Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- The issues
- The alcohol industry will need to adapt to Gen Z
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- Figure 1: Spirit behaviors, by generation, September 2019
- Flagship vodka and rum brands underperform
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- Figure 2: Change in select vodka brands, in thousand 9-liter cases, change 2017-18
- Figure 3: Change in select rum brands, in thousand 9-liter cases, change 2017-18
- Decline in value brands emblematic of the entire alcohol market
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- Figure 4: Percent change in volume sales (9-liter cases sold), 2013-18
- The opportunities
- Cheers to tequila
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- Figure 5: Total US volume sales and forecast of tequila, 2014-22
- Boomers can upgrade their spirit purchases
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- Figure 6: At-home cocktail attitudes and spirit attitudes, by generation, September 2019
- Millennials eager to try new spirits, even booze-less spirits
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- Figure 7: Product interest, September 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Spirits outperform other alcohol types
- New challengers threaten spirits
- Alcohol abstention and moderation grows
Market Size and Forecast
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- Spirits market enjoys continued growth
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of distilled spirits, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of distilled spirits, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Tequila is a star spirit
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- Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2014-22
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- Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2014-22
- Figure 12: Percent change in 9-liter cases sold, 2013-18
- Gains in on-premise spirit sales
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- Figure 13: US volume sales of total distilled spirits, by channel, 2014-18
- Figure 14: US volume sales of total distilled spirits, by channel, 2014-18
Market Perspective
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- Hard seltzers upend the alcohol market
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- Figure 15: White Claw Pure Hard Seltzer
- Dark spirits outpace white
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- Figure 16: Total US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits, by segment, 2014-22
- Figure 17: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, 2014-19
- Haze lingers over the cannabis market
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- Figure 18: Attitudes/behaviors, October 2019
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- Figure 19: Reasons for using cannabis, October 2019
Market Factors
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- Trade wars linger on
- “Sober curious” and “mindful drinking” are entering the zeitgeist
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- Figure 20: Dry January mentions on social media, 2013-19
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Tequila’s winning streak continues
- Growth of super premium gin a sign of things to come
- Technology creates new spirit opportunities
What’s Working
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- Tequila can be the new Scotch
- Flavored rums can cut into vodka’s market share
- Cocktail culture alive and well
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- Figure 21: Incidence of spirits used in cocktails, select spirit types, Q3 2016 – Q3 2019
What’s Struggling
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- It’s Tito’s world; other vodka brands are just living in it
What to Watch
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- Gin has permission to be bold
- A golden age for RTD cocktails?
- AR packaging can enhance a brand’s story
- Online spirit sales will grow slowly but surely
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- Figure 22: Reasons for not buying alcohol online, August 2019
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- Figure 23: Online alcohol purchase drivers, August 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Millennials are the most important consumer group for spirit brands
- Higher end brands can capture new drinking occasions
- Boomers are primed for trading up
- Gen Z may respond to the stories behind spirit brands
Alcohol Consumption
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- White spirits lead dark
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- Figure 24: Alcohol consumption, net any consumption, September 2019
- Hispanics and Millennials overindex as white spirit drinkers
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- Figure 25: White/dark spirit drinker demographics, indexed against all consumers, September 2019
White Spirit Consumption
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- Vodka dominates the white spirits market
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- Figure 26: White spirit consumption, among white spirit drinkers, September 2019
- Millennials remain core white spirit drinkers
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- Figure 27: White spirit consumption, among white spirit drinkers, by generation, September 2019
- Build white spirit brand loyalty among Hispanics
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- Figure 28: White spirit consumption, among white spirit drinkers, by race/ethnicity, September 2019
Reasons for Not Drinking White Spirits
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- Ease new consumers into the market
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- Figure 29: Reasons for not drinking white spirits, September 2019
Spirit Brand Tier Purchases
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- White spirits are under-represented in the super premium brand tier
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- Figure 30: Spirit brand tier purchases, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Millennials may be premium drinkers, but don’t neglect older consumers
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- Figure 31: Spirit brand tier purchases, by generation, September 2019
Spirit Occasions by Brand Tier
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- Higher end brands have greatest cross-occasion potential
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- Figure 32: Correspondence analysis, spirit occasions by brand type, September 2019
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- Figure 33: Spirit occasions by brand type, September 2019
Making Cocktails at Home
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- Take cocktail culture from the bar to the home
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- Figure 34: At home cocktail attitudes, among spirit drinkers who make cocktails at home, by exclusive spirit type consumed, September 2019
- Boomers have an underlying interest in cocktails
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- Figure 35: At home cocktail attitudes, among spirit drinkers who make cocktails at home, by generation, September 2019
- Ecommerce can satisfy the home bartender
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- Figure 36: At-home cocktail attitudes, among spirit drinkers who make cocktails at home, by spirit behaviors, September 2019
Spirit Flavor Interest
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- Favorite familiars can give way to exciting flavors
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- Figure 37: Spirit flavor interest, by exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Gin drinkers like adventure, while rum drinkers prefer indulgence
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- Figure 38: Spirit flavor interest, by type of white spirit consumed, September 2019
- Fail fast with new flavors sold online
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- Figure 39: Spirit flavor interest, by spirit behaviors, September 2019
Spirit Behaviors
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- Shifting attitudes toward alcohol apparent among Gen Z
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- Figure 40: Spirit behaviors, by generation, September 2019
Spirit Product Interest
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- Harness the success of hard seltzers
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- Figure 41: Product interest, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Alcohol alternatives need to be premium
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- Figure 42: Product interest, by white spirit brand tier drinkers, September 2019
- Mocktail by day, mixer by night
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- Figure 43: Product interest, by white spirit brand tier drinkers, September 2019
Spirit Attitudes
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- Spirits aren’t healthful but are less bad than beer
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- Figure 44: Spirit attitudes, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
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- Figure 45: Spirit attitudes, by food/drink shopper segmentation, September 2019
- Gen Z needs guidance
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- Figure 46: Spirit attitudes, by generation, September 2019
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- Figure 47: Spirit attitudes, by generation, September 2019
- Focus on the craft of gin
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- Figure 48: Spirit attitudes, by type of white spirit consumed, September 2019
Spirit Purchasing Behaviors
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- Consumers know what they want but are open to suggestions
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- Figure 49: Spirit purchasing behaviors, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Gen Z shops with an open mind
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- Figure 50: Spirit purchasing behaviors, by generation, September 2019
White Spirit Associations
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- White space exists for each white spirit type
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- Figure 51: White spirit associations by spirit type, rebased among spirit type drinkers, September 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
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- Figure 52: Vodka brand tier definition
- Figure 53: Rum brand tier definition
- Figure 54: Tequila brand tier definition
- Figure 55: Gin brand tier definition
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 56: Total US sales and forecast of distilled spirits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 57: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, 2014-22
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- Figure 58: Total US volume sales of white spirits, by segment, 2017 and 2019
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