Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Inflation and growth in certain segments drive category growth 2013-18
- Further inflation and slowing volume sales predicted for 2018-23
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- Figure 1: Total value sales of white spirits and RTDs, 2013-23
- Vodka sales slip as gin boom continues
- Mixed results for white spirits in the off- and on-trade in 2018
- Freeze in spirits duty offers relief to manufacturers
- Health body declares there to be no safe limit of alcohol consumption
- Companies and brands
- Smirnoff grows sales but feels pressure from rivals
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail vodka market, by value, 2017/18^
- Gordon’s enjoys strong sales growth but faces increased competition
- Colourful gin trend continues
- Further crossover brands enter the category
- Advertising spend rises in 2017
- Diageo focuses on Smirnoff and Gordon’s
- Smirnoff leads on value, while Malibu is the most widely seen as fun
- The consumer
- Six in ten adults drink white spirits, while over a third drink RTDs
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- Figure 3: Usage of white spirits, by type, September 2018
- Pre-mixed versions of trendy cocktails appeal to three in ten
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- Figure 4: Usage of RTDs, by format, September 2018
- Trial in the on-trade is a major driver of retail purchase
- Product details are important to many
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- Figure 5: Behaviours relating to white spirits, September 2018
- Concerns about artificial ingredients are a barrier for RTDs
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards white spirits and RTDs, September 2018
- Few see any type of white spirit as sophisticated
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Product details are important to many
- The facts
- The implications
- Trial in the on-trade is a major driver of retail purchase
- The facts
- The implications
- Pre-mixed cocktails in trendy flavours have strong potential
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Inflation and growth in certain segments drive category growth 2013-18
- Further inflation and slowing volume sales predicted for 2018-23
- Vodka sales slip as gin boom continues
- Mixed results for white spirits in the off- and on-trade in 2018
- Freeze in spirits duty offers relief to manufacturers
- Health body declares there to be no safe limit of alcohol consumption
Market Size and Forecast
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- Inflation and growth in certain segments drive category growth 2013-18
- Further inflation predicted for 2018-23
- Ageing UK population and alcohol moderation trend to impede volume sales growth
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- Figure 7: Total value and volume sales of white spirits and RTDs, 2013-23
- Figure 8: Total value sales of white spirits and RTDs, 2013-23
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Vodka volume sales slip in 2018
- Inflation and slight volume sales decline projected for 2018-23
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- Figure 9: Total value and volume sales of vodka, 2013-23
- Figure 10: Total value sales of vodka, 2013-23
- Gin boom continues in 2018
- Slowing volume sales growth predicted for 2018-23
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- Figure 11: Total value and volume sales of gin, 2013-23
- Figure 12: Total value sales of gin, 2013-23
- White rum’s lacklustre sales performance continues in 2018
- Further inflation plus some volume sales decline anticipated for 2018-23
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- Figure 13: Total value and volume sales of white rum, 2013-23
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- Figure 14: Total value sales of white rum, 2013-23
- Tequila/mezcal sees rapid sales growth over 2013-18
- Tequila/mezcal’s stark youth bias to limit volume sales growth 2018-23
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- Figure 15: Total value and volume sales of tequila/mezcal, 2013-23
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- Figure 16: Total value sales of tequila/mezcal, 2013-23
- RTDs revival continues in 2018
- RTDs growth to slow over 2018-23
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- Figure 17: Total value and volume sales of RTDs, 2013-23
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- Figure 18: Total value and volume sales of RTDs, 2013-23
Channels to Market
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- Higher prices in the on-trade allow it to lead on values but not on volumes
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- Figure 19: UK value and volume sales of white spirits and RTDs in the on- and off-trade, by type, 2016-18
- Vodka retail sales gain at the expense of on-trade in 2018
- Gin performs well in both the off- and on-trade…
- …while white rum performs better in the on-trade
- RTDs perform strongly in the off-trade
Market Drivers
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- Multiple factors affect spirits prices
- Freeze on spirits duties offers relief to manufacturers
- Uncertainty continues to surround post-Brexit situation
- Wage growth pulls ahead of inflation but remains subdued
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- Figure 20: CPI vs average weekly earnings, 2012-18
