Table of Contents
Executive Summary
-
- The market
- Reintroduction of quarantine measure for arrivals from key holiday destinations expected to boost demand for staycations
-
- Figure 1: Forecast value of domestic holidays* taken by British residents, 2015-25 (prepared on 14 August 2020)
- Figure 2: Forecast value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2015-25 (prepared on 14 August 2020)
- Value deals alone will not be enough to convince price-sensitive traveller
- Mintel’s long-term outlook on the holiday market remains positive
- The impact of COVID-19 on travel
- Travel industry faces the biggest challenge in history with overseas travel taking the biggest hit
-
- Figure 3: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the UK travel market, 14 August 2020
- Companies and brands
- Consumers’ safety and protection have been central to company innovation
- More companies are working towards a greener comeback
- The consumer
- Booking intentions are creeping up, albeit at a slow pace
-
- Figure 4: Actual bookings and plans to book a holiday in the next three months, by age, January 2019 to July 2020 (fieldwork dates in July 2020: 2-11 July)
- Vaccine will be essential for recovery
-
- Figure 5: When consumers would consider holiday activities again, by destination, accommodation and holiday types, June 2020
- Longer-term outlook for London is positive, but capital faces headwinds in the short to medium term
- Recovery of overseas holidays heavily impacted following reintroduction of quarantine measures
- The US remains the most desired long-haul destination over the longer term
- Cancellation policy more important than rescheduling policy
-
- Figure 6: Preferred information regarding COVID-19, June 2020
- Various safety measures required to boost confidence in flying
-
- Figure 7: Preferred hygiene measures in hotels/resorts, airplanes and on cruises, June 2020
- Travel insurance an essential
-
- Figure 8: Attitudes towards the impact of COVID-19 on travel, June 2020
- Outdoor activities have become more important when promoting wellness breaks
The Impact of COVID-19 on Travel
-
- The market
- Reintroduction of quarantine measure for arrivals from key holiday destinations expected to boost demand for staycations
- Mintel’s long-term outlook on the holiday market remains positive
- The consumer
- Booking intentions are creeping up, albeit at a slow pace
- Vaccine will be essential for recovery
- Longer-term outlook for London is positive, but capital faces headwinds in the short to medium term
- Recovery of overseas holidays heavily impacted following reintroduction of quarantine measures
- Cancellation policy more important than rescheduling policy
- Enhanced cleaning and sanitisation considered a priority
- Companies and brands
- Consumers’ safety and protection have been central to company innovation
- More companies are working towards a greener comeback
Issues and Insights
-
- Enhanced customer service will help to gain a competitive advantage
- Return to nature has become a more important wellness theme
The Market – Key Takeaways
-
- Reintroduction of quarantine measures for key holiday destinations expected to boost demand for staycations
- Reassuring messages remain key
Market Size and Forecast – Domestic and Overseas Holidays
-
- Travel industry faces its biggest challenge in history with overseas travel taking the biggest hit
-
- Figure 9: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the UK travel market, 14 August 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- Recovery will be slow due to consumers’ concerns about their physical and financial wellbeing
- Mintel’s long-term outlook on the holiday market remains positive
- Reintroduction of quarantine measure for arrivals from key holiday destinations expected to boost demand for staycations
-
- Figure 10: Forecast volume of domestic holidays* taken by British residents, 2015-25 (prepared on 14 August 2020)
-
- Figure 11: Forecast value of domestic holidays* taken by British residents, 2015-25 (prepared on 14 August 2020)
- Figure 12: Forecast volume and value* of domestic holidays taken by British residents, 2015-25 (prepared on 14 August 2020)**
- Reintroduction of quarantine measures for key holiday destinations hits consumer confidence in travelling overseas
-
- Figure 13: Forecast volume of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2015-25 (prepared on 14 August 2020)
- Figure 14: Forecast value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2015-25 (prepared on 14 August 2020)
-
- Figure 15: Forecast volume and value* of overseas holidays taken by UK residents, 2015-25 (prepared on 14 August 2020)**
- Market drivers and assumptions
-
- Figure 16: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-2025 (prepared on 10 August 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
-
- Figure 17: Value sales of domestic and overseas holidays, 2009-15
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
-
- Consumers have started to feel the impact of COVID-19 on their finances
-
- Figure 18: Changes in financial situation, July 2019, March 2020 and July 2020
