Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Market sees dramatic fall off due to closure of cinemas and ongoing COVID-19 impact
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cinemas, January 2020
- The market
- Market volume suffers significant fall in 2020
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- Figure 2: UK cinema market volume (admissions), 2015-25
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- Figure 3: Cinema market volume (admissions), 2015-25
- Decline in average spend per admission drives market value down faster
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- Figure 4: UK cinema market value, 2015-25
- Figure 5: UK cinema market value, 2015-25
- Fluctuations in consumer confidence remain minor despite the changing landscape
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- Figure 6: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, Jan20-Jan21
- Major chains close their doors temporarily in a bid to save off permanent closure
- Independent films see more traction in absence of big blockbusters
- Culture Recovery Fund launches to help independent cinemas stay afloat
- Companies and brands
- Pay-TV and streaming services line up exclusive content with production houses and directors
- Cinemas turn to novel drive-ins, pop-ups and socially distanced events to keep the show on the road
- Cinemas offer their own streaming platforms to support bricks and mortar operations in lockdown
- Amazon and Curzon tie-up for theatrical release of One Night in Miami scuppered by Covid-19
- National Lottery and BFI partner on National Lottery Cinema Weekend
- The consumer
- COVID-19 has had a severe impact on consumer comfort with visiting cinemas
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- Figure 7: Level of comfort in going to the cinema/theatre June-November 2020
- Drop off in visiting the cinema in 2020
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- Figure 8: Cinema visiting, October 2018, September 2019 and September 2020
- Action leads the way for favoured genre
- Drama finds more favour among older generations
- A varied slate of genres can hedge against unforeseen downturns
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- Figure 9: Genres of film watched at the cinema last 12 months, September 2020
- Standard 2D showings still dominate
- Varied types of screening can cater to the avid cinema-goer
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- Figure 10: Type of screenings seen in last 12 months, September 2019, September 2020
- Multiplexes benefit from all-round appeal
- Smaller independent and niche cinema experiences can help broaden cinema’s reach
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- Figure 11: Cinemas’ correspondence analysis, September 2020
- Over eight in 10 cinema goers have not returned since reopening
- Younger men more likely to have returned
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- Figure 12: Potential ways to encourage cinema-going amongst lapsed cinema-goers, September 2020
- Appetite for cinema-going still significant despite COVID-19’s impact
- Consumers’ growing sense of local connection can help cinemas survive
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- Figure 13: Attitudes to cinema-going under COVID-19, September 2020
Issues and Insights
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- No time to die for the cinema experience, despite streaming’s looming spectre
- Cinema needs to come back all guns blazing
- Pent-up demand and delayed releases can lay the platform for a festival of cinema
- Diversification will be needed in the short term to draw a broader range of audiences to cinemas
- Documentaries and live streaming could be underexploited genres for cinemas
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Market volume and value suffer significant fall in 2020 due to COVID-19
- Fluctuations in consumer confidence remain minor despite the changing landscape
- Major chains close their doors in a bid to save off permanent closure
- Consumers increasingly turned to streaming video services in 2020
Market Size and Forecast
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- Market sees dramatic fall off due to closure of cinemas and ongoing COVID-19 impact
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- Figure 14: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cinemas, January 2020
- Market volume suffers significant fall in 2020
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- Figure 15: UK cinema market volume (admissions), 2015-25
- Figure 16: Cinema market volume (admissions), 2015-25
- Decline in average spend per admission drives market value down faster
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- Figure 17: UK cinema market value, 2015-25
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- Figure 18: UK cinema market value, 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 19: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 2 December 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 20: UK cinema market, 2005-10
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Average retail spend per head decreases due to closure of restaurants and cafes
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- Figure 21: UK cinema market, by segment, 2015-20
- Cinema admissions decimated by COVID-19
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- Figure 22: UK cinema admissions, by month, 2016-2020
Market Drivers
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- Fluctuations in consumer confidence remain minor despite the changing landscape
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- Figure 23: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, Jan20-Jan21
- Major chains close their doors temporarily in a bid to save off permanent closure
- Consumers can Marvel at slate of delayed films set to hit cinemas in 2021
- Independent films see more traction in absence of big blockbusters
- Culture Recovery Fund launches to help independent cinemas stay afloat
- Cineworld secures a cash bailout to survive through COVID-19
- Pay-TV and streaming services line up exclusive content with production houses and directors
- Straight-to-digital and limited theatrical releases shift the dynamic of the exhibitor-studio relationship
