Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Methodology
- Consumer research
- ACORN
- Abbreviations
Premier Insight
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- New opportunities for the package market?
- Time for a new international advisory body?
- Responding and recovering
Summary of Key Report Findings
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- Resilient market
- Demographic trends raise proportion of resilient travellers
- Domestic holidays declining
- Resilient overseas market overtakes domestic market
- Long-haul market returning to growth despite catastrophes
- Beach/resort holidays remain top, but are losing market share
- New online operators erode traditional capacity
- The trades take on catastrophes
- Britons not easily put off visiting destinations…
- …especially if they are discounted
Market Factors
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- Economic factors
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- Figure 1: GDP and PDI at 2000 prices plus interest rates, 2000-10
- Consumer confidence
- Socio-economic groups
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- Figure 2: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2000-10
- Lifestage
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- Figure 3: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2000-10
- Tourism and terrorism
- Acts of nature
- FCO advice
- Rising oil prices
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- Figure 4: Crude oil prices, 2000-05
- Exchange rates
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- Figure 5: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against the euro and US Dollar, 2000-05
- Increasing Internet usage and other technologies
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- Figure 6: Internet penetration, by gender, socio-economic group and age, 2000-05
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- Figure 7: Penetration of Internet technologies, 2003-05
- Digital TV
Total Holiday Market
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- Figure 8: Domestic and overseas holiday volume, 2000-06
- Multiple holidays becoming more common
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- Figure 9: Proportion of holidaymakers and number of holidays taken in the last 12 months, 2000-05
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The Domestic Holiday Market
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- 7/7 suicide bombings
- Holiday length of stay
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- Figure 10: Short versus long holidays, 2000-05
- Number of holidays taken
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- Figure 11: Number of domestic holidays taken in the last 12 months, 2003-05
- Domestic holidays by region
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- Figure 12: Area visited for last domestic holiday, 2000-05
- Accommodation
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- Figure 13: Type of accommodation used for last domestic holiday, 2000-05
- Transport
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- Figure 14: Main method of transport used for last domestic holiday, 2000-05
- Seasonality
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- Figure 15: Month last domestic holiday began, 2000-05
The Overseas Holiday Market
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- Figure 16: Overseas holidays and expenditure, at constant and current prices, 2000-06
- Short versus long holidays
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- Figure 17: Short (1-3 nights) versus long holidays (4+ nights), by volume and value, 2000-06
- Inclusive versus independent
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- Figure 18: Inclusive holidays versus independent holidays, by volume, 2000-06
- Regions visited
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- Figure 19: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2000-05
- More holidays taken during the year
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- Figure 20: Number of holidays abroad taken in the last 12 months, 2003-05
- Type of accommodation used
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- Figure 21: Type of accommodation used for last holiday abroad, 2000-05
- Method of transport
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- Figure 22: Main method of transport used for last holiday abroad, 2000-05
- Seasonality
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- Figure 23: Month last holiday abroad began, 2000-05
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Market Segmentation
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- Figure 24: Type of holiday taken in the past year, 2004 and 2005
- Beach/resort holidays
- City breaks
- Camping and caravanning
- Lake and mountains
- Skiing/snowboarding
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- Figure 25: Market size, by volume and value, 2000/01-2004/05
- Cruise
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- Figure 26: Passengers taking an ocean cruise, 2000-06
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Distribution
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- Domestic holidays
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- Figure 27: How last domestic holiday was booked, 2000-05
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- Figure 28: Method used to book last domestic holiday, 2003-05
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- Figure 29: How last domestic holiday was booked, by booking method, 2005
- Overseas holidays
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- Figure 30: How last holiday abroad was booked, 2000-05
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- Figure 31: Method used to book last holiday abroad, 2003-05
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- Figure 32: How last holiday abroad was booked, by booking method, 2005
- Commission cuts
- Supermarkets’ foray into selling travel
The Supply Structure
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- ATOLs issued
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- Figure 33: Passengers licensed to top ten groups and companies, year to September 2001-05
- Operator profiles
- TUI UK
- General Profile
- Financials
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- Figure 34: World of TUI, Northern Europe division, financial performance, 2001-05
- Developments
- Thomas Cook
- General Profile
- Financials
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- Figure 35: Thomas Cook AG and Thomas Cook UK, financial performance, 2000/01-2003/04
- Developments
- MyTravel
- General profile
- Financials
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- Figure 36: MyTravel Group plc, financial performance, 2000-05
- Developments
- First Choice Holidays plc
- General Profile
- Financials
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- Figure 37: First Choice Holidays plc, group financial performance, 2000-05
- Developments
- Cosmos group of companies
- General profile
- Developments
- Expedia
- Parent: Expedia Inc fully quoted
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- Figure 38: Expedia.com Ltd, financial performance, 2001-03
- Figure 39: Ebookers, financial performance, 2000-2004
- Figure 40: Excel Airways group, financial performance, 2003 and 2004
- Figure 41: Gold Medal International, financial performance, 2000-04
The Consumer
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- Types of holidays taken
