Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- UK Solar PV capacity reaches almost 11GW in mid-2016, but deployment drops in first half of 2016 following government subsidy reset
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- Figure 1: Development of Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, 2010-16
- Uptake of solar PV in residential sector plummets in 2016 following FIT cuts
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- Figure 2: Residential Photovoltaic Capacity Installed in the UK, 201015
- RO supported ground-mounted installed capacity reaches 5.2 GW in mid-2016
- Commercial roof-top sector shows strong growth potential, but more supportive government policies are required to enable meaningful development
- Industry needs to prepare for future without government financial support
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- Figure 3: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2016-20
- Market factors
- Companies
- What we think
Key Insights
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- What is the potential impact of Brexit on the UK’s renewable energy policy and the solar PV sector?
- How can solar companies survive these turbulent times following the latest government policy reset?
- With cost-efficient energy storage solutions seen as the ‘holy grail’ of the solar PV market, what are the current market and technological developments in that area?
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Methodology
- Abbreviations
- Market positioning
UK Economy
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- Overview
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- Figure 4: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-16
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- Figure 5: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- House prices
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- Figure 6: UK House price changes, 2004-2016
- Consumer spending
- Manufacturing
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- Figure 7: UK manufacturing, 2014-16
- Business investment
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- Figure 8: UK GFCF 2003-16
- Imports
- Exports
Market Factors
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- Key points
- Government policy
- Renewable energy and climate change policies
- Brexit vote raises uncertainties for renewables industry, although government remains committed to tackling climate change
- Government slashes financial support as costs of solar PV are coming down, resulting in contraction of industry
- Renewable Energy Obligation (RO) and Contracts for Differences (CFDs)
- Feed-in tariff
- Solar PV industry hit by further drastic FIT cuts in February 2016
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- Figure 9: UK Feed in Tariff Levels, July 2016-September 2016
- PV prices
- The UK climate
- Other factors
Market size and trends
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- Key points
- The renewable context
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- Figure 10: Analysis of electricity supplied in the UK, by type of fuel used in generation, 2010-15
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- Figure 11: UK Renewable Penetration of Electricity Supply, 2011-15
- Figure 12: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2010-15
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- Figure 13: UK Renewable energy market shares, 2011 and 2015
- The photovoltaic market to 2016
- Introduction
- The market
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- Figure 14: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, 2010-16
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- Figure 15: Development of Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, 2010-2016
- Market segmentation
- Introduction
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- Figure 16: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2010-16
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- Figure 17: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme 2010-16
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- Figure 18: Photovoltaic Installed Capacity in the UK, by size, as of July 2016
- Residential
- Frequent changes to FITs result in boom-bust cycle in residential solar PV sector
- ‘Free solar’ versus paid-for installations
- Focus to shift to new build?
- UK Housing Stock
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- Figure 19: Residential Dwelling Stock in the UK, by type, 2009-14
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- Figure 20: Residential Photovoltaic Installation Capacity Installed in the UK, 2010-16
- Building mounted
- Number of non-domestic rateable properties
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- Figure 21: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, as at 31 March 2015
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- Figure 22: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by property type, as at 31 March 2015
- Building-mounted PV installations
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- Figure 23: Building Mounted Photovoltaic Installation Capacity Installed in the UK, 2010-16
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- Figure 24: Building Mounted Photovoltaic Installed Capacity in the UK, by size, mid 2016
- Commercial roof-top sector still offers huge growth potential despite subsidy cuts
- Ground mounted
- 7GW installed capacity across 843 solar farms operational
- Short-term growth potential for large-scale solar driven by 1.2ROC projects
- Controversy surrounding large-scale solar
- Ground-mounted solar PV installations
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- Figure 25: Ground Mounted and Large Scale Photovoltaic Installation Capacity Installed in the UK, 2010-16
- Community installations
- New business models starting to emerging
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- Figure 26: Number of community FIT energy installations, Q2 2013 - Q2 2016
- Seasonal market trends
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- Figure 27: Quarterly Photovoltaic Installations in Great Britain, By Type of Installation, Q1 2010-Q2 2016
- Regional development
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- Figure 28: Household Penetration of Photovoltaic Installations in Great Britain, By Region, 2014-16,
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- Figure 29: Regional Distribution of Photovoltaic Installations in Great Britain, By Type and Region, cumulative as of Q2 2016
- The European/world context
