Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on prepared meals, May 2020
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2014-24
- The issues
- Changes in traditional “three squares” continue to reshape approach to mealtime
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- Figure 3: Snacking in place of meals, by age, February 2020
- Processed concerns still linger despite innovation
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- Figure 4: Opinions of processed prepared meals, by gender, February 2020
- Consumers seeking transparency
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- Figure 5: Interest in prepared meal transparency, by age, February 2020
- The opportunities
- COVID-19 may introduce some consumers to the category
- Consumers likely acclimate to customizing during COVID-19 lockdowns
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- Figure 6: Customizing opportunity for meals, February 2020
- Consumer willingness to pay for premium prepared meals
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- Figure 7: Quality and prepared meals, by age, February 2020
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The Impact of COVID-19 on Prepared Meals
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- What you need to know
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- Figure 8: Short, medium and longer term impact of COVID-19 on prepared meals, May 2020
- Opportunities and Threats
- Value + convenience can benefit all segments
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- Figure 9: Prepared meal market share by segment, 2017-19
- Brands can bring the foodservice experience within reach
- The role for health and wellbeing is two-fold, and then some
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- Figure 10: COVID-19 Related Changes in Priorities, Higher Priority, June 4, 2020
- Supply chain issues will challenge and boost the category
- Impact on the prepared meals market
- 2020 sales will get a boost, followed by a return to slower growth
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2014-24
- How the crisis will affect key prepared meal consumer segments
- Meeting family needs is complex, but worth it
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- Figure 12: Prepared meal consumption, by parental status, February 2020
- Consumers under 55 are chill
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- Figure 13: Prepared meal consumption, by age, February 2020
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the prepared meals category
- Unemployment, lingering concerns to prompt a shift in spending
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales of single-serve and multi-serve frozen meals, 2007-2013
- COVID-19: US context
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category enjoys steady growth, even pre-COVID-19
- Virtually the entire category sees sizable growth over the past two years
- COVID-19 should lead to some category growth
- Snacks encroach upon meals
Market Size and Forecast
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- Steady growth to accelerate in the wake of COVID-19
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Strong growth for sides and refrigerated meals
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- Figure 16: Sales of prepared meals, in millions, by segment, 2017 and 2019
- Migration to mass merchandisers hasn’t impacted prepared meals, yet
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales of prepared meals, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
Market Perspective
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- Pandemic followed by recession will negatively impact restaurants
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- Figure 18: Spending cuts after job loss – NET any rank, November 2019
- Consumers continue turn to snacking
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- Figure 19: Snacking in place of meals, by age, February 2020
- Cooking enthusiasm wanes, notably less among parents
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- Figure 20: Presence of children under 18 in the household, by cooking segment*, July 2018
Market Factors
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- Pandemic leads to uptick in sales, which should continue as economic recession hits
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- Figure 21: Consumer confidence, January 2007-April 2020
- Food spending shifting away from home
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- Figure 22: Share of food expenditures for in-home food vs dining out, 2013-18
- Meat the problem
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Smaller brands make inroads in the category
- Private label positions around premium
- Balance the budget
- Post-COVID-19 concerns will differ little but likely increase from prior to the pandemic
Company and Brand Sales of Prepared Meals
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- Less-processed appeal impacts the category
- Sales of prepared meals by company
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- Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of prepared meals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
What’s Working
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- Private label is no longer solely value driven
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- Figure 24: Claims on US launches of prepared meals, private label versus branded, 2018-19
- Figure 25: Select private label prepared meal launches
- Consumers taking sides
What’s Struggling
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- Value about more than price
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- Figure 26: Key attribute assessment of Charoen Pokphand’s Zap’ems single-serve meals
- Kraft Heinz struggles even among its larger brands
What to Watch
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- Concerns in the wake of COVID-19 differ little from those pre-pandemic
- Consumers support brands that provide support
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- Figure 27: Ingredient information interest, by age, February 2020
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Half of consumers turn to frozen single-serve meals
- It’s a family affair
- Half of consumers seek meals with natural ingredients
- Encourage consumers to make a dish their own
- Set sights on global cuisines
- Processed stigma lingers
- Leveraging quality to expand beyond convenience
Prepared Meal Consumption
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- Single-serve frozen options lead meal types consumed
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- Figure 28: Prepared meal consumption, February 2020
- Younger consumers much more engaged in the category
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- Figure 29: Prepared meal consumption, by age, February 2020
- Convenience resonating for men and women
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- Figure 30: Prepared meal consumption, by gender, February 2020
- Meeting family needs is complex, but worth it
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- Figure 31: Prepared meal consumption, by parental status, February 2020
Change in Consumption
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- Already increased participation in the category will catch a tailwind
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- Figure 32: Meal usage, February 2020
- Parents picking prepared meals
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- Figure 33: Increasing meal usage, by parental status, February 2020
Important Attributes and Features
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- Natural claims resonating with meal consumers
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- Figure 34: Important attributes and features, February 2020
- Experience, familiarity drive men’s purchase
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- Figure 35: Desired meal features, by gender, February 2020
- Assure consumers of the quality of the meal experience
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- Figure 36: TURF analysis – desired meal features, February 2020
Sought-after New Product Features
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- Brand communication can support customization, values and loyalty
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- Figure 37: Areas of opportunity for meals, February 2020
- Customizing potential to harness self-expression
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- Figure 38: Areas of opportunity for meals, by age, February 2020
- Plant-based may be plateauing
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- Figure 39: Areas of opportunity for meals, by Hispanic origin, by generation, February 2020
International Cuisines of Interest in Prepared Meals
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- Leverage expertise in establishing diverse meals
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- Figure 40: International cuisines of interest in prepared meals, February 2020
- Younger consumers seeking a diversity of cuisines
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- Figure 41: International cuisines of interest in prepared meals, by age, February 2020
- Hispanic cuisine interest largely among familiar cuisines
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- Figure 42: International cuisines of interest in prepared meals, by Hispanic origin, by generation, February 2020
Attitudes toward Prepared Meals
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- Claims to address processed concerns
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward prepared meals, any agree, February 2020
- Changing approaches to mealtime present an opportunity for prepared meals brands
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- Figure 44: Quality and prepared meals, any agree, by age, February 2020
- Value positioning could play to widespread interest in larger portions
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- Figure 45: Quality and prepared meals, any agree, by household income, February 2020
Prepared Meals by Food/Drink Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 46: Food/drink consumer segmentation of prepared meals, February 2020
- Encourage Time Savers to continue stock-up behaviors
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- Figure 47: Lack of time to cook, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2020
- Appeal to Adventure Eaters’ adventurous side
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- Figure 48: Interest in prepared meals with larger portions, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2020
- Quality Seekers generally uninterested in prepared meals
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- Figure 49: Prepared meal consumption, February 2020
- Value Chasers focus on budget and portion size
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- Figure 50: Interest in paying more for higher-quality prepared meals, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2020
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared meals, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of multi-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of multi-serve frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of side dishes, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of side dishes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 61: Total US retail sales of prepared meals, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales of prepared meals, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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- Figure 63: US supermarket sales of prepared meals, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 64: US sales of prepared meals through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of prepared meals, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 66: Multi-outlet sales of single-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of multi-serve frozen meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 68: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated meals, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of side dishes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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Appendix – TURF Analysis – Methodology
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- Figure 70: TURF Analysis – Desired features, February 2020
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