Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on oil change retail
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on oil change retail, June 2020
- What oil change retailers need to know
- DIY auto care is a threat, but only a small one
- Where oil change retailers can succeed
- Embrace technology and push for more oil changes scheduled online
- What it means
Impact of COVID-19 on Oil Change Retail
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- Figure 2: Short, medium and longer term impact of COVID-19 on oil change retail, June 2020
- Opportunities and Threats
- Oil change retailers can offer vehicle “disinfection kits” as an upgrade
- The resurgence of the road-trip will benefit the oil change industry
- Financially struggling consumers might delay their next immediate oil change
- Impact of COVID-19 on the Oil Change Retail Industry
- Oil change retail is unlikely to struggle
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- Figure 3: Total US revenues and forecast of automotive oil change and lubrication shops, at current prices, 2015-25
- Many oil change retailers were set up for social distancing without realizing it
- Online scheduling is the future of oil change retail
- Key Consumer Segments
- Economic hardship can temporarily push some consumers toward changing their own oil
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the oil change retail industry
- Then & Now: A look at oil change retailers today vs the 2008 Recession
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- Figure 4: Consumer spending on new vehicles, annual, 2000-19 and Q1 2020
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- Figure 5: Consumer spending on used vehicles, annual, 2000-19 and Q1 2020
- COVID-19: US context
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The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Unemployed consumers will halt oil changes
- Salary cuts could spark an interest in DIY oil changes
- Increased driving will be a boon to the overall industry
Market Size and Forecast
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- Oil change retail will persist out of necessity
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- Figure 6: Total US revenues and forecast of automotive oil change and lubrication shops, at current prices, 2015-25
Market Factors
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- As unemployment numbers grow, consumers might delay their next oil change
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- Figure 7: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-May 2020
- Salary and wage cuts could spark a moderate increase in DIY auto changes
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- As shelter-in-place mandates slow down, consumers race to get their cars road ready
- On-demand auto service might have found its time to shine amidst COVID-19
- Engine troubles cause GM to recall two vehicles from their lineup
What to Watch
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- As the US starts to reopen, consumers prepare to get their vehicles road ready
- Shelter in place creates opportunity for on-demand vehicle maintenance
What’s Struggling
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- Two GM vehicles need engine rebuild due to excessive oil burn rates
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Oil changes are the most popular vehicle maintenance performed
- Convenience beats cost when selecting a location
- Most consumers are getting their oil changed at the same location
- Online scheduling stands to gain popularity in light of COVID-19
Vehicle Maintenance Overview
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- Oil changes are the most popular vehicle service performed
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- Figure 8: Vehicle maintenance performed in past 12 months, April 2020
- Gen Z consumers aren’t keeping up with routine oil changes
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- Figure 9: Vehicle maintenance performed in past 12 months, by generation, April 2020
- City and rural car owners lag behind suburbanites regarding oil changes
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- Figure 10: Oil changes performed in past 12 months, by area, April 2020
Oil Change Retailers
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- Dealerships are popular for oil changes, but no retailer can claim monopoly
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- Figure 11: Location for previous oil change, April 2020
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- Figure 12: Kia oil change and service specials, November 2019
- Convenience beats cost when selecting oil change retailers
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- Figure 13: Reasons for selecting oil change retailer, April 2020
- Trust is key for the oldest and youngest consumer groups
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- Figure 14: Trust as primary reason for selecting retailer, by generation, April 2020
- Cleanliness not selected as a major factor when selecting a retailer
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- Figure 15: Trust as primary reason for selecting retailer, by generation, April 2020
Attitudes toward Oil Changes
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- Most consumers get their oil changed at the same location, but not necessarily out of loyalty
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- Figure 16: Consumers who go to the same location for oil changes, April 2020
- Millennials are more likely to schedule oil changes online
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- Figure 17: Consumers schedule oil changes online, April 2020
- Oil change retailers could charge more and keep consumers happy
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- Figure 18: Attitudes toward paying more for short wait times, April 2020
- Figure 19: Consumers who go to the same location for oil changes, April 2020
- Online reviews are important to young car owners
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- Figure 20: Attitudes toward checking online reviews of oil change retailers, by generation, April 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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