reactions to the recession, June 2020
- Opportunities for fish/shellfish to benefit from the meat reduction trend
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards fish and shellfish, June 2020
COVID-19 and Fish and Shellfish
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- Impact on the market
- Lockdowns cause price fluctuations and boost sales of frozen and ambient
- Fish and shellfish is set to lose out during the recession
- Impact on consumers
- Scratch cooking trend offers opportunities for the category…
- …as does consumers’ renewed health focus
- Greater urgency to prove commitment to sustainability
- Impact on companies and brands
- Own-label reaps the benefits of the growth in frozen and ambient
- Brands offer advice to consumers during the lockdown
- Growth in online retail opens up opportunities for more direct-to-consumer sales
Issues and Insights
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- Highlight fish’s functional benefits to harness consumers’ heightened health-consciousness in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
- Promote lesser-known species as a financially savvy and ethical choice
- Offer meal ideas to encourage more frequent usage
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Inflation masks volatile volume sales performance over 2015-20
- Further inflation and volatile volume sales anticipated for 2020-25
- Ambient and frozen fish are main beneficiaries from COVID-19 lockdown
- Calls to action on marine conservation and sustainability
- UK’s trade relations post-Brexit are crucial for the category
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on fish and shellfish
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- Figure 13: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on fish and shellfish, 30 August 2020
- Inflation masks volatile volume sales performance over 2015-20
- Rise in value and volume sales in 2020
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- Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales for fish and shellfish, 2015-25 (prepared on 27th August 2020)
- Further inflation and volume sales volatility expected for 2020-25
- Brexit to drive inflation in the category
- Volume sales to fall during recession…
- …but consumer health trend should offer some, though diminishing support
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, 2015-25
- Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 17: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 27th August 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 18: UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, by value and volume, 2005-10
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Falling prices prompt a modest rise in chilled fish volume sales in 2020
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- Figure 19: Value and volume sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2015-20
- Frozen products benefit from the national lockdown
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- Figure 20: Value and volume sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2015-20
- Ambient products see a renaissance in 2020
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- Figure 21: Value and volume sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2015-20
Market Drivers
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- Fish prices prove volatile over 2018-20
- Environmental issues impact the category
- Parliamentary committee urges the government to take action on marine conservation
- WWF criticises EU for ‘missing deadline’ on sustainability targets
- Concerns grow as stocks of popular fish species fall
- Supermarkets slammed over fish farming’s impact on marine ecosystems
- UK’s trade relations post-Brexit are crucial for the category
- Decline in the child population will hinder the category
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- Figure 22: Weekly or more frequent usage of fish, by type, by parents and non-parents, June 2020
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- Figure 23: Weekly or more frequent usage of shellfish, by type, by parents and non-parents, June 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Own-label dominates sales in the chilled fish segment
- Own-label wins in frozen among rising inflation and uncertainty
- Own-label grows value share in ambient to 50%
- Sustainable claims are widespread in fish/shellfish
- High protein is the most widespread health claim, but still only 14%
- Leading brands push meal occasions and quality in their marketing
- Brands respond to COVID-19 online
Market Share
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- Own-label dominates sales in the chilled fish segment
- Own-label reaps the benefits of frozen fish’s 2020 sales boom
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK frozen fish and shellfish market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
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- Figure 25: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK frozen fish and shellfish market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Own-label is the chief beneficiary of ambient fish’s 2020 renaissance
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK ambient fish and shellfish market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Figure 27: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK ambient fish and shellfish market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Sustainable claims are widespread in fish/shellfish
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- Figure 28: Share of new product launches in the UK fish and shellfish market with ethical and environmental claims, 2016-20 (sorted by 2019)
- Fish Said Fred claims UK first with ASC-certified sea bass and bream
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- Figure 29: Example of the Fish Said Fred range, 2020
- Brands and retailers look to make their environmental credentials more tangible
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- Figure 30: Examples of fish/shellfish launches giving on-pack details of their environmental policies, 2019-20
- Putting the spotlight on lesser-known species
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- Figure 31: Iceland’s What the Fish? range gives the limelight to lesser-known fish species, 2018
- Brands and retailers take action on plastic
- Princes replaces plastic with cardboard on its tuna multipacks
- Lidl introduces new packaging made partly from salvaged ocean plastic
- Waitrose explores packaging made from langoustine shells
- Waitrose claims UK first by selling British shellfish originally destined for restaurants
- High protein is the most widespread health claim, but still only 14%
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- Figure 32: Share of new product launches in the UK fish and shellfish market with health claims, 2016-20 (sorted by 2019)
- Brands and retailers emphasise the health credentials of fish-in-sauce products
