Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Impact of COVID-19 on Chocolate
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- Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on chocolate, short, medium and long term, 8 July 2020
- Following 2019 uplift, chocolate volumes expected to stagnate in 2020
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of chocolate (COVID-19 adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- COVID-19 fuels emphasis on healthy eating
- Income squeeze will sharpen focus on price
- Chocolate confectionery extends its lead in the market
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- Figure 3: UK retail value and volume sales of chocolate, by segment, 2017-20
- Companies and brands
- Cadbury Dairy Milk posts strong growth
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail chocolate confectionery market, by value, 2018/19-2019/20
- Spotlight on plastic waste sees brands explore sustainable packaging
- Vegan claims leap ahead
- Various brands explore new channels to market
- Adspend stands at £98m in 2019
- The consumer
- 15% of people eat chocolate at least daily
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- Figure 5: Frequency of eating chocolate, March 2020
- Scope to associate with relaxing moments and activities
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- Figure 6: Reasons for eating chocolate, March 2020
- New flavours tempt almost half of chocolate buyers
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- Figure 7: Concepts that would prompt buyers to buy a new chocolate, March 2020
- Taste is at the heart of product choice
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- Figure 8: Purchase drivers for chocolate, March 2020
- Premium chocolate maintains ‘affordable luxury’ image
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- Figure 9: Behaviours related to chocolate, March 2020
- Almost half prefer taste of standard over lower-sugar chocolate
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- Figure 10: Behaviours related to chocolate, March 2020
- What we think
The Impact of COVID-19 on Chocolate
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- The market
- Chocolate volumes expected to stagnate in 2020
- 2008-10 learnings bode well for chocolate to grow spend
- The consumer
- COVID-19 fuels emphasis on healthy eating
- Income squeeze will sharpen focus on price
- Mood-boost and affordable-luxury connotations will support chocolate
- COVID-19’s link to planetary health puts spotlight on sustainability
- Companies and brands
- Large players are better placed to weather disruption from COVID-19
- Learnings from 2009-10 signal own-label is well placed to gain share
- With impulse occasions being hit, chocolate must win in weekly shop
Issues and Insights
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- COVID-19 sharply heightens the focus on health
- The facts
- The implications
- Flavour innovation is imperative
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Following 2019 uplift, chocolate volumes expected to stagnate in 2020
- 2008-10 learnings bode well for chocolate to grow spend
- Chocolate confectionery extends its lead in the market
- Brexit deal will impact import prices
- Fewer 25-34s and slowing growth of children poses a challenge
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on Chocolate
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- Figure 11: Expected impact of COVID-19 on chocolate, short, medium and long term, 8 July 2020
- Following 2019 uplift, market expected to stagnate in 2020
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- Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of chocolate (COVID-19 adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- 2008-10 learnings bode well for chocolate to maintain spend
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of chocolate (COVID-19 adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- A lasting shift in work patterns and continued evenings in put more focus on at-home occasions
- Spotlight on health from COVID-19 expected to dent volume growth
- Brexit injects further uncertainty to outlook
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- Figure 14: UK retail volume sales of chocolate (COVID-19 adjusted forecast), 2015-25
Market Segmentation
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- Chocolate confectionery extends its lead in the market
- Seasonal chocolate and assortments feel the disruption acutely in spring 2020
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- Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of chocolate, by segment, 2017-20
Market Drivers
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- Manufacturers tasked with cutting sugar
- COVID-19 heightens focus on health
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- Figure 16: Changes in eating healthily being seen as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 7-14 May 2020
- Fewer 25-34s and slowing growth of children poses a challenge
- Over-65s warrant attention
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- Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19 and 2019-24
- Income squeeze will sharpen focus on price
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- Figure 18: Cutting back on non-essential spending, by gender, 25 June-1 July 2020
- Mood-boost connotations and evenings in will support chocolate
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- Figure 19: Extent to which consumers feel comfortable doing selected out-of-home activities, 25 June-1 July 2020
- Lockdown and expected rise in remote working will hamper impulse occasions
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- Figure 20: Changes in selected behaviours since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender, 25 June-1 July 2020