- Minimum unit pricing comes into effect in Scotland
- Industry submits proposal for more detailed alcohol labelling
- Health organisation calls for health warnings on alcoholic drinks packaging
- A third of buyers have cut back on alcohol for health reasons
- No safe level of alcohol consumption, declares health research institute
- Companies look to tap the alcohol moderation trend with spirits alternatives
- Ageing UK population offers little support for white spirits or RTDs
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- Figure 21: Usage of white spirits and RTDs, by age group, September 2018
- Competition heats up in white spirits
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Smirnoff grows sales but feels pressure from rivals
- Gordon’s enjoys strong sales growth but faces increased competition
- Colourful gin trend continues
- Further crossover brands enter the category
- Advertising spend rises in 2017
- Diageo focuses on Smirnoff and Gordon’s
- Smirnoff leads on value, while Malibu is the most widely seen as fun
Market Share
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- Smirnoff grows sales but feels pressure from rivals
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail vodka market, 2015/16-2017/18
- Figure 23: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail vodka market, 2015/16-2017/18
- Gordon’s sees strong growth as gin boom continues
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail gin market, 2015/16-2017/18
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- Figure 25: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail gin market, 2015/16-2017/18
- Increased distribution helps Whitley Neill to fly
- …and boosts smaller brands
- NPD helps own-label to grow sales, albeit losing share
- Bacardi sees sales slip in weak white rum market
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail white rum market, 2015/16-2017/18
- Figure 27: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail white rum market, 2015/16-2017/18
- Smaller brands push forward in tequila/mezcal
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- Figure 28: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail tequila/mezcal market, 2015/16-2017/18
- Figure 29: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail tequila/mezcal market, 2015/16-2017/18
- WKD sees further volume sales decline in 2017/2018
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- Figure 30: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTDs market, 2015/16-2016/17
- Gordon’s RTDs rise along with the main brand
- NPD helps smaller brands and own-label to grow
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Colourful gin trend continues
- Pernod Ricard unveils Beefeater Pink
- A raft of pink gins arrives from smaller brands…
- …and from own-label
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- Figure 31: Examples of pink gins, 2018
- Craft brands release violet gins
- Orange gins emphasize taste and mixability
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- Figure 32: Gins in other colours, 2018
- Absolut highlights the juice content of its flavoured vodka drinks
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- Figure 33: Example of Absolut Juice Edition range, 2018
- Retailers explore colour changing gins…
- …picking up craft cues
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- Figure 34: Example of colour-changing gin, 2018
- Bombay Sapphire launches edible paint for gin & tonic in the on-trade
- Further activity in non-alcoholic spirit alternatives
- Pernod Ricard picks up craft cues with Ceder’s Alt Gin
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- Figure 35: Examples of non-alcoholic spirits alternatives, 2018
- Smaller brands focus on enjoyment
- Independent shop and craft distiller co-operate on organic ‘amber’ gin alternative
- Seedlip expands its portfolio
- Gordon’s adds low-alcohol premixes
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- Figure 36: Example of Gordon’s Ultra Low Alcohol range, 2018
- Further cross-over brands enter the market
- Craft breweries continue to extend into white spirits
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- Figure 37: Tiny Rebel’s gin range, 2018
- Fortified wine brand launches ginger-flavoured gin
- Alcohol brands extend into RTDs
- Restaurant chains launch pre-mixed cocktails
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- Figure 38: Example of TGI Fridays RTDs range, 2018
- Premium RTDs launches rise in 2018
- Taking inspiration from the on-trade
- References to juice content used to project a natural image
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- Figure 39: Examples of premium RTDs, 2018
- M&S unveils small batch pre-mixed G&Ts
- Hybrid drinks blur the boundaries within the alcohol category
- Aldi unveils wine/gin hybrid
- Craft distillery aims for the Christmas festivities with mulled gin
- Leading RTD brands add new flavours
- WKD makes its debut in canned pre-mixes
- Competition heats up in RTDs
- Craft spirit brands extend into RTDs
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- Figure 40: Increased competition in canned G&Ts
- Smaller gin brands mark historical events
- Oxford and Cambridge universities continue their rivalry with gins
- Leading brands revive historic recipes