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- Figure 33: Examples of fish-in-sauce/marinade launches with high-protein claims, 2020
- Young’s puts the focus on permissibility with reduced fat battered product
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- Figure 34: Young’s launches reduced fat battered fish product, 2020
- Functional health claims are underexplored in the fish/shellfish category
- Highlight selenium in fish to tap into increased consumer interest in immune health
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- Figure 35: The Big Prawn Company’s lobster makes immune health claim, 2019
- Put a stronger emphasis on oily fish’s links with brain and eye health
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- Figure 36: Waitrose & Partners Scrumptious Summer Thai Salmon Burgers making functional health claims relating to omega-3, 2020
- Modest rise in premium claims in 2019
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- Figure 37: Share of new product launches in the UK fish and shellfish market with a premium claim, 2016-20
- Brands and retailers explore alternatives to standard breadcrumbs
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- Figure 38: Examples of coated fish/shellfish products using alternatives to standard breadcrumbs, 2019-20
- Opportunities for link-ups with craft brands on beer-battered fish
- M&S launches what it terms its ‘best ever’ fish cake
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- Figure 39: Examples of premium own-label fish launches, 2020
- Smoked mackerel launch pushes seasonality
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- Figure 40: Smoked mackerel launch references seasonality, 2020
- Private label leads on launch activity
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- Figure 41: New product launches in the UK fish and shellfish market, by private label and branded, 2016-20
- Spar launches its own chilled fish range
- New formats offer potential competition for processed meat products
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- Figure 42: Examples of own-label fish products in formats normally seen in the processed meat category, 2020
- Exploring international flavours
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- Figure 43: Examples of fish/shellfish launches with international flavours, 2019-20
- Brands look to attract new users
- Young’s redesigns its packaging to appeal to foodies…
- …and launches new product designed to appeal to teenagers
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- Figure 44: Young’s looks to appeal to teenagers with fish ‘quarter pounders’, 2020
- Princes launches new products intended to ‘meet the needs of modern family life’
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- Figure 45: New product launches from Princes, 2019
- John West launches its first children’s product
- Young’s extends its chilled fish offering
- Birds Eye launches extra-large fish fingers
- Brands and retailers release fish substitute products
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- Figure 46: Examples of fish substitutes launches, 2019
- Ambient fish alternatives gain supermarket listings
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Retailers lead on advertising in 2019
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- Figure 47: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, 2019 and 2020
- Birds Eye is the biggest individual spender in 2019
- TV adverts highlight products’ wholesome credentials
- ‘Follow the Fish’ initiative marks MSC certification
- Website offers suggestions on how to keep children entertained during the lockdown
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- Figure 48: Banner headline for section of Birds Eye website giving advice on activities for children, 2020
- Making fish finger sandwiches promoted as a ‘fun and filling lunchtime activity’
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- Figure 49: Instagram post from Birds Eye promoting its fish finger sandwich recipes, 2020
- Interactive campaign pushes the money-saving aspects of frozen food
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- Figure 50: Facebook post from Birds Eye promoting the winner of its ‘Frozen Food Heroes’ competition, 2020
- Princes focuses on meal occasions and promotes its ethical credentials
- Mackerel Sizzle presented as a convenient and healthy evening meal option
- Recipe suggestions promoted as allowing people to ‘make the most of what you have’
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- Figure 51: Instagram post by Princes, 23 March 2020
- Charity link-ups during the pandemic should have generated consumer goodwill
- Packaging redesign portrayed as helping to preserve environment for future generations
- Young’s 2020 campaign pushes fish’s versatility
- TV advert highlights brand’s heritage and encourages people to ‘master mealtimes’
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- Figure 52: Young’s ‘Masters of Fish’ TV advert, 2020
- ‘Young’s Kitchen’ campaign offers recipes and tips
- Selected supermarket campaigns
- Asda positions fish as helping people to make a healthy start to the New Year…
- …and praises frozen fish as a good value and ethical option
- Lidl promotes its use of salvaged ocean plastic in packaging
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- Figure 53: Lidl press advert promoting its use of salvaged ocean plastic in packaging for its chilled fish range, 2020
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Nine in 10 adults eat fish or shellfish
- Over half of people stick to only a few fish types
- Ease of cooking appeals widely
- New species suggestions interest two in three
- 29% of fish/shellfish non-users have eaten plant-based fish alternatives
- A third of buyers would buy less fish/shellfish if they had less money
- Opportunities for fish/shellfish to benefit from the meat reduction trend
- Sourcing from unpolluted waters chimes widely
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviours
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- Offer recipe suggestions to capitalise on the growth in scratch cooking
- Lockdown sees uplift in scratch cooking
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- Figure 54: Changes to cooking from scratch since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by age and gender, 23 April-7 May 2020
- Fish and shellfish can capitalise on the cooking trend
- Tinned products have the chance to shine
- Strong interest in tinned food from parents, recession should boost appeal
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- Figure 55: Those expressing an increased interest in a greater variety of tinned food since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by age of children in the household, May 2020
- Increased consumer health focus provides opportunities for the category
- A stronger focus on fish/shellfish’s immune health benefits is needed
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- Figure 56: Those saying they had become more interested in foods that support the immune system, by age of children in the household, May 2020
