Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, value and volume share, 2012 (est)
- Forecast
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- Figure 2: UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by value, 2007-17
- Volumes outpace value sales in white milk
- Cream sales slow to a standstill
- Slightly slower growth experienced by flavoured milk
- Market factors
- Pricing and supply
- Added-value opportunities among over-55s
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Market share – white milk
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- Figure 3: Estimated brand shares in the white milk market, by value and volume, 2012*
- Market share – cream
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- Figure 4: Estimated brand shares in the UK cream market, by value and volume, 2012*
- Market share – flavoured milk
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- Figure 5: Estimated brand shares in the UK flavoured milk market, by value and volume, 2012*
- NPD activity
- Adspend
- The consumer
- Milk preferences
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- Figure 6: Milk usage in the last three months (any usage in household), by type, February 2013
- Cream preferences
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- Figure 7: Cream usage in the last three months, by type, February 2013
- Low price tops the important factors influencing choice of milk/milk drinks
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- Figure 8: Important factors influencing choice of milk or milk drinks, February 2013
- Attitudes towards milk/milk drinks
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), February 2013
- Attitudes towards cream
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards cream, February 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What key issues should cream companies address to encourage more frequent usage of cream in cooking?
- What market trends can flavoured milk tap into to support its growth prospects?
- How can brands add value to standard white milk?
- How can brands position milk to more effectively appeal to women?
Trend Application
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- Trend: Edutainment
- Trend: Hungry Planet
- Mintel Futures: Generation Next
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Pricing and supply
- Consolidation of supply
- Retail selling prices start to recover to 2011 prices
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- Figure 11: Farmgate Price Index – monthly milk prices, 2007-12
- Relationships with farmers offer a selling point for retailers
- Transparency of milk prices promises a new era in the supply chain
- Opportunities for added value within dairy
- Functional attracts growing interest
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- Figure 12: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2012-17
- The free-from sector is rapidly evolving
- Organic – beleaguered but battling on
- Weak consumer confidence prevails
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- Figure 13: Monthly consumer confidence index, January 2008-December 2012
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- NPD momentum stalls slightly in 2012
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- Figure 14: New product launches in the UK dairy drinks, milk and cream market, and in all dairy, indexed, 2009-12
- Figure 15: Product launches within the UK dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by sub-category, 2009-12
- Own-label continues to be a driving force in innovation
- Competition from international newcomers in the free-from sector
- Milk-based drinks to go provide a source of inspiration for NPD
- Coffee flavours target a more mature, female audience
- Milk looks to fortification for added value in international markets
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Overview of dairy drinks, milk and cream
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- Figure 16: UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by value and volume, 2007-17
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- Figure 17: UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, value and volume share, 2012 (est)
- Outlook
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- Figure 18: UK retail sales and forecast of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by volume, 2007-17
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- Figure 19: UK retail sales and forecast of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by value, 2007-17
- White milk continues to face shrinking value sales
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- Figure 20: UK retail sales of white milk (fresh and long-life), by value and volume, 2007-17
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- Figure 21: Trends in UK average retail price per litre of white milk, flavoured milk and cream, 2007-12
- Outlook – white milk segment
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- Figure 22: UK retail sales and forecast of white milk, by value, 2007-17
- Reduced consumer spending power finally takes its toll on cream in 2012
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- Figure 23: UK retail sales of cream, by value and volume, 2007-17
- Outlook – cream segment
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- Figure 24: UK retail sales and forecast of cream, by value, 2007-17
- Evolution of flavoured milk continues
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- Figure 25: UK retail sales of flavoured milk, by value and volume, 2007-17
- Outlook – flavoured milk segment
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- Figure 26: UK retail sales and forecast of flavoured milk, by value, 2007-17
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Key points
- Consumers are buying more but paying less for standard fresh white milk
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- Figure 27: Retail sales of white milk (fresh and long-life), by type, by value and volume, 2010-12
- Added-value milks struggle to gain momentum, except lactose-free
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- Figure 28: Retail sales of fresh white milk, by type, by value, 2010-12
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- Figure 29: Retail sales of fresh white milk, by type, by volume, 2010-12
- Cream sales lose sight of their earlier momentum
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- Figure 30: Retail sales of cream, by type, by value, 2010-12
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- Figure 31: Retail sales of cream, by type, by volume, 2010-12
Market Share
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- Key points
- Newly formed Müller Wiseman Dairies enjoys growth in 2012
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- Figure 32: Estimated brand shares in the white milk market, by value and volume, 2012*