- Diversification of origins for white spirits
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- Figure 41: Examples of white spirits from unusual countries, 2018
- Film director brings Bolivian spirit to the UK
- Waitrose targets the cocktail trend with Mezcal launch
- Spanish brand launches ‘first’ vodka designed to mix with plain water
- Companies explore environmentally-friendly packaging
- Diageo introduces edible straws for its RTDs
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertising spend rises substantially in 2017
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- Figure 42: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on white spirits^ and RTDs, 2014-18 (sorted by 2017)
- Diageo remains the leading advertiser in 2017
- Smirnoff continues its focus on inclusivity
- Smirnoff’s ‘Soda Smash’ cocktail campaign focuses on vibrant ingredients
- Other cocktail recommendations imply versatility
- Gordon’s focuses on relaxing after setbacks…
- …including offering free G&Ts to commuters experiencing train delays
- Gordon’s Pink advert targets social media lovers
- Bacardi remains the second largest advertiser in 2017
- Bacardi’s ‘Do what moves you’ campaign encourages people to follow their passions
- Bombay Sapphire celebrates creativity…
- …including allowing people to customise their drinks’ flavours and colours
- Pernod Ricard ups advertising spend over 2017/18
- Malibu encourages people to ‘unleash their summer selves’
- Absolut uses nudity to reinforce transparency message
- New global campaign for Olmeca focuses on memorable experiences
- Lidl Christmas advert highlights quality as well as price
- Leading and niche brands adopt feminist message
- RTD brands continue to target young adults
- Hooch links with music and movies
- VK targets Fresher’s Week
- Other selected campaigns
- Pinkster emphasizes its natural credentials
- Silent Pool creates garden for Chelsea Flower Show
- Opihr exhibits its RTDs at the Cowes regatta
- Chastity promotes its non-alcoholic gin alternative as improving nights out
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 43: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, October 2018
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 44: Key metrics for selected brands, October 2018
- Brand attitudes: Gordon’s and Smirnoff are the most trusted brands
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- Figure 45: Attitudes, by brand, October 2018
- Brand personality: Malibu scores highest on the fun factor
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- Figure 46: Brand personality – Macro image, October 2018
- Beefeater and Smirnoff are the most widely seen as traditional
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- Figure 47: Brand personality – Micro image, October 2018
- Brand analysis
- Grey Goose is the most widely recommended brand
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- Figure 48: User profile of Grey Goose, October 2018
- Gordon’s scores well on both good value and high quality
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- Figure 49: User profile of Gordon’s, October 2018
- Bombay Sapphire has something of a premium image
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- Figure 50: User profile of Bombay Sapphire, October 2018
- Smirnoff is the most widely seen as good value
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- Figure 51: User profile of Smirnoff, October 2018
- Malibu scores highest on the fun factor
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- Figure 52: User profile of Malibu, October 2018
- Beefeater is widely seen as traditional
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- Figure 53: User profile of Beefeater, October 2018
- WKD scores well on the fun factor
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- Figure 54: User profile of WKD, October 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Six in ten adults drink white spirits, while over a third drink RTDs
- Pre-mixed versions of trendy cocktails appeal to three in ten
- Trial in the on-trade is a major driver of retail purchase
- Product details are important to many
- Concerns about artificial ingredients are a barrier for RTDs
- Few see any type of white spirit as sophisticated
Usage of White Spirits and RTDs
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- Six in ten adults drink white spirits
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- Figure 55: Usage of white spirits, by type, September 2018
- Ageing UK population offers little support to white spirits
- Nearly seven in ten have moved on from the brands of their youth
- No gender bias in white spirits
- Over a third of users drink just one or two white spirits types
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- Figure 56: Repertoire of white spirit types drunk, September 2018
- Few people drink white spirits neat
- Younger consumers’ preferred serves pose an issue for brands seeking a premium positioning
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- Figure 57: Drinking of different serves of white spirits (nets), September 2018
- Drinking with a single mixer leads for all white spirits apart from tequila
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- Figure 58: Drinking of different serves of white spirits, by type, September 2018
- Over a third drink RTDs