- Growth in online retail opens up opportunities for more direct-to-consumer sales
- Increased interest in buying local boosts fishmongers
- Consumers’ renewed environmental focus poses a challenge and an opportunity
- Plant-based fish alternatives have the chance to grow
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- Figure 57: Agreement that the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak has made a vegan diet more appealing, by age, 23 April -7 May 2020
Usage of Fish and Shellfish
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- Nine in 10 adults eat fish or shellfish
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- Figure 58: Usage of fish and shellfish, by type, June 2020
- Over-55s are higher users of fish and shellfish…
- …but parents of under-16s are the most frequent users
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- Figure 59: Weekly or more frequent usage of fish, by type, by parents and non-parents, June 2020
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- Figure 60: Weekly or more frequent usage of shellfish, by type, by parents and non-parents, June 2020
- Frozen formats lead for fish, while frozen and ambient are neck-and-neck for shellfish
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- Figure 61: Usage of fish and shellfish, by format, June 2020
- Consumers’ financial health is crucial to the category
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- Figure 62: Usage of fish, by type, by those with ‘healthy’ vs those with ‘tight’ finances, June 2020
- Figure 63: Usage of shellfish, by type, by those with ‘healthy’ vs those with ‘tight’ finances, June 2020
Usage Frequency for Fish and Shellfish
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- Most adults eat fish and shellfish only occasionally
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- Figure 64: Usage frequency for fish, by format, June 2020
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- Figure 65: Usage frequency for shellfish, by format, June 2020
- Many people use different formats and types to get their two portions a week
- Recipe suggestions should help to encourage more frequent usage of shellfish
Buying Factors for Fish and Shellfish
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- Over half of people stick to only a few fish types
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- Figure 66: Fish/shellfish buying habits, June 2020
- People with tight finances are more likely to buy a wide range of different types
- Many people are open to trying new products
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- Figure 67: Prompts to try a new fish/shellfish product, June 2020
- Similarity to their favourite fish/shellfish types sways four in 10
- Supporting British fisheries is particularly important to over-55s
- Combine ‘support British fisheries’ and sustainable claims to strengthen ethical image
- Ease of cooking is valued by many
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- Figure 68: Factors influencing choice of fish and shellfish, June 2020
- Highlight ease and speed more prominently on-pack
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- Figure 69: Waitrose & Partners Easy to Cook Scottish Salmon emphasising ease and speed on-pack, 2020
- Scope for expansion in cook-in-the-bag formats
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- Figure 70: International examples of whole fish products promoted as a convenient option, 2019
- Recipe suggestions would help companies to tap into the rise in home cooking
- Price is a key buying factor for fish/shellfish
- Sustainability concerns underpin some consumers’ wide repertoires
Fish and Shellfish Eating and Buying Behaviours
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- New species suggestions appeal to seven in 10 users/buyers
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- Figure 71: Fish and shellfish eating and buying behaviours, June 2020
- Use online channels to promote different species
- Highlight the ethical aspects of choosing alternatives to popular species
- Half of buyers check for sustainability labels on-pack
- Need to make sustainability claims more tangible
- UK and European companies look to demonstrate their environmental commitments
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- Figure 72: International examples of shellfish products with on-pack environmental statements, 2019-20
- 48% of users try to eat two portions of fish/shellfish a week
- Need to educate consumers on the importance on fish/shellfish’s health benefits
Non-users’ Behaviours
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- 29% have eaten plant-based fish alternatives
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- Figure 73: Fish and shellfish non-users’ behaviours, June 2020
- Promote the environmental benefits of fish alternatives to boost usage
- Develop more fortified products to strengthen fish alternatives’ health image
Expected Reactions to the Recession
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- A third of buyers would buy less, while 38% would wait for promotions
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- Figure 74: Expected reactions to the recession, June 2020
- Frozen products set to get more of a sales boost than canned
- A quarter of people who would buy frozen more would also buy canned more
- Need to promote tinned fish as a good value option that also delivers quality and taste
- A stronger focus on provenance would help to build quality image
Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish
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- Fish or shellfish sourced from unpolluted waters appeal to many
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- Figure 75: Attitudes towards fish and shellfish, June 2020
- Supplement sustainable sourcing claims with clean water claims
- Producers of farmed fish must underline their care for their fish and the environment
- Opportunities for fish/shellfish to benefit from the meat reduction trend
- Over-55s are especially likely to see fish as a healthy alternative to meat
- Direct comparisons with meat should help to strengthen fish’s health image
- 47% of users see fish/shellfish as an environmentally friendly alternative to meat
- Sauces are valuable in boosting fish/shellfish’s appeal
- Opportunities for cross-promotions
- Need to reassure consumers of frozen fish/shellfish’s quality
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- Figure 76: Examples of premium own-label frozen fish/shellfish products with a clear window on-pack showing the contents, 2020
- Opportunities for breaded/battered products with a clean-label focus
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- Figure 77: International examples of frozen breaded/battered fish products highlighting their simple ingredients, 2019-20
- Explain the reasons for use of additional ingredients
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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