Table of Contents
Overview
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- Key issues covered in this report
- Covered in this Report
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
Executive Summary
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- Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on media markets, 15 June 2020
- How COVID-19 has already affected media markets
- Mixed fortunes for media markets leaves overall value stable
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- Figure 2: Consumer spending on key media markets (prepared 1 July 2020), 2014-24
- The impact of COVID-19 on consumer sentiment
- Which Behaviours Will Change in the Short-term?
- Which Behaviours Will Change in the Medium-term?
- Which Behaviours Will Change in the Long-term?
- What Can We Learn from Previous Slowdowns?
- Lessons from Other Markets
The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers
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- Anxiety levels align with case curve...
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- Figure 3: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety index, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- … but consumers remain anxious about their health
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- Figure 4: People’s level of concerns about the risk of being exposed to the coronavirus, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- COVID-19 concerns by demographics
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- Figure 5: Proportion of consumers showing the highest degree of concern (4 or 5 out of 5) regarding the risk of being exposed to the coronavirus, by age, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- UK begins to soften lockdown measures
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- Figure 6: Government COVID-19 lockdown exit strategy, published 11 May 2020
- Lockdown fears moderate
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- Figure 7: People’s level of concerns about how the outbreak might affect their lifestyle, 28 February - 3 June
- A bleak outlook for the economy
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- Figure 8: Consumer views on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the UK economy and their own finances, 28 May – 3 June 2020
- Consumers cut back outgoings, and add to savings
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- Figure 9: How consumers have been affected or changed their behaviour as a result of the outbreak, 21-28 May 2020
- Household finances hold steady for most
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- Figure 10: changes in financial situation since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 21-28 May 2020
- COVID-19 is yet to meaningfully affect most households’ well-being…
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- Figure 11: The financial well-being index, January 2015-May 2020
- …but confidence for the year ahead plummets
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- Figure 12: Consumers’ financial confidence for the coming year, May 2020
- Middle age groups feel particularly vulnerable…
- …and self-employed respondents show the importance of the COVID-19 support package
How COVID-19 Has Already Affected Media
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- Surge in use of subscription streaming services
- Record viewing figures for linear TV
- Return of live sport vital for broadcasters
- Print circulation sees sharp decline in lockdown
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- Figure 13: Daily national newspapers’ average UK print circulation per issue, Jan-Apr 2020
- Figure 14: Sunday national newspapers’ average UK print circulation per issue, Jan-Apr 2020
- Appetite for news grows but newspapers struggle to take advantage
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- Figure 15: UK online visits to top consumer categories, % change between week of 13 – 19 January 2020 and 23-29 March 2020
- Figure 16: National newspaper digital editions/publications, average circulation and active views, Jan – Apr 2020
- Increases in digital subscriptions counterbalanced by hit to ad revenues
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- Figure 17: COVID-19’s impact on online regional newspaper readership, 9-23 April 2020
- Figure 18: COVID-19’s impact on frequency read online regional newspapers, 9-23 April 2020
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- Figure 19: Online advertising and COVID-19, 28 May – 9 June 2020
- Social media use grows…
- …but broader concerns about the channel haven’t disappeared
Category Forecast
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- Mixed fortunes for media markets leaves overall value stable
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- Figure 20: Consumer spending on key media markets (prepared 1 July 2020), 2014-24
- Figure 21: Consumer spending on key media markets (prepared 1 July 2020), 2014-24
Which Behaviours Will Change in the Short-term?
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- Subscription streaming service use will be high
- People’s listening habits are changing
- Media purchases will further shift from physical to digital
- Absence of new TV content will become a growing problem
- Mental health concerns will cause some to limit their news consumption
- Popularity of social media features and platforms is changing
- TikTok goes mainstream
- Livestreaming booms
- Influencers can play an important role but will face content creation challenges
- Video chatting becomes a part of daily life and social networks are looking to capitalise
Which Behaviours Will Change in the Medium-term?
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- Lack of new content will reduce appeal of streaming services
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- Figure 22: Preferred streaming content, July 2019
- Re-branding live sport
- Video chatting will remain far more popular than before the pandemic
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- Figure 23: Features interested in dating website/apps offering, February 2019
Which Behaviours Will Change in the Long-term?
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- Furthering the digital shift
- Social media networks to take a stronger role in regulating content
- Consumers are split on whether social networks can be trusted to cut through “fake news”
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- Figure 24: Attitudes towards news and social media, August 2018
- Newspapers will need to reduce reliance on digital advertising
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- Figure 25: Trend in total annual UK print national newspaper circulation, 2014-24
- Figure 26: Trend in total annual UK print national newspaper circulation, 2014-24
- Opportunity for newspapers to strengthen bonds with readers
- The digital detox narrative
What Can We Learn from Previous Slowdowns?
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- Financial limitations will ramp up competition between video and music streaming services
- Impact of recession on newspapers will be limited
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- Figure 27: National newspapers print market size (volume), 2005-12
- Greater competition between platforms over limited adspend
Lessons from Other Markets
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- The importance of US media content
- WeChat causes debates about role of social media and apps
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