Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Covered in this Report
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
Executive Summary
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- The market
- After a record box office year in 2019 theatres are expected to lose over £1 billion in ticketing spend in 2020
- 2025 attendances are forecast to still lag behind pre-COVID levels due to declining venues
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- Figure 1: UK theatre attendances, volume forecast as of 1 August 2020, 2015-25
- Figure 2: UK theatre box office revenue forecast as of 1 August 2020, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on performing arts
- Theatres have been among the last places to reopen and socially distanced performances may not be viable for many venues
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- Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on performing arts, short, medium and long term, 1 August 2020
- Companies and brands
- COVID-19 will affect both publicly subsidised and commercially run theatres
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- Figure 4: Leading commercial theatre companies, by turnover, July 2020
- COVID-19 has led to livestreaming and drive-in performances
- The consumer
- Over half of adults attended events prior to COVID-19
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- Figure 5: Performing arts attendance pre-COVID-19, June 2020
- Musicals are the largest revenue stream
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- Figure 6: Performing arts attendance pre-COVID-19, by type, June 2020
- Special Occasionals and Budget Regulars
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events, June 2020
- London theatre accounted for 60% of UK box office revenues in 2019
- Event cinema revenues grew 30% in 2019
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- Figure 8: Locations visited for performing arts events, June 2020
- Attracting female theatre lovers back is key to recovery
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- Figure 9: Who people typically attend performing arts events with, June 2020
- There is sufficient interest in socially distanced theatre if it proves viable
- Drive-in events could be here to stay
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events with social distancing, June 2020
- Strong future potential for event cinema, experience gifting and theatre breaks
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- Figure 11: Future performing arts opportunities, June 2020
- What we think
The Impact of COVID-19 on Performing Arts
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- The market
- COVID-19 likely to cost £1 billion in lost box office revenue in 2020
- Biggest threat is the pandemic itself rather than the recession
- Audiences will still lag pre-COVID levels in 2025
- The consumer
- Around a third of theatre-goers would attend any venue with social distancing
- Novelty of drive-in theatre has drawing power
- A third of those who streamed online during COVID-19 would pay to do so for live events in future
- Companies and brands
- 5,000 theatre job losses due to COVID-19 had been announced by early August 2020
- Tentative plans to reopen where possible
- COVID-19: Market context
Issues and Insights
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- Online streaming has gone from niche to mainstream
- Streaming has drawn in lapsed and occasional theatre-goers as well as regulars
- Could livestreaming offer a future revenue stream for a sector in crisis?
- Improvements in home technology are also helping to make livestreaming more attractive
- Like event cinema, livestreaming can help to increase engagement with ‘traditional’ theatre
- Livestreaming could help to make socially distanced events more viable
- Creating a sense of exclusivity can help to raise the value of livestreamed performances
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- 79% decline in box office revenue expected for 2020
- Attendances expected to still lag pre-COVID levels in 2025
- Record ticket spend of £1.3 billion prior to COVID-19…
- …and 2018-19 saw record demand levels for West End theatre
- Regional theatre attendances dipped slightly from 2015-19 but revenues were up
- Government bailout package will help ward off COVID catastrophe but impact will still be severe
- Theatres gear up for socially distanced reopening but doubts remain over viability
- Online streaming drew huge audiences in lockdown
- Event cinema surpasses £50 million value in 2019
Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
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- Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 12: Expected impact of COVID-19 on performing arts, short, medium and long term, 1 August 2020
- Public appetite for theatre shown by rising box office spend prior to COVID-19
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- Figure 13: UK theatre attendance and box office revenue, 2015-19
- Record capacity levels achieved in London theatre in 2019
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- Figure 14: London theatre attendance and box office revenue, 2015-19
- West End musicals accounted for 40% of UK theatre revenue in 2019
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- Figure 15: London theatre attendance, by type of performance, 2015-19
- Regional theatre revenues were up 16% from 2015-19
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- Figure 16: UK regional theatre attendance and box office revenue, 2015-19
- COVID-19 closures are likely to lead to around 80% decline in normal attendance in 2020
- Industry expected to lose £1 billion in lost ticket revenue in 2020
- Decline in inbound tourism and domestic city breaks will also affect demand
- Forecast assumptions
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- Figure 17: UK theatre attendance and box office revenue, historic and forecast, 2015-25
- Rising job losses threaten to elongate the ‘V-shaped’ COVID-19 recession
- Theatres performed well in the last recession
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- Figure 18: London theatre box office revenue, 2007-12
- Demand will return strongly once people feel safe, but a decline in venues will keep attendances below pre-COVID levels
- New work/life patterns will also present challenges and opportunities
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- Figure 19: UK theatre attendances, volume forecast as of 1 August 2020, 2015-25
- Figure 20: UK theatre box office revenue forecast as of 1 August 2020, 2015-25
Market Background
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- COVID-19 is having a devastating impact on theatres
- Government bailout package will help to ward off disaster…
- …but many concerns remain
- Road to recovery set out but destination arrival date remains unclear
- Open-air theatre permitted from July 2020
- Socially distanced indoor pilots began in July
- Some venues are planning to reopen when given the green light…
- …but lack of a ‘Stage Five’ target date puts Christmas panto season in jeopardy
- Theatres have embraced online streaming during lockdown
- NT at Home attracted 6 million UK streams during its first eight weeks
- The Shows Must Go On!