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- Figure 42: Type of holiday taken in the past year, 2004 and 2005
- Multiple Holidaymaking
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- Figure 43: Number of holidays taken, by the organisation of holiday, October 2005
- Essential factors for an enjoyable holiday
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- Figure 44: Elements of an enjoyable holiday, 2000-05
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- Figure 45: Elements of an enjoyable holiday, by type of holiday taken, 2005
The Impact of Terrorism and Natural Disasters – An Industry Perspective
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- Terrorism – the least damage to tourism volume
- Natural disasters
- Price
- Health scares
- Repatriation
- Foreign Office Advice
The Impact of Terrorism and Natural Disasters – A Consumer Perspective
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- Destinations avoided
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- Figure 46: Destinations avoided due to terrorism, natural disasters or health scares, September 2005
- Egypt
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- Figure 47: UK visits and spending in Egypt, 1995-2004
- The United States
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- Figure 48: British residents’ arrivals and expenditure to the US, 1995-2004
- The Middle East
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- Figure 49: British residents’ expenditure and visitor numbers to the Middle East, 1995-2004
- London
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- Figure 50: Overseas arrivals in London, Q1 2003-Q3 2005
- Turkey
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- Figure 51: British residents’ expenditure and visitor numbers to Turkey, 1995-2004
- Thailand
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- Figure 52: British residents’ expenditure and visitor numbers in Thailand, 1995-2004
- Indonesia
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- Figure 53: British residents’ expenditure and visitors number to Indonesia, 1995-2004
- Destinations avoided by organisation of holiday
- Package versus independent
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- Figure 54: Destinations avoided, by independent and package holidaymakers, September 2005
- Short-haul versus long-haul
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- Figure 55: Destinations avoided, by short-haul and long-haul holidaymakers, September 2005
- Destination avoided by type of holiday taken
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- Figure 56: Main destinations put off visiting by package holidaymakers, September 2005
- Destinations avoided by factors that make an enjoyable holiday
- Organisational elements
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- Figure 57: Main destinations put off visiting, by organisational factors that make an enjoyable holiday, September 2005
- Destination elements
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- Figure 58: Main destinations put off visiting, by destinational factors that make an enjoyable holiday, September 2005
- Attitudes towards disasters
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards disasters, September 2005
- The Cautious
- Cautious attitudes by organisation of holiday
- Independent versus package holidays
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- Figure 60: Agreement with cautious attitudes, by organisation of holiday taken in the past 12 months, September 2005
- Short-haul versus long-haul
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- Figure 61: Agreement with the cautious attitudes, by type of package holiday taken in the past 12 months, September 2005
- Cautious attitudes by destinations put off visiting
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- Figure 62: Main destinations put off visiting, by cautious attitudes, September 2005
- The Resilient
- Resilient attitudes by organisation of holiday
- Independent versus package holidaymakers
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- Figure 63: Resilient attitudes, by type of independent holiday taken in the past 12 months, September 2005
- Short-haul versus long-haul
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- Figure 64: Resilient attitudes, by type of independent holiday taken in the past 12 months, September 2005
- Resilient attitudes by destinations put off visiting
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- Figure 65: Main destinations put off visiting, by resilient attitudes, September 2005
- Are tourists becoming more resistant?
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- Figure 66: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters, September 2005
- Changing attitudes by organisation of holiday
- Package versus independent
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- Figure 67: Whether tourist are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters, package versus independent holidays, September 2005
- Short-haul versus long-haul
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- Figure 68: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters, long-haul versus short-haul, September 2005
- Changing attitudes by destinations avoided
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- Figure 69: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters, by destinations avoided, September 2005
- Resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters by cautious and resilient attitudes
- Cautious attitudes
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- Figure 70: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters, by cautious attitudes, September 2005
- Resilient attitudes
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- Figure 71: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters, by resilient attitudes, September 2005
- The impact of discounting
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- Figure 72: The impact of discounting at destinations affected by terrorism and natural disasters, September 2005
- The impact of discounting by organisation of holiday
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- Figure 73: The impact of discounting at destinations affected by terrorism and natural disasters, independent versus package holdiays, September 2005
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- Figure 74: The impact of discounting at destinations affected by terrorism and natural disasters, short-haul versus long-haul, September 2005
- The impact of discounting by destinations avoided
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- Figure 75: The impact of discounting at destinations affected by terrorism and natural disasters, by destinations avoided, September 2005
- The impact of discounting by cautious attitudes
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- Figure 76: The impact of discounting at destinations affected by terrorism and natural disasters, by cautious attitudes, September 2005
- The impact of discounting by resilient attitudes
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- Figure 77: The impact of discounting at destinations affected by terrorism and natural disasters, by resilient attitudes, September 2005
- Consumer target groups
- Tenacious Travellers (37% of the population) 18.3 million adults
- Placid Travellers (28% of the population) 13.8 million adults
- Terror-stricken Travellers (35% of the population) 17.3 million adults