- Cravendale finds 2012 tough going but maintains market share
- Dairy Crest to focus on FRijj
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- Figure 33: Estimated brand shares in the white milk market, by value and volume, 2011 and 2012
- Milk processors
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- Figure 34: Estimated manufacturer shares of own-label liquid milk sales, by volume, 2012
- Elmlea extends its lead in cream
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- Figure 35: Estimated brand shares in the UK cream market, by value and volume, 2012*
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- Figure 36: Estimated brand shares in the UK cream market, by value and volume, 2011 and 2012
- Chocolate brand Mars grows share in flavoured milk, while Yazoo chases FRijj’s lead
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- Figure 37: Estimated brand shares in the UK flavoured milk market, by value and volume, 2012*
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- Figure 38: Estimated brand shares in the UK flavoured milk market, by value and volume, 2011 and 2012
- Alpro’s growth momentum continues
Companies and Products
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- Alpro
- Arla Foods
- Dairy Crest
- FrieslandCampina
- Medina Dairy
- Müller Wiseman Dairies
- Nestlé UK Ltd
- St Helen’s Farm
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Above-the-line spend rebounds in 2012
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- Figure 39: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the dairy drinks, milk and cream market, 2009-12
- Arla Foods leads the category in adspend
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- Figure 40: Top ten advertisers in the dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by advertiser, 2008-12
- Figure 41: Top ten advertisers in the dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by brand, 2008-12
- Cravendale revives its ‘Cats with Thumbs’ campaign
- Kellogg’s Tip and Sip bowls boost milk’s appeal to children
- Campina refreshes Yazoo brand
- Alpro takes a plant-based approach
- Ambitious Almond Breeze takes a calorie-conscious stance
- OMSCo says Wise up!
- Make Mine Milk teams up with BeatBullying
Consumer – Trends in Milk Usage
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- Key points
- Milk usage patterns reveal lighter usage overall
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- Figure 42: Trends in frequency of using milk in the last 12 months, 2009-12
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- Figure 43: Trends in frequency of using milk in the last 12 months, 2008-12 and 2011-12
- Reasons for lower milk usage
- Lower usage of breakfast cereals
- Consistently high levels of tea consumed
- Competition intensifies in the soft drink arena
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- Figure 44: Trends in types of drink consumed in the past 12 months, 2007-11
Consumer – Usage of Milk and Cream by Type
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- Key points
- Milk and cream preferences
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- Figure 45: Milk usage in the last three months (any usage in household), by type, February 2013
- Semi-skimmed is the clear favourite among UK consumers
- Flavoured milk helps bridge the generation gap
- 1% fat milk lacks resonance with milk users
- Relatively low number of filtered milk users given high-profile brand activity
- Cream usage
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- Figure 46: Cream usage in the last three months, by type, February 2013
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- Figure 47: Cream usage in the last three months, by women and ABs compared to the average, by type, February 2013
- Less occasion to use and affordability are key reasons for low cream usage
- Milk and cream repertoires
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- Figure 48: Repertoire of types of milk/cream used (personal or for household) in the last three months, February 2013
Consumer – Important Factors Influencing Choice of Milk/Milk Drinks
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- Key points
- Low price outweighs health or ethical preferences
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- Figure 49: Factors that would influence choice of milk or milk drinks, February 2013
- Adding value to milk is an uphill challenge but some factors matter more than others
- Added health benefits resonate among a small minority of milk buyers
- Empathy with farmers and local sourcing hold some influence
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Milk/Milk Drinks
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- Key points
- Milk gets the thumbs up as a refreshing drink
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- Figure 50: Attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), February 2013
- New flavours offer opportunities for growth
- Flavoured milk lacks health credentials among ABC1s
Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cream
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- Key points
- Cream faces usage limitations due to concerns over high levels of fat
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- Figure 51: Attitudes towards cream, February 2013
- Health concerns and lack of inspiration are main barriers to usage
- Convenient packaging can offer brands standout
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Figure 52: Number of dairy producers in the UK, 2002-11
- Figure 53: Average consumption of milk per person per week, 2001/02-2011
- Figure 54: Usage of organic dairy products, 2008-12
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- Figure 55: Usage of organic dairy products, by demographics, 2012
- Figure 56: Usage of food with added health benefits (eg probiotic, omega-3 or cholesterol lowering), 2008-12
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- Figure 57: Usage of food with added health benefits (eg probiotic, omega-3 or cholesterol lowering), by demographics, 2012
- Figure 58: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2008-12
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- Figure 59: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012
- Figure 60: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012 (continued)
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- Figure 61: Trends and projections in the UK population (‘000s), by age group, 2007-17
- Figure 62: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2007 prices, 2007-17
- Figure 63: Trends in frequency of use of breakfast cereals, 2009-12
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- Figure 64: Trends in frequency of use of tea, 2009-12
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Appendix – Who’s Innovating?
