Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice breakfast and brunch
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- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on foodservice breakfast and brunch
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Re-emergence
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- Figure 4: Change in breakfast ordering frequency before COVID-19; Anticipated change in breakfast ordering frequency in six months, net changes, by select demographics, July 2020
- Deals can help LSRs stay competitive
- Breakfast delivery can break up the mundane
- Recovery
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- Figure 5: Breakfast/brunch interest, July 2020
- Brunch stages a comeback
- Restaurants will adjust to remote workers
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Foodservice breakfast faces challenging future
- Consumers will cut out foodservice breakfast during a recession
- Change in work behaviors will depress breakfast’s recovery
Foodservice Market Size and Forecast
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- Restaurant revenues plunge
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 8: US unemployment rate, January 2007–July 2020
- Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice breakfast and brunch
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- Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on foodservice breakfast and brunch
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 10: Annual personal consumption expenditures, foodservice, 2000-2019
- Figure 11: Annual personal consumption expenditures, foodservice, 2000-2019
Market Factors
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- Foodservice depends on discretionary income
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- Figure 12: US unemployment rate, January 2007–July 2020
- Figure 13: Consumer confidence index, January 2007–July 2020
- Shift to working from home will change how consumers eat
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- Figure 14: Employment status during pandemic, June 2020
- Plant-based diets are trending
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- Figure 15: Dietary preferences, March 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Go big so they don’t stay home
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- Figure 16: Indulgent and savory breakfast menu items
- Coffee can be a breakfast draw, but chains are already abandoning morning brews
- Gen Z are high frequency snackers
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- Figure 17: Dining out daypart frequency prior to COVID-19, by generation, once a week or more often, May 2020
- Chains need to promote breakfast delivery
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- Figure 18: Delivery interest by occasion – net any restaurant segment, by race and ethnicity, May 2020
- Consumers will be due for a brunch revival
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- Figure 19: How restaurants can make consumers feel safe when dining, July 2020
- Price will be paramount
- Attract remote workers in a post-pandemic world
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Wendy’s breakfast entry creates new competition
- Midscales innovate with delivery
- Chains launch new coffee drinks and plant-based protein options
Competitive Strategies
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- Wendy’s creates a new value war
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- Figure 20: Wendy’s Facebook ad, July 2020
- Midscales use delivery to target families
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- Figure 21: IHOP Facebook ad, June 2020
- Figure 22: Denny’s email “Packs that feed the fun!”, July 24, 2020
- Coffee goes cold
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- Figure 23: Coffee drinks ordered away from home, any drink, by age, April 2020
- Figure 24: Coffee LTOs launched in 2020
- Plant-based proteins come to breakfast
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- Figure 25: Plant-based meat alternative menu items
- Figure 26: Dunkin’ Beyond Sausage online ad, November 2019
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Consumers predict they will order breakfast less often in next six months
- Parents want convenient, family-focused breakfast solutions
- Independent FSRs may lose their core consumers
- Adventure Eaters want plant-based options
Foodservice Daypart Visitation
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- Breakfast lags behind other dayparts
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- Figure 27: Foodservice daypart visitation, July 2020
- Millennials are core breakfast buyers
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- Figure 28: Foodservice daypart visitation, by generation, July 2020
- Parents are in need of breakfast options
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- Figure 29: Foodservice daypart visitation, by parental status and age, July 2020
Change in Ordering Breakfast Before and After COVID-19
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- Consumers are mixed when considering future behaviors
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- Figure 30: Change in breakfast ordering frequency before COVID-19; Anticipated change in breakfast ordering frequency in six months, July 2020
- Older consumers will drop out of the market
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- Figure 31: Change in breakfast ordering frequency before COVID-19; Anticipated change in breakfast ordering frequency in six months, net changes, by select demographics, July 2020
- QSRs will need to rely on low prices to retain customers
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- Figure 32: Change in breakfast ordering frequency before COVID-19; Anticipated change in breakfast ordering frequency in six months, net changes, by foodservice segment visitors, July 2020
Breakfast and Brunch Ordering, by Segment
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- Loss of breakfast revenue will hurt QSR chains
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- Figure 33: Breakfast and brunch ordering by location, July 2020
- Independents at risk of losing Baby Boomers
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- Figure 34: Breakfast and brunch ordering by location, net breakfast or brunch, by generation, July 2020
- C-stores must innovate to compete with QSRs
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- Figure 35: Breakfast and brunch ordering by location, net breakfast or brunch, by food and drink shopper segmentation, July 2020
Definition of Healthy Breakfast/Brunch Items
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- High protein and low sugar are universally appealing claims
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- Figure 36: Healthy breakfast/brunch item definition, July 2020
- Attract Adventure Eaters with non-dairy options
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- Figure 37: Healthy breakfast/brunch item definition, by food and drink shopper segmentation, July 2020
Breakfast and Brunch Interest
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- Rethink convenience in a post-pandemic world
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- Figure 38: Breakfast/brunch interest, July 2020
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- Figure 39: Breakfast/brunch interest, by foodservice segment visitors .July 2020
- A comprehensive sanitation and safety program is good for business
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- Figure 40: Breakfast/brunch interest, by anticipated changes in breakfast/brunch ordering, July 2020
- Adventure Eaters are early adopters of plant-based protein menu items
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- Figure 41: Breakfast/brunch interest, by food and drink shopper segmentation, July 2020
Breakfast and Brunch Behaviors
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- Remote workers are ordering less breakfast AFH
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- Figure 42: Breakfast/brunch behaviors, July 2020
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- Figure 43: Breakfast/brunch behaviors, by anticipated changes in breakfast/brunch ordering, July 2020
- Gen Z and Millennials are sourcing breakfast via takeout and delivery
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- Figure 44: Breakfast/brunch behaviors, by generation, July 2020
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- Figure 45: Reasons for ordering delivery from restaurants more often than usual, any rank, by generation, May 2020
- Target parents with delivery promotions
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- Figure 46: Breakfast/brunch behaviors, by parental status and age, July 2020
Breakfast and Brunch Attitudes
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- Foodservice breakfast will be slow to recover
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- Figure 47: Breakfast and brunch attitudes, breakfast and COVID attitudes, any agree, July 2020
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- Figure 48: Breakfast and brunch attitudes, any agree, July 2020
- Great coffee and innovative dishes can help chains retain Millennial customers
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- Figure 49: Breakfast and brunch attitudes, any agree, by generation, July 2020
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- Figure 50: Breakfast and brunch attitudes, any agree, by anticipated changes in breakfast/brunch ordering, July 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segments
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of foodservice revenues, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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