- COVID-19 linked to human impact on the environment
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- Figure 21: Changes in the environment being seen as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 7-14 May 2020
- Palm oil was on people’s radars pre-COVID-19, vegan diets gain appeal
- New legislation will require supply-chain due diligence
- Brexit deal will impact import prices
- Impact of COVID-19 on cocoa supply remains uncertain
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Cadbury Dairy Milk posts strong growth
- Learnings from 2009-10 signal own-label is well placed to gain share
- Cadbury reveals first brand identity overhaul in 50 years
- Spotlight on plastic waste sees brands explore sustainable packaging
- Vegan claims leap ahead
- Various brands explore new channels to market
- Adspend stands at £98m in 2019
Market Share
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- Cadbury Dairy Milk posts strong growth
- Darkmilk and Freddo Treasures boost Mondelez
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail chocolate confectionery market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Aero leaps ahead
- Mixed performances for assortments brands
- Multinational conglomerates dominate the market
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- Figure 23: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail chocolate confectionery market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Large players are better placed to weather disruption from COVID-19
- Learnings from 2009-10 signal own-label is well placed to gain share
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Cadbury reveals first brand identity overhaul in 50 years
- Two in three launches make environmental or ethical claims
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- Figure 24: Share of chocolate launches with selected ethical claims, 2015-20*
- Co-op calls out the tangible impact of Fairtrade, Cox & Co claims a ‘fully sustainable’ Easter egg
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- Figure 25: Examples of chocolate launches spotlighting ethical commitments, 2020
- Swiss chocolatier creates new WholeFruit chocolate
- Spotlight on plastic waste sees brands explore sustainable packaging
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- Figure 26: Percentage of chocolate launches with ethical packaging claims, 2015- May 2020
- Nestlé links with TerraCycle, launches Smarties in recyclable paper wrapper
- Vegan Galaxy uses compostable film, Asda redesigns its Easter eggs to reduce packaging
- Montezuma redesigns for sustainability, some brands adopt recycled plastic
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- Figure 27: Examples of products with sustainable packaging claims, 2019-20
- Vegan claims leap ahead
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- Figure 28: Percentage of chocolate launches with allergen-free and vegan claims, 2015-20*
- Mars introduces vegan Galaxy, Barry Callebaut launches new vegan ‘milk’ chocolate
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- Figure 29: Examples of chocolate launches with vegan claims, 2019-20
- Lower-sugar and high-protein launches still niche
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- Figure 30: Percentage of chocolate launches with a low/no sugar, high/added protein or high/added fibre claim, 2015-20*
- Cadbury releases Dairy Milk 30% Less Sugar range and pledges 100-calorie cap for kids’ treats
- Nestlé creates new chocolate with no refined sugar…
- …and launches ‘More’ range
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- Figure 31: Examples of reduced sugar or portion-controlled launches, 2019
- Brands extend into new flavours and formats
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- Figure 32: Share of chocolate launches by launch type, 2015-20*
- Cadbury launches crowdsourced Dairy Milk flavours
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- Figure 33: Established brands continue flavour innovation, 2019-20
- M&M’s launches blocks, Quality Street and Galaxy explore truffles
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- Figure 34: Established brands explore new formats, 2019-20
- Seasonal launches gain share of NPD
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- Figure 35: Share of seasonal chocolate launches of all chocolate launches, 2015-20*
- Supermarkets expand the Easter menagerie
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- Figure 36: Examples of novelty animal-shaped Easter products, 2019-20
- Various brands explore new channels to market
- Nestlé ties up with Deliveroo for home delivery…
- … while KitKat offers DTC, personalised products
- Quality Street festive pick-and-mix repeated, Lindt Lindor goes pick and mix at Sainsbury’s
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend stands at £98m in 2019
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- Figure 37: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on chocolate, by advertiser (ordered by 2019), 2019-20*
- Figure 38: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on chocolate, by media type (ordered by 2019), 2016-20*
- Cadbury continues with “There’s a glass and a half in everyone” campaign
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- Figure 39: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on chocolate, by brand (ordered by 2019), 2019-20*
- Cadbury Dairy Milk links with Age UK
- Cadbury pushes visibility for its limited-edition Dairy Milk Inventor bars
- Creme Egg goes VOD for 2020
- Cadbury Heroes explores long-form in 2019
- Galaxy targets busy, under-pressure women
- M&M’s launches TV and digital campaign to promote new bars…
- …while Maltesers use AR for Easter bunny campaign
- Nestlé partners with Now TV once again
- Lindt debuts ad for Excellence range
- KitKat takes the spotlight on TV
