Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecasted and projected, 2015-19
- Forecast
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- Figure 2: Indexed value of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecasted and projected, 2015-19
- Market factors
- Strong employment helping to sustain mortgage activity
- NI consumers personal financial situation deteriorated somewhat 2016-20
- Average house prices continued to increase in 2019
- Fewer homeowners in arrears in 2019
- Companies and innovations
- The consumer
- One in three holds a mortgage
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- Figure 3: Consumers who, either on their own or with their partner, currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, NI and RoI, January 2020
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- Figure 4: Type of mortgage currently held, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Preference for long-term fixed rate mortgages
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- Figure 5: When mortgage holders current deal will end, NI and RoI, January 2020
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- Figure 6: When mortgage holders current deal will end, by age group, NI and RoI, January 2020
- RoI consumers more likely to apply for a mortgage in 2020
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- Figure 7: Whether consumers are considering applying for a mortgage or a re-mortgage within the next 12 months, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Over half of RoI consumers seek longer term mortgages
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- Figure 8: Agreement with statements relating to mortgage behaviour, NI and RoI, January 2020
- RoI consumers more likely to fear mortgage rejection
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- Figure 9: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages and mortgages providers, January 2020
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Outstanding mortgage value falls despite
- Strong employment helping to sustain mortgage activity
- Consumers still likely to rate their finances as ‘OK’
- House prices continue to increase
- 2019 sees fewer arrears, repossession and restructures
Market Size and Forecast
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- Outstanding mortgage debt falls despite increase in mortgage approvals
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- Figure 10: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecasted, and projected, 2015-24
- RoI approval rates increase despite stringent lending criteria
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- Figure 11: Mortgage approvals, by type of mortgage, RoI, 2015-19
- Figure 12: Mortgage approvals, by type of mortgage, RoI, 2019
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- Figure 13: Average mortgage loan value, RoI, Q1 2015 to Q3 2019
- FTB mortgages in NI continue to grow
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- Figure 14: Number of new mortgage loans, NI, 2016-19
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- Figure 15: Average mortgage loan value, RoI, Q1 2015 to Q3 2019
- Steady growth in near future
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- Figure 16: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecasted and projected, 2015-24
Market Drivers
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- Employment levels continue to grow
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- Figure 17: Indexed employment rates, NI and RoI, Q1 2014 to Q3 2019*
- Employment rates set to slow in 2020
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- Figure 18: Job growth forecast, NI and RoI, 2019-23
- Figure 19: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on unemployment, NI and RoI, June 2019
- Consumers still likely to rate their finances as ‘OK’
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- Figure 20: Financial health of Irish consumers, NI and RoI, 2016-20
- House prices continue to increase despite Brexit concerns
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- Figure 21: Average national house price (at first listing), RoI, January 2013-October 2019
- NI housing prices continue apace
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- Figure 22: Average national house price (at first listing), NI, Q1 2013-Q3 2019
- Arrears, repossessions and restructures in decline
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- Figure 23: Number of mortgage accounts in arrears, repossessions and mortgage restructures for principal dwelling households, RoI, 2015-19
- Low levels of savings may prove problematic for some
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- Figure 24: Amount that consumers currently have in savings and investments (excluding the value of main home and any pension savings), NI and RoI, November 2019
- Interest rates for RoI mortgages high compared to rest of EU
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- Figure 25: Retail interest rates for loans for house purchases with original maturity, RoI, January 2014 to October 2019
Companies and Brands – What you need to know
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- Progressive allow customers to pay mortgages in foreign currency
- AIB encouraging climate considerations
- Reaching out to LGTBQ couples seeking mortgages
Who’s Innovating?