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- Figure 30: World, EU and UK Cumulative Photovoltaic Installations, 2010-15
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- Figure 31: World Development of Photovoltaic Installations, 2010-15
Electricity Usage
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- Key points
- Introduction
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- Figure 32: UK Final Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
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- Figure 33: UK Total Energy Consumption, by Sector, 1970-15
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- Figure 34: UK Usage of Energy, 2015
- Industrial
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- Figure 35: UK Industrial Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
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- Figure 36: UK Industrial Energy Consumption, by Sector, 1990-15
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- Figure 37: UK Industrial Electricity Consumption, by Sector, 2000-15
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- Figure 38: UK Industrial Electricity Consumption, by Sector, 2015
- Transport
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- Figure 39: UK Transport Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
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- Figure 40: UK Transport Energy Consumption, by Sector, 1970-15
- Domestic
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- Figure 41: UK Domestic Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
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- Figure 42: UK Domestic Energy Consumption, 1970-15
- Figure 43: UK Domestic Energy Consumption Efficiency, 1970-15
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- Figure 44: UK Domestic Energy Consumption, by Activity, 1990-13
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- Figure 45: UK Household Electricity Usage on Domestic Appliances, 1970-15
- Commerce/Services
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- Figure 46: UK Commercial and Services Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
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- Figure 47: UK Public Administration Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
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- Figure 48: UK Commercial Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 2011-15
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- Figure 49: UK Agricultural Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 2010-15
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- Figure 50: UK Miscellaneous Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 2010-15
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- Figure 51: Detailed Service Sector Energy Consumption, by Activity and Type of Use, 2015
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- Figure 52: Detailed Service Sector Electricity Consumption, by Activity and Type of Use, 2015
Company Profiles
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- Key points
- Company profiles
A shade greener
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- Company Strategy and Outlook
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- Figure 53: Financial Analysis of A Shade Greener, 2011-15
British Solar Renewables
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- Company Review & Outlook
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- Figure 54: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables, 2011-15
Conergy
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- Company strategy and outlook
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- Figure 55: Financial analysis of Conergy UK, 2012-15
Evoenergy
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- Company review & strategy
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- Figure 56: Financial analysis of EvoEnergy, 2011-15
Good Energy Group
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- Company strategy
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- Figure 57: Financial analysis of Good Energy Group, 2011-15
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- Figure 58: Turnover analysis of Good Energy Group, by segment, 2012-15
LCX Solar
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- Figure 59: Financial analysis of LCX Solar, 2012-14
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Elios Renewable Energy (Formerly Lightsource Renewable Energy)
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- Company performance and outlook
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- Figure 60: Financial analysis of Elios Renewable Energy, 2012-15
PV Crystalox Solar
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- Company review and outlook
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- Figure 61: Financial Analysis of PV Crystalox Solar, 2011-15
Martifer Solar
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- UK market outlook
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- Figure 62: Financial Analysis of Martifer Solar UK, 2012-14
Solar Century
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- Company review and outlook
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- Figure 63: Financial Analysis of Solar Century Holdings, 2012-16
Forecast
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- Key points
- Overview
- Government Policy
- STA publishes FIT reform proposals for rooftop solar
- Rise in business rates threatens economic viability of commercial rooftop PV
- Market trends and drivers
- Installers need to diversify and become ‘smart contractors’ to drive future business post FIT
- Installers are diversifying into new technologies and markets
- Energy storage seen as “holy grail” of solar PV sector
- Largely untapped commercial sector to provide strongest growth potential for solar PV deployment
- In 2016, Lightsource has already reported some PPA success -
- New London mayor pledges to support rooftop solar across capital
- Utility sector also offers opportunities for solar firms
- The Market 2016-2020
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- Figure 64: Forecast Photovoltaic Installed Capacity in the UK, 2016-20
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- Figure 65: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2016-20
Further sources & contacts
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- Trade Associations & Regulatory Bodies
- Trade Exhibitions
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