- Consumers increasingly turn to streaming video services in 2020
- Despite streaming’s threat to the cinema experience, it could be cinemas’ biggest trailer yet
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- Figure 24: Use of paid-for video subscription services, December 2017–2-14 July 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Cinemas focus on providing community service during Christmas period
- Cinemas offer their own streaming platforms to support bricks and mortar operations in lockdown
- National Lottery and BFI partner on National Lottery Cinema Weekend in March 2021
- Drive-ins, pop-ups and socially distanced events keep the cinematic show on the road
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Cinemas turn to novel drive-ins, pop-ups and socially distanced events to keep the show on the road
- Global approach to COVID-19 disruption can point to possibilities for UK market
- Alhambra provides community service during Christmas period
- Cinemas offer their own streaming platforms to support bricks and mortar operations in lockdown
- Amazon and Curzon tie-up for theatrical release of One Night in Miami scuppered by COVID-19
- National Lottery and BFI partner on National Lottery Cinema Weekend
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- 2020 advertising spend significantly down on previous years
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- Figure 25: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure for UK film distributors and cinemas, 2015-20*
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- Figure 26: Share of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure by film distributors, 2018,2019, Jan-Oct 2020
- Figure 27: Share of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure by film distributors, 2018, 2019, Jan-Oct 2020
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Market Share
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- Incremental increase in number of sites in 2020
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- Figure 28: Major cinema operators’ UK sites and screens, November 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 has had a severe impact on consumer comfort with visiting cinemas
- Cinema and theatre visitation has fallen off dramatically due to COVID-19 closures over the past year
- Action leads the way for favoured genre
- Standard 2D showings still dominate
- Multiplexes are seen as the all-rounders
- Discount schemes and awareness of independent safety measures can help bring back audiences
- Appetite for cinema-going still significant despite COVID-19’s impact
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- COVID-19 has had a severe impact on consumer comfort with visiting cinemas
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- Figure 29: Level of comfort in going to the cinema/theatre June-November 2020
- Cinema and theatre visiting has fallen off dramatically due to COVID-19 closures over the past year
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- Figure 30: Frequency of cinema/theatre visiting, Oct 19, Jan 20 and Oct 20
Cinema Visiting
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- Drop off in visiting the cinema in 2020
- Rural and town cinema-going can increase post COVID-19
- Vue from the top
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- Figure 31: Cinema visiting, October 2018, September 2019 and September 2020
Genres of Films Watched at the Cinema
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- Action leads the way for favoured genre
- Drama finds more favour among older generations
- Anniversary showings can help cinemas reconnect with lapsed audiences
- A varied slate of genres can hedge against unforeseen downturns
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- Figure 32: Genres of film watched at the cinema last 12 months, September 2020
Screening Type
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- Standard 2D showings still dominate
- Cinematic experience is ripe for live streamed music events
- Varied types of screening can cater to the avid cinema-goer
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- Figure 33: Type of screenings seen in last 12 months, September 2019, September 2020
Cinema Attributes
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- Multiplexes benefit from all-round appeal
- Smaller independent and niche cinema experiences can help broaden cinema’s reach
- Boutique cinemas seen as expensive
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- Figure 34: Cinemas’ correspondence analysis, September 2020
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- Figure 35: Cinemas’ correspondence analysis, September 2020
Attitudes Towards Returning to The Cinema
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- Over eight in 10 cinema-goers have not returned since reopening
- Younger men more likely to have returned
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- Figure 36: Cinema attendance amongst cinema goers since reopening of cinemas in July, September 2020
- Discount schemes and awareness of independent safety measures can help bring back audiences
- Framing the relative risk compared to other activities can help assuage some doubters
- Exclusivity still a main draw for audiences
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- Figure 37: Potential ways to encourage cinema-going amongst lapsed cinema goers, September 2020
The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Attitudes to Cinema-Going
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- Appetite for cinema-going still significant despite COVID-19’s impact
- Consumers’ growing sense of local connection can help cinemas survive
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- Figure 38: Cinemas – CHAID – tree output, September 2020
- The elephant in the room might shift cinemas’ role in the viewing ecosystem for good
- Cinemas are still unrivalled when it comes to witnessing creative vision
- Tie-ups with streaming services may be necessary
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- Figure 39: Attitudes to cinema-going under COVID-19, September 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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