- RSC offered free content on BBC and paid content via Marquee TV
- Event cinema topped £50 million in 2019
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- Figure 21: UK & Ireland event cinema box office revenues, 2016-19
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- Figure 22: UK & Ireland event cinema top 10 box office revenue earners, 2019
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- The performing arts market is highly fragmented with a mix of revenue models
- Arts Council investment has been shifting from London towards the regions
- Big five commercial theatre groups
- Drive-in opera and theatre arrives in the UK
- Virtual theatre
Performing Arts Companies
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- Performing arts – a fragmented market
- Arts Council funding has been shifting from London to the regions
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- Figure 23: Top 25 ‘National Portfolio’ performing arts organisations in receipt of Arts Council England support (prior to COVID-19), 2018-22
- Leading subsidised organisations
- Royal Opera House
- The National Theatre
- Royal Shakespeare Company
- English National Opera
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- Figure 24: Leading publicly funded performing arts organisations, by revenue, July 2020
- Leading commercial theatre groups
- Delfont Mackintosh Theatres
- Ambassador Theatre Group
- LW Theatres
- Nederlander Theatres
- Nimax Theatres Limited
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- Figure 25: Leading commercial theatre companies, by turnover, July 2020
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Old Vic explores new revenue stream
- Pay-to-view from ROH
- Kitchen table sci-fi and other home theatre experiences
- The world’s first drive-in opera
- Drive-in musicals and horrible history
- Theatre in your back garden
- Immersive theatre and virtual reality will be other key post-COVID trends
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Growth in Millennial attendance
- Musicals are the most popular form
- Theatre-goers fall into two camps
- Event cinema is helping to increase engagement with traditional theatre
- Attracting women back to venues is a key challenge
- 37% of theatre-goers would attend any indoor venue with social distancing measures in place
- Event cinema, livestreaming, gift experiences and immersive theatre are all future opportunities
Performing Arts Attendance
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- 56% of adults went to performing arts events before COVID-19
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- Figure 26: Performing arts attendance pre-COVID-19, June 2020
- Millennial generation seeking live experiences
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- Figure 27: Those attending performing arts events at least twice a year, by generational group, June 2020
- 22% of Londoners attended an event at least once a month pre-COVID-19
- Musicals are the most popular type of event
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- Figure 28: Performing arts attendance pre-COVID-19, by type, June 2020
- Panto attracts the broadest socio-economic demographic
- Ballet/dance and opera attract the least socially diverse audiences
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- Figure 29: Demographic profile of those attending types of performing arts events, June 2020
- Women have the most varied performing arts diet
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- Figure 30: Number of performing arts event types attended, by gender and age, June 2020
- Opera and ballet/dance-goers are the most frequent visitors
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- Figure 31: Percentage of performing arts attendees who go at least once a month, by event type, June 2020
- Special Occasionals versus Budget Regulars
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- Figure 32: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events, June 2020
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- Figure 33: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events, by age, June 2020
Performing Arts Attendance – Locations
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- Major London venues attract visitors from across the UK
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- Figure 34: Locations visited for performing arts events, June 2020
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- Figure 35: Region of residence of GB visitors to London theatres, June 2020
- 62% of attendees go to venues in other UK towns/cities and 23% go to rural venues
- Event cinema-goers are also more likely than average to go to traditional theatres
- One in five attendees went to outdoor events pre-COVID-19
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- Figure 36: Locations visited for performing arts events, June 2020
Performing Arts Attendance – Companions
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- Women are the main drivers and decision-makers of performing arts attendance
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- Figure 37: Who people typically attend performing arts events with, June 2020
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- Figure 38: Age profile of children living with adults who visit performing arts events as a family, June 2020
- Multi-generational panto
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- Figure 39: Who people typically attend performing arts events with, by type of event, June 2020
- £75K+ household income group are three times more likely to go to theatre with work colleagues
Performing Arts – Online Viewing during COVID-19
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- Three in 10 adults have streamed events online during COVID-19
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- Figure 40: Online streaming of performing arts events during COVID-19, June 2020
- Millennials have been the biggest online viewers
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- Figure 41: Online streaming of performing arts events during COVID-19, by generational group, June 2020
- Almost half of ‘normal’ theatre-goers have streamed online events
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- Figure 42: Online streaming of performing arts events during COVID-19, by type of event-goer, June 2020
Attitudes towards Attendance when Venues Open
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- 37% of theatre-goers would visit any venue with social distancing measures
- Over-45s are significantly less likely to return to indoor venues until the crisis is over…
- …but some are more willing to attend outdoor events
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- Figure 43: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events with social distancing, June 2020
- Ballet/dance and opera buffs are the keenest to return
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- Figure 44: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events with social distancing, by type of event-goer, June 2020
- Half of adults would attend drive-in performances
- Last-minute purchase decisions are more likely in the coming months
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- Figure 45: Other attitudes towards attending performing arts events when venues reopen, June 2020
Performing Arts – Future Opportunities
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- Event cinema has further growth potential
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- Figure 46: Future interest in watching performing arts events at the cinema, June 2020
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- Figure 47: Future interest in watching performing arts events at the cinema, by gender and age, June 2020
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- Figure 48: Future interest in watching performing arts events at the cinema, by type of event, June 2020
- Theatre gift experiences are a long-term growth trend
- Theatre breaks to celebrate ‘return to freedom’ will be popular when the crisis is over
- Total immersion
- Apps can offer added value for theatre lovers
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- Figure 49: Future interest in watching performing arts events at the cinema, June 2020
- One in four theatre-goers would pay to watch livestreamed events in future
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- Figure 50: Future interest in paying to watch livestreamed performing arts events at home, June 2020
- Event cinema-goers are the most likely to pay online
- Consumers are willing to pay £14 on average for livestreamed events
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- Figure 51: Willingness to pay to watch livestreamed performing arts events at home, June 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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