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- Figure 65: Product launches within the UK dairy drinks, milk and cream market, own-label vs branded, 2009-12
- Figure 66: NPD in the UK dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by top ten companies, 2012
- Figure 67: Product launches within the UK dairy drinks, milk and cream market, own-label vs branded, by segment, 2012
- Figure 68: New product claims in the UK dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by sub-category, 2012
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Appendix – Market Forecast
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- Dairy drinks, milk and cream
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- Figure 69: Forecast of UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 70: Forecast of UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, best- and worst-case forecast, by volume, 2012-17
- White milk
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- Figure 71: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 72: UK retail sales and forecast of white milk, by volume, 2007-17
- Figure 73: Forecast of UK retail sales of white milk, best- and worst-case forecast, by volume, 2012-17
- Cream
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- Figure 74: Forecast of UK retail sales of cream, best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 75: UK retail sales and forecast of cream, by volume, 2007-17
- Figure 76: Forecast of UK retail sales of cream, best- and worst-case forecast, by volume, 2012-17
- Dairy drinks (flavoured milk)
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- Figure 77: Forecast of UK retail sales of flavoured milk, best- and worst-case forecast, by value, 2012-17
- Figure 78: UK retail sales and forecast of flavoured milk, by volume, 2007-17
- Figure 79: Forecast of UK retail sales of flavoured milk, best- and worst-case forecast, by volume, 2012-17
Appendix – Brand Communications
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- Figure 80: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by media type, 2009-12
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Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Milk Usage
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- Figure 81: Types of milk used most often in the last 12 months, 2008-12
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- Figure 82: Kinds of milk used most often in the last 12 months, 2008-12
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- Figure 83: Trends in frequency of drinking yogurt drinks in the last 12 months, 2008-12
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- Figure 84: Frequency of using milk in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 85: Frequency of use of breakfast cereals, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 86: Frequency of use of cereals, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 87: Frequency of use of porridge/oats, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 88: Frequency of use of standard tea, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 89: Frequency of use of herbal/fruit/green tea, by demographics, 2012
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- Figure 90: Frequency of drinking yogurt drinks in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2012
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Milk and Cream by Type
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- Figure 91: Milk usage in the last three months, by type, February 2013
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- Figure 92: Most popular types of milk used in household in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 93: Next most popular types of milk used in household in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 94: Most popular types of milk personally used in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 95: Next most popular types of personally used in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 96: Most popular types of milk used by someone else in my household in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 97: Next most popular types of milk used by someone else in my household in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 98: Repertoire of milk usage in the last three months, February 2013
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- Figure 99: Repertoire of milk usage in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 100: Repertoire of milk usage in the household in the last three months, February 2013
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- Figure 101: Repertoire of milk usage in the household in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 102: Types of milk used in the last three months, by repertoire of milk usage, February 2013
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- Figure 103: Types of milk used in the last three months, by repertoire of milk usage in household, February 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Cream by Type
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- Figure 104: Cream usage in the last three months, by type, February 2013
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- Figure 105: Most popular types of cream used in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 106: Next most popular types of cream used in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 107: Repertoire of cream usage in the last three months, February 2013
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- Figure 108: Repertoire of cream usage in the last three months, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 109: Types of cream used in the last three months, by repertoire of cream usage, by type, February 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Important Factors Influencing Choice of Milk/Milk Drinks
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- Figure 110: Important factors influencing choice of milk or milk drinks, February 2013
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- Figure 111: Most popular important factors influencing choice of milk or milk drinks, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 112: Next most popular important factors influencing choice of milk or milk drinks, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 113: Other important factors influencing choice of milk or milk drinks, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 114: Important factors influencing choice of milk or milk drinks, by most popular types of milk used by someone else in my household in the last three months, February 2013
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- Figure 115: Important factors influencing choice of milk or milk drinks, by next most popular types of milk used by someone else in my household in the last three months, February 2013
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Appendix – Attitudes Towards Milk and Milk Drinks
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- Figure 116: Attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), February 2013
- Figure 117: Most popular attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 118: Next most popular attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), by demographics, February 2013
- Figure 119: Other attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 120: Attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), by most popular types of milk used in household in the last three months, February 2013
- Figure 121: Attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), by next most popular types of milk used in household in the last three months, February 2013
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- Figure 122: Attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), by most popular types of milk personally used in the last three months, February 2013
- Figure 123: Attitudes towards milk and milk drinks (including non-dairy substitutes), by next most popular types of milk personally used in the last three months, February 2013
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Appendix – Attitudes towards Cream
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- Figure 124: Attitudes towards cream, February 2013
- Figure 125: Most popular attitudes towards cream, by demographics, February 2013
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- Figure 126: Next most popular attitudes towards cream, by demographics, February 2013
- Figure 127: Attitudes towards cream, by most popular types of cream used in the last three months, February 2013
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- Figure 128: Attitudes towards cream, by next most popular types of cream used in the last three months, February 2013
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