- Value deals alone will not be enough to convince price-sensitive travellers
-
- Figure 19: Financial confidence in the year ahead, July 2019, March 2020 and July 2020
- More key holiday destinations removed from the UK’s list of travel corridors
-
- Figure 20: Top 15 destinations for overseas holidays taken by UK residents, by volume in 2019
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
-
- Consumers’ safety and protection have been central to company innovation
- More companies are working towards a greener comeback
- Increased levels of stress create opportunities for wellbeing messages
Launch Activity and Innovation
-
- Increased customer protection offered in response to COVID-19
- Co-operative Travel promises a cash refund within 10 working days
- TUI offers pandemic cover at no extra cost
- Tools to encourage social distancing
- Manchester Airport is trialling a pre-booking system to reduce queue sizes
- Aerospace company develops AI-based inflight vending machine
- Travel brands invest in sustainable recovery
- Culture Trip and Lonely Planet use their influence to encourage responsible travel
- Hilton invests in sustainable travel and tourism in Africa
- Initiatives to help reduce stress caused by COVID-19
- Iceland campaign invites consumers to release stress
- Wellbeing Escapes launches online retreats during pandemic
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
-
- Consumers are still nervous about flying
- Appeal of outdoor activities in quieter areas remain high on consumers’ wish list
- Investments in customer service necessary to keep trust levels high
Impact of COVID-19 on Booking Intentions
-
- Booking intentions are creeping up, albeit at a slow pace
-
- Figure 21: Actual bookings and plans to book a holiday in the next three months, by age, January 2019 to July 2020 (fieldwork dates in July 2020: 2-11 July)
Impact of COVID-19 on Confidence in Travel
-
- Consumers are still nervous about flying
- Investments in customer service necessary to keep trust levels high
-
- Figure 22: Consumers’ confidence in holiday transport and accommodation types, 25 June 2020 to 7 August 2020)
Speed of Recovery
-
- Holiday rental properties likely to make gains on hotels
-
- Figure 23: When consumers would consider holiday activities, by destination, accommodation and holiday types, June 2020
- Vaccine will be essential for recovery
-
- Figure 24: When consumers would consider holiday activities again, by destination, accommodation and holiday types, June 2020
- Reputational damage for cruise holidays
- Cruise operators challenged to get younger generation on board
-
- Figure 25: Interest in activities once government travel restrictions are lifted, by age, June 2020
Considered Destinations over the Longer Term
-
- Longer-term outlook for London is positive, but capital faces headwinds in the short to medium term
-
- Figure 26: Considered UK holiday destinations in the next three years, June 2020
- Recovery of overseas holidays heavily impacted by reintroduction of quarantine measures
-
- Figure 27: Considered holiday destinations in Europe in the next three years, June 2020
- Italy and Greece could benefit from reintroduction of quarantine measures
-
- Figure 28: Intentions to visit short-haul destinations in the two years following June 2020, by intentions to visit other short-haul destinations
- The US remains the most desired long-haul destination over the longer term
-
- Figure 29: Considered holiday destinations outside Europe in the next three years, June 2020
COVID-19 Information Needs
-
- Cancellation policy more important than rescheduling policy
- Majority of travellers prefer to be informed about hygiene measures
-
- Figure 30: Preferred information regarding COVID-19, June 2020
- Older travellers require more extensive information regarding COVID-19
-
- Figure 31: Preferred information regarding COVID-19 – Repertoire, June 2020
Desired Safety Measures
-
- Enhanced cleaning and sanitisation considered a priority
-
- Figure 32: Preferred hygiene measures in hotels/resorts, airplanes and on cruises, June 2020
- Various safety measures required to boost confidence in flying
Attitudes Towards Travel
-
- Travel insurance an essential
-
- Figure 33: Attitudes towards the impact of COVID-19 on travel, June 2020
- COVID-19 has raised awareness on the environmental impact of travel
- Most consumers will not give up on holidaying…
- …but the pressure on companies to take action and expand greener travel options will increase
- Demand for advice through online channels expected to increase
-
- Figure 34: Attitudes towards travel agent advice, CHAID analysis, June 2020
- Older population have become more open to visiting lesser-known cities
-
- Figure 35: Interest in visiting lesser-known cities, May 2018 vs June 2020
- Outdoor activities have become more important when promoting wellness breaks
-
- Figure 36: Interest in taking wellness short breaks, June 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
-
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- CHAID analysis methodology
-
- Figure 37: Travel trends – CHAID – table output, June 2020
Back to top