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- Figure 78: Target groups, by gender, age, socio-economic group, working and marital status, September 2005
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- Figure 79: Target groups, by region and ACORN group, September 2005
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- Figure 80: Target groups, by detailed lifestage groups, September 2005
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- Figure 81: Target groups, by daily and Sunday newspaper readership and supermarket usage, September 2005
- Target groups by organisation of holiday
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- Figure 82: Target groups, by location organisation of holiday, September 2005
- Target groups by type of holiday taken
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- Figure 83: Types of holidays taken, by typology, September 2005
- Target groups by what makes an enjoyable holiday
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- Figure 84: Target groups, by what factors make an enjoyable holiday, September 2005
- Target groups by countries avoided
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- Figure 85: Target groups, by countries avoided, September 2005
Detailed Demographics
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- Types of holiday taken
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- Figure 86: Types of holiday, by gender, age, socio-economic group, working and marital status, September 2005
- Figure 87: Types of holiday, by region and ACORN group, September 2005
- Figure 88: Types of holiday, by detailed lifestage groups, September 2005
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- Figure 89: Types of holiday, by daily and Sunday newspaper readership, grocery storesupermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, September 2005
- Destinations put off visiting
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- Figure 90: Main destinations put off visiting, by gender, age, socio-economic group, working and marital status, September 2005
- Figure 91: Main destinations put off visiting, by region and ACORN group, September 2005
- Figure 92: Main destinations put off visiting, by detailed lifestage groups, September 2005
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- Figure 93: Main destinations put off visiting, by daily and Sunday newspaper readership, supermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, September 2005
- Figure 94: Other destinations put off visiting, by gender, age, socio-economic group, working and marital status, September 2005
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- Figure 95: Other destinations put off visiting, by region and ACORN group, September 2005
- Figure 96: Other destinations put off visiting, by detailed lifestage groups, September 2005
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- Figure 97: Other destinations put off visiting, by daily and Sunday newspaper readership, supermarket usage, September 2005
- Cautious attitudes
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- Figure 98: Penetration of cautious attitudes, by gender, age, socio-economic group, working and marital status, September 2005
- Figure 99: Penetration of cautious attitudes, by region and ACORN group, September 2005
- Figure 100: Penetration of cautious attitudes, by detailed lifestage groups, September 2005
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- Figure 101: Penetration of cautious attitudes, by daily and Sunday newspaper readership, supermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, September 2005
- Resilient attitudes
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- Figure 102: Penetration of cautious attitudes, by gender, age, socio-economic group, working and marital status, September 2005
- Figure 103: Penetration of cautious attitudes, by region and ACORN group, September 2005
- Figure 104: Penetration of cautious attitudes, by detailed lifestage groups, September 2005
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- Figure 105: Penetration of cautious attitudes, by daily and Sunday newspaper readership, supermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, September 2005
- Changing attitudes
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- Figure 106: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters: response, by gender, age, socio-economic group, working and marital status, September 2005
- Figure 107: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters: Response, by region and ACORN group, September 2005
- Figure 108: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters: Response, by detailed lifestage groups, September 2005
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- Figure 109: Whether tourists are more resistant towards terrorism and natural disasters: Response, by daily and Sunday newspaper readership, supermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, September 2005
- Attitudes towards discounting
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- Figure 110: Attitudes towards price discounts, by gender, age, socio-economic group, working status, September 2005
- Figure 111: Attitudes towards price discounts, by region and ACORN group, September 2005
- Figure 112: Attitudes towards price discounts, by detailed lifestage groups, September 2005
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- Figure 113: Attitudes to price discounts, by daily and Sunday newspaper readership, supermarket usage and commercial TV viewing, September 2005
- Figure 114: Target groups, by attitudes towards terrorism and natural disasters, September 2005
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- Figure 115: Target groups, by resistance to terrorism and natural disasters, September 2005
- Figure 116: The impact of discounting at destinations affected by terrorism and natural disasters, by target groups, September 2005
The Future
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- Short-term uncertainties but long-term growth
- Bird flu
- More guidance
- Return to package?
- Trends
Forecast
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- Expenditure and overseas trips continue to grow
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- Figure 117: Forecast of expenditure on overseas holidays, volume and value 2005-10
- Short versus long holidays
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- Figure 118: Forecast for long versus short breaks by volume, 2005-10
- Inclusive versus independent holidays
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- Figure 119: Forecast of inclusive volume versus independent holidays by volume, 2005-10
- Scenario-based forecast
- Scenario 1 – static
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- Figure 120: Static demographic forecast on the outlook of holiday destinations forecast, 2005-10
- Scenario 2 – travellers are becoming more ‘hardened’ to terror-stricken destinations
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- Figure 121: Positive change in demographic outlook on holiday destinations forecast, 2005-10
- Scenario 3 – travellers lose confidence
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- Figure 122: Negative change in demographic outlook on holiday destinations forecast, 2005-10
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- Figure 123: Demographic breakdown of consumer typologies, 2005
- Factors used in the forecast
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