Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
- Market factors
- Health concerns heightened by the high-profile sugar debate
- An improvement in consumer spending and confidence
- Demographic changes present challenges and opportunities
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Own-label has a strong position in home baking ingredients
- Own-label stole the lead in NPD in 2013
- A drop in adspend in 2013
- The consumer
- Britain remains a nation of bakers…but its popularity has fallen in the last year
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- Figure 2: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
- Baking has strong associations with relaxation
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- Figure 3: How consumers feel when baking, March 2014
- Special offers hold a lot of sway
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- Figure 4: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
- Baking is seen as an important life skill
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
- Strong demand for resealable packaging
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- Figure 6: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
- What we think
Trend Application
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- Trend: Slow It All Down
- Trend: Retired for Hire
- Trend: Hungry Planet
Issues and Insights
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- It will become increasingly important for companies to keep baking front of mind for consumers as the economy rebounds
- The facts
- The implications
- Companies which support health-conscious bakers are likely to reap rewards
- The facts
- The implications
- Targeted marketing campaigns can help to enhance the appeal of home baking among the older generation
- The facts
- The implications
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Most Britons are keen to lose weight
- The high-profile sugar debate threatens demand for baking
- Potential for alternative sweeteners and savoury items
- Consumer spending gathers momentum…
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- Figure 7: Consumer expenditure and savings, at current prices, 2009-19
- …with home baking threatened by less frugal mindsets
- The ageing population presents a challenge
- Shift towards smaller households hinders the market
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Own-label takes command of home baking NPD
- 2013 was the turn of Sainsbury’s and Waitrose to up the ante
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- Figure 8: New product activity in home baking ingredients, own-label vs branded, 2009-14
- Figure 9: Top 10 companies, by share of launches in UK home baking market, 2009-14
- Dr Oetker leads the brands
- Yellow fats look to NPD to target bakers
- Vegetarian is the most common claim
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- Figure 10: Top 10 product claims in new launches in the home baking market, 2009-14
- A jump in Halloween launches in the home baking market in 2013
- Limited products with convenient packaging
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- The home baking ‘bubble’ has burst
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
- The future
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- Figure 12: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
- Factors used in the forecast
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Eggs take the lion’s share of sales
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- Figure 13: Share of UK retail sales in the home baking market, by segment, 2014 (est)
- Figure 14: UK retail value sales in the home baking market, by segment, 2009-19
- Challenging times for the sugar market
- Flour and baking mixes fall from favour
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales in the baking mixes, pastry and suet segment, by sub-segment, 2011-14
- Cake coverings and culinary aids are the only segment to defy the downturn
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales in the cake decorating, cake coverings, culinary aids and cooking chocolate segment, by sub-segment, 2011-14
Market Share
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- Key points
- Whitworths is the rising star in sugar
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- Figure 17: Brand shares in UK retail sales of sugar, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- A strong performance from Canderel
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- Figure 18: Brand shares in UK retail sales of artificial sweetener, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- A decline in flour and baking mixes
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- Figure 19: Brand shares in UK retail sales of flour and dry baking mixes, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Big gains for own-label in cake coverings, decorations and culinary aids
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- Figure 20: Brand shares in UK retail sales of cake coverings, decorations and culinary aids, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Companies and Products
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- Dr Oetker
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Marketing and promotion
- General Mills
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Marketing and promotion
- Kerry Foods
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Marketing and promotion
- Premier Foods
- Background
- Product range
- The Silver Spoon Company
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
- Marketing and promotion
- Symington’s
- Background
- Product range
- Product innovation
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- A drop in adspend in 2013
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- Figure 21: Topline advertising expenditure in the UK home baking market, by sub-segment, 2010-14
- Dr Oetker took the lead in 2013
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- Figure 22: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking*, by top 10 advertisers, 2010-14
- Waitrose and Sainsbury’s are the top-spending supermarkets
- Sugar brands cut back
- New TV ad campaign for Happy Eggs
- General Mills stepped up advertising in 2013
The Consumer – Home Baking Habits
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- Key points
- Britain is a nation of bakers…
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- Figure 23: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
- …but there has been a decline in baking since summer 2013
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- Figure 24: Frequency of baking at home, June 2013 and March 2014
- Baking enjoys strong family appeal
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- Figure 25: Consumers baking partly from scratch and totally from scratch at least once a week, by gender and age, March 2014
- Cakes are the go-to baking creations
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- Figure 26: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
- Generational divide in baking habits
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- Figure 27: Consumers who have baked batters, sweet puddings, sweet pies and tarts and savoury pies/tarts/pastries from scratch in the last 12 months, by age, March 2014
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- Figure 28: Consumers who have baked biscuits/cookies, brownies, muffins or pizza bases in the last 12 months, by age, March 2014
- Bakers have a narrow repertoire
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- Figure 29: Repertoire of items baked totally and partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
The Consumer – Feelings Associated with Home Baking
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- Key points
- Baking has strong associations with relaxation
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- Figure 30: How consumers feel when baking, March 2014
- Under-35s are most adventurous
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- Figure 31: Consumers who feel proud, adventurous, confident and economical when baking, by age, March 2014
The Consumer – Choice Factors for Baking Mixes, Cake Coverings or Decorations
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- Key analysis
- Special offers hold a lot of sway
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- Figure 32: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
- Bakers opt for tried and tested products
- Notable interest in high-quality ingredients
- A sizeable minority look for better-for-you options
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Home Baking
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- Key points
- Baking is seen as an important life skill
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- Figure 33: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
- Opportunities to help bakers develop their skills
- Experimentation is popular
- Interest in single-serve cake mixes from one in four bakers
The Consumer – Further Attitudes Towards Home Baking
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- Key points
- Strong demand for resealable packaging
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- Figure 34: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
- The health agenda limits baking for one in three
- Interest in better-for-you ingredients
- Are natural sweeteners an answer to sugar concerns in baking?
- Baking with vegetables and high-protein recipes sparks interest
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales within the home baking, 2014-19
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Appendix – Segment Performance
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- Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of eggs, 2014-19
- Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of sugar and sweeteners, 2014-19
- Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of flour, yeast, baking mixes, pastry and suet, 2014-19
- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of cake coverings, decorations, culinary aids and cooking chocolate, 2014-19
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Appendix – The Consumer – Home Baking Habits
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- Figure 40: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
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- Figure 41: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
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- Figure 42: Repertoire of items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
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- Figure 43: Repertoire of items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
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- Figure 44: Frequency of baking at home – Bake partly from scratch (using ready-prepared pastry, cake mix or bread mix), by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 45: Frequency of baking at home – Bake totally from scratch (using individual raw ingredients), by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 46: Most popular items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 47: Next most popular items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 48: Most popular items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 49: Next most popular items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 50: Repertoire of items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 51: Repertoire of items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Feelings Associated with Home Baking
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- Figure 52: Feelings associated with home baking, March 2014
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- Figure 53: Most popular feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 54: Next most popular feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 55: Other feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Choice Factors for Baking Mixes, Cake Coverings or Decorations
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- Figure 56: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
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- Figure 57: Most popular choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 58: Next most popular choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Home Baking
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
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- Figure 60: Most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 61: Next most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 62: Other attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Further Attitudes Towards Home Baking
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- Figure 63: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
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- Figure 64: Most popular further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 65: Next most popular further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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- Figure 66: Other further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
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