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, May 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 41: Key metrics for selected brands, May 2020
- Brand attitudes: Lindt Lindor leads on being seen as worth paying more for
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- Figure 42: Attitudes, by brand, May 2020
- Brand personality: Kinder and M&M’s are most widely seen as fun
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- Figure 43: Brand personality – macro image, May 2020
- M&M’s has the strongest association with being cool
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- Figure 44: Brand personality – micro image, May 2020
- Brand analysis
- Cadbury Dairy Milk is the most widely eaten brand, most widely seen as accessible and trustworthy
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- Figure 45: User profile of Cadbury Dairy Milk, May 2020
- Lindt Lindor leads the pack on perceptions of high quality and exclusivity
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- Figure 46: User profile of Lindt Lindor, May 2020
- Galaxy holds its own on deliciousness, comfort and accessibility
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- Figure 47: User profile of Galaxy, May 2020
- KitKat is widely seen as a family brand and a brand that offers good value
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- Figure 48: User profile of KitKat, May 2020
- Ferrero Rocher seen widely as indulgent and special
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- Figure 49: User profile of Ferrero Rocher, May 2020
- M&M’s leads on being seen as cool
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- Figure 50: User profile of M&M’s, May 2020
- Kinder seen as the most fun and family orientated
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- Figure 51: User profile of Kinder, May 2020
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 15% of people eat chocolate at least daily
- Young people are core users
- Many want emotional fulfilment from chocolate
- New flavours tempt almost half of chocolate buyers
- Taste is at the heart of product choice
- Over half have yet to try lower-sugar chocolate
- Premium chocolate maintains ‘affordable luxury’ image
- Almost half prefer taste of standard over lower-sugar chocolate
Frequency of Eating Chocolate
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- 15% of people eat chocolate at least daily
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- Figure 52: Frequency of eating chocolate, March 2020
- Young people and families are core users
Types of Chocolate Eaten
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- Two thirds eat single-serve bars
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- Figure 53: Formats of chocolate eaten in the last three months, March 2020
Time of Day for Eating Chocolate
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- Majority eat chocolate after midday
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- Figure 54: Time of day when chocolate is eaten, March 2020
- Further potential for morning consumption
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- Figure 55: Examples of chocolate bars with ingredients evoking morning connotations, 2015-19
Reasons for Eating Chocolate
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- Many want emotional fulfilment from chocolate
- Scope to associate with relaxing moments and activities
- Maltesers supports Mental Health Awareness Week
- Tie-ups can link with cheering up or to combat boredom
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- Figure 56: Reasons for eating chocolate, March 2020
- One in five reach for chocolate when hungry
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- Figure 57: Examples of chocolate products with a high-/added-protein claim, 2019-20
Concepts of Interest
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- New flavours tempt almost half of chocolate buyers
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- Figure 58: Concepts that would prompt buyers to buy a new chocolate, March 2020
- Cadbury turns to crowdsourcing for new flavours
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- Figure 59: Examples of brands offering new flavours, 2019
- A fifth are drawn to recyclable packaging
- Vegan ingredients appeal to one in ten
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- Figure 60: Examples of brands offering vegan chocolate products, 2019-20
Purchase Drivers for Chocolate
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- Taste is at the heart of product choice
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- Figure 61: Purchase drivers for chocolate, March 2020
- Price matters to three in five
- Healthy products are not a priority or widely available
Behaviours Related to Chocolate
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- Premium chocolate maintains ‘affordable luxury’ image
- Recession heightens importance of accessibly priced products, points to opportunity for premium own-label
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- Figure 62: Behaviours related to chocolate, March 2020
- Over half have yet to try lower-sugar chocolate
- Over a third willing to pay more for single-origin cocoa
Attitudes towards Chocolate
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- Almost half prefer taste of standard over lower-sugar chocolate
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- Figure 63: Attitudes towards chocolate, March 2020
- Consumers are divided about gift packaging
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 64: Share of new product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, by claim category, 2015-20
- Figure 65: Share of new product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, by ethical claim, 2015-20
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