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- Progressive Building Society introduces Foreign Currency Mortgage
- AIB RoI introduce a Green Mortgage
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- Figure 26: Eco and ethical activities consumers regularly do, NI and RoI, November 2018
- Helping LGBTQ+ couples get on the property ladder
Companies and Brands
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- Allied Irish Bank/First Trust (AIB NI)
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Bank of Ireland
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Danske Bank
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Halifax
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- HSBC
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent Developments
- KBC Ireland
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Nationwide
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Permanent TSB
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Progressive Building Society
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Santander
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Ulster Bank
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- One third of consumers have an outstanding mortgage
- Preference for long-term fixed rate mortgages
- RoI consumers more likely to apply for a mortgage in 2020
- Online functionality used to check mortgage status
- Four in 10 non-mortgage holders claim to have more important saving intentions than property
Ownership and Type of Mortgages
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- Over a third of Irish consumers have a mortgage
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- Figure 27: Consumers who, either on their own or with their partner, currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, NI and RoI, January 2020
- 35-54 year olds key mortgage holders
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- Figure 28: Consumers who, either on their own or with their partner, currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, by age group, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Figure 29: Household income levels, by age group, NI and RoI, January 2020
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- Figure 30: Consumers who, either on their own or with their partner, currently have a mortgage on the property they live in as their main home, by socio-economic group, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Fixed rate mortgages the preference among NI and RoI mortgage holders
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- Figure 31: Type of mortgage currently held, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Tracker mortgages more likely to be held by men
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- Figure 32: Fixed rate vs tracker mortgage ownership, by gender, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Figure 33: How consumers rate their current financial situation, by gender, January 2020
Current Mortgage Deal Term and Intentions
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- Irish mortgage holders prefer long term deals
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- Figure 34: When mortgage holders current deal will end, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Mature consumers more inclined to opt for long term deal
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- Figure 35: When mortgage holders current deal will end, by age group, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Most seek new deals with current providers
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- Figure 36: When mortgage holders current deal will end, by age group, NI and RoI, January 2020
Future Mortgage Intentions
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- RoI consumers show greater future willingness to apply for mortgage
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- Figure 37: Whether consumers are considering applying for a mortgage or a re-mortgage within the next 12 months, NI and RoI, January 2020
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- Figure 38: Consumers who are not planning to apply for a mortgage in the next 12 months, by age group, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Figure 39: Actual and projected population (%) for NI, by age, 2017 and 2041
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- Figure 40: Actual and projected population (%) for RoI, by age, 2017 and 2046
Mortgage Behaviours
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- Mortgage holder frequently check mortgage statements online
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- Figure 41: Agreement with statements relating to mortgage behaviour, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Online statement checking strongest among younger consumers
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- Figure 42: Agreement with the statement ‘I regularly check my mortgage statement online’, by age group, NI and RoI, January 2020
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- Figure 43: Agreement with statement, ‘I prefer visiting branches for important financial issues (eg to arrange a mortgage/loan)’, by age and daily internet usage, NI and RoI, April 2017
- Higher house prices see RoI consumers more likely to want a longer term
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- Figure 44: Agreement with statement, ‘I opted for a longer mortgage term to lower my monthly costs’, by socio-economic group, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Greater positivity sees RoI consumers more willing to make additional borrowing in near future
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- Figure 45: Agreement with statement, ‘I am planning to borrow additional funds in the next 12 months’, NI and RoI, January 2020
- Figure 46: How consumers expect their personal financial situation to change in the next 12 months, NI and RoI, January 2020
Mortgage Intentions for Non-Mortgage Holders
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- Four in 10 have better things to save for
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- Figure 47: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages and mortgages providers, December 2018
- Desire to buy a home varies with lifestage
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- Figure 48: Agreement with the statement ‘I have better things to save for than a property’, by generation, NI and RoI, January 2020
- RoI consumers show greater fear of rejection
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- Figure 49: Agreement with the statement ‘I think if I applied for a mortgage now, I would be rejected’, by gender and financial situation, NI and RoI, January 2020
- RoI consumers more likely to note buying a home is a priority for them
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- Figure 50: Agreement with the statement ‘Buying a home is a priority for me’, by area, NI and RoI, January 2020
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- Figure 51: Agreement with the statement ‘I am actively saving for a deposit to buy a house’, NI and RoI, January 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Generational cohort definitions
- Abbreviations
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