Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definitions
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total travel industry revenue and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on travel
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on travel, August 2020
- Challenges
- Travel is reliant on virus containment
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- Figure 3: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Comfort with travel types, May 2020
- Travelers want to control their distance
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- Figure 4: Attitudes toward post-pandemic travel
- Once-promising cruise trends are reversing
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- Figure 5: Comfort with cruises, by age group, May 2020
- Opportunities
- Safety, safety, safety
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- Figure 6: Desired COVID-related measures undertaken by providers, May 2020
- Young travelers are key to recovery
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- Figure 7: Comfort with travel options, May 2020
- Luxury-capable travelers may be willing to pay for privacy
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- Figure 8: Comfort with activities, by age group, May 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Travel has a tough road ahead
- Accommodations are the best of bad situations
- The industry will only recover with the economy
- Road trips and the Great Outdoors are winning right now
- Disney blazes a trail for other destinations
Market Size and Forecast
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- Travel is hurting, with a long journey to recovery
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- Figure 9: Total travel industry revenue and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
- Airlines experience record losses
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- Figure 10: Revenue and load factor for major US carriers, Q2 2020
- Accommodations are a dim bright spot
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- Figure 11: Hotel revenue, occupancy and RevPAR changes, Q2 2019-20
- Cruises have been the hardest hit
- COVID-19 forced mass cancellations
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- Figure 12: COVID-19 travel cancellations, May 2020
- Demand for travel persists
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- Figure 13: COVID-19’s effect on travel plans, May 2020
Market Factors
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- Uptick in worry can preclude travel
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- Figure 14: Coronavirus exposure concern, March 13-July 7, 2020
- Personal financial outlook depends on economic response
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- Figure 15: Current financial situation, April 16-July 22, 2020
- Unemployment compounds pandemic problems
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- Figure 16: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007- June 2020
- Low consumer confidence jeopardizes recovery
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- Figure 17: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-June 2020
- Rising cases can continue to hamper travel
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- Figure 18: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases, March-July 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Consumers are increasingly antsy for an escape
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- Figure 19: Eagerness to go on vacation post-COVID, April 16-July 7, 2020
- Low gas prices encourage road tripping
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- Figure 20: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-June 2020
- Travelers are becoming accustomed to masks
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- Figure 21: Incidence of mask wearing, April 16-July 22, 2020
- Disney’s reopening can illustrate required steps (and missteps)
- Private outdoor spaces can offer a feeling of safety
Competitive Outlook – Key Takeaways
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- Air travel has to contend with planes and terminals
- Betting on friends helps Volaris
- Cleanliness gets official
- Safety will be the new premium
- Destinations have an opportunity to address global concerns
What’s Happening
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- EU bans travel from the US
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- Figure 22: Comfort with traveling, May 2020
- Airlines under fire for opening
- Airline trade groups focus on the terminal as a source of mitigating transmission
- Volaris concentrates on friends and family
- Travel brands branding cleanliness
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- Figure 23: United Airlines “United CleanPlus” announcement, May 2020
- Sonder’s model makes it less vulnerable to the pandemic
- UK releases nationalized industry standard to promote local travel
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- Figure 24: Visit York #WereGoodtoGo announcement
- Fandom may give cruises a lifeline
Travel’s “Next Normal”
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- What travel looks like in a post-COVID world
- Wellbeing
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- Figure 25: Mintel Global Trend Driver – Wellbeing
- Value
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- Figure 26: Mintel Global Trend Driver – Value
- Surroundings
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- Figure 27: Mintel Global Trend Driver – Surroundings
- Technology
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- Figure 28: Mintel Global Trend Driver – Technology
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Social distancing makes road trips a popular option
- Airlines are avoided, but missed
- Hotels are trusted accommodations
- Alarms are sounding for the cruise industry
- Activities will have to limit group sizes
- Business travel no longer a perk of the job
- Travelers want to reconnect with loved ones
- Safety is the key to trust
Attitudes toward Post-pandemic Travel