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- Figure 59: Usage of RTDs, by format, September 2018
- Concerns around artificial ingredients are a barrier
- Ageing population will also hinder RTDs
Interest in Innovation in White Spirits and RTDs
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- Pre-mixed versions of trendy cocktails appeal to three in ten
- Premium products should be particularly well-placed to benefit
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- Figure 60: Interest in innovation in white spirits and RTDs, September 2018
- A new flavour remains a significant enticement
- Companies must promote flavoured versions’ special qualities to avoid flavour fatigue
- A quarter are interested in spirits from different countries than usual
- Focus on terroir would help to boost the appeal of spirits from different countries
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- Figure 61: Example of white spirit with a focus on terroir, 2017
- Colour changing drinks appeal to a third of under-35s
- Colour-changing products would work well for parties and on social media
- Pre-mixed cocktails with graduating colours would help to tap the colourful trend
Behaviours Relating to White Spirits
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- Trial in the on-trade is a major driver of retail purchase
- Various methods to promote white spirits in the on-trade
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- Figure 62: Behaviours relating to white spirits, September 2018
- Product details are important to half of white spirits drinkers/buyers
- Giving more background information could help to revive interest in white rum
- Consumer interest in product details helps to drive growth in smaller gin brands
- Regionality is important to many
- Meal pairing suggestions appeal to four in ten
- Recipe cards and in-store positioning can help to promote dish-matching suggestions
Attitudes towards White Spirits and RTDs
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- Concerns about artificial ingredients put four in ten users off RTDs
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- Figure 63: Attitudes towards white spirits and RTDs, September 2018
- Smaller brands promote their all-natural ingredients
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- Figure 64: Examples of RTD launches with all-natural product claims, 2018
- Consumers are divided on white spirits’ sugar content
- Promoting serves with unsweetened mixers should appeal to the sugar-concerned
Perceptions of Selected Types of White Spirits and RTDs
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- Few people see any type of white spirit as sophisticated
- White spirits’ serves and youth bias weaken associations with sophistication
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- Figure 65: Perceptions of selected types of white spirits and RTDs
- Actively negative views of white spirits are in the minority
- Should be few barriers to reviving white rum’s fortunes
- Few people see any type of white spirit as versatile
- Recipe cards on bottles and in-store could help to enhance image for versatility
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 66: Total volume sales of white spirits and RTDs, 2013-23
- Figure 67: Forecast of UK sales of white spirits and RTDs, by value, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 68: Forecast of UK sales of white spirits and RTDs, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 69: Total volume sales of vodka, 2013-23
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- Figure 70: Forecast of UK sales of vodka, by value, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 71: Forecast of UK sales of vodka, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 72: Total volume sales of gin, 2013-23
- Figure 73: Forecast of UK sales of gin, by value, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
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- Figure 74: Forecast of UK sales of gin, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 75: Total volume sales of white rum, 2013-23
- Figure 76: Forecast of UK sales of white rum, by value, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 77: Forecast of UK sales of white rum, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
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- Figure 78: Total volume sales of tequila/mezcal, 2013-23
- Figure 79: Forecast of UK sales of tequila/mezcal, by value, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 80: Forecast of UK sales of tequila/mezcal, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 81: Total volume sales of RTDs, 2013-23
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- Figure 82: Forecast of UK sales of RTDs, by value, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
- Figure 83: Forecast of UK sales of RTDs, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2018-23
Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 84: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on white spirits^ and RTDs, by top three advertisers, 2014-18 (sorted by 2017)
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Appendix – Usage of White Spirits
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- Figure 85: Usage of flavoured white spirits, by type^, September 2018
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