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- Road trips feel like the safest form of travel
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- Figure 29: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Comfort with travel types, May 2020
- People are concerned with being near other travelers
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- Figure 30: Attitudes toward post-pandemic travel
- Consumer thoughts on planning travel post-pandemic
- With age comes more caution
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- Figure 31: Attitudes toward post-pandemic travel, by age, May 2020
- Opportunity to recoup lost revenue in the off-season
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- Figure 32: Attitudes toward off-peak spending, by HHI, May 2020
Transportation
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- Planes, trains behind automobiles
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- Figure 33: Comfort with transportation options, May 2020
- Rural ready to drive, but shy from flying
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- Figure 34: Comfort with transportation options, by area, May 2020
- Carriers should go younger, high-income for the time being
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- Figure 35: Comfort with plane travel, by age group and HHI, May 2020
- Frequent travelers are ready to get back in the habit
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- Figure 36: Comfort with plane travel, by trip frequency, May 2020
Accommodations
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- Travelers are most confident in hotels
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- Figure 37: Comfort with accommodation options, May 2020
- Homeshares’ best avenue is attracting young adults
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- Figure 38: Comfort with accommodation options, by age group May 2020
Cruises
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- Ships are in bad shape
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- Figure 39: Comfort with cruises, May 2020
- Industry threatens to lose important cruise segments
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- Figure 40: Comfort with cruises, by age group, May 2020
Events and Experiences
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- People want vaccines before seeing others
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- Figure 41: Comfort with activities and visiting destinations, May 2020
- Concern about tours rises with age, forcing companies to pivot younger
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- Figure 42: Comfort with activities, by age group, May 2020
- People with higher incomes are more wary of groups
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- Figure 43: Comfort with activities, by age group, May 2020
Business Travel
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- Business travelers aren’t eager to hit the road
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward business travel, May 2020
- Business travelers show less trepidation about certain travel activities
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- Figure 45: Willingness to engage in travel activities pre-vaccine, all travelers vs business travelers, May 2020
- Business travelers have higher safety standards than vacationers
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- Figure 46: Encouraging travel factors, business travelers, May 2020
- Business travelers look to brands for hygiene info
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- Figure 47: Desired information from travel providers, business travelers, May 2020
Reasons to Travel Post-COVID
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- Travelers are reaching out to loved ones
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- Figure 48: Reasons to travel post-pandemic, May 2020
- Budget travel isn’t just for budget travelers
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- Figure 49: Reasons to travel post-pandemic, by HHI, May 2020
- Older parents want normalcy, see opportunity
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- Figure 50: Reasons to travel post-pandemic, by HHI, May 2020
- The end of pandemic is cause to celebrate for younger travelers
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- Figure 51: Reasons to travel post-pandemic, by age group, May 2020
- Consumers talk about what they’ve missed
Encouraging Travel
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- Travelers want distance, not just miles
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- Figure 52: Desired COVID-related measures undertaken by providers, May 2020
- HHI breakpoint underscores need for viral mitigation
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- Figure 53: Desired COVID-related measures undertaken by providers, by HHI, May 2020
- What travelers want from brands
- People are most interested in COVID-related info
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- Figure 54: Desired information from travel providers, May 2020
- Hallmarks of encouragement give insight to the planning journey
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- Figure 55: TURF Analysis – Communications, May 2020
- Younger travelers show concern beyond disease
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- Figure 56: Desired information, by age, May 2020
- Higher-income travelers are assuaged by information
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- Figure 57: Desired information, by HHI, May 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 58: Total travel industry revenue and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 59: Business traveler comfort levels, May 2020
- Methodology
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- Figure 60: Table – TURF Analysis – Communications, May 2020
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- Figure 61: Table – TURF Analysis – Communications, May 2020
- Methodology
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- Figure 62: Comfort with travel types, May 2020
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