The home baking bubble has finally burst after several years of impressive growth kick-started by the recession. Value growth slowed to 2% year on year in 2013 (driven solely by inflation), and is expected to go into decline in 2014. This downturn is supported by Mintel’s consumer data which indicate that the proportion of Britons who bake has fallen by 8 percentage points between June 2013 and March 2014.

That this fall happened as a significant rise in consumer confidence was evident, against a backdrop of economic recovery, is unlikely to be complete coincidence. People tend to bake for enjoyment rather than as a means of saving money. However, baking faces growing competition from out-of-home leisure activities as people start to spend more freely and release pent-up demand for going out and having fun.

Arguably it is health concerns that have had the biggest impact on consumer demand. These have been heightened by the great deal of negative press attention sugar has received in the last year, this a main ingredient in many baked goods.

The market is defined by Mintel to cover the staple commodity products and additives used in home baking. The products included are as follows:

• eggs

• prepacked flour (including bread mixes)

• sugar

• icing sugar

• chilled/frozen pastry

• suet

• baking spices, eg nutmeg, cinnamon

• flavourings and colourings

• dried yeast and raising agents

• cake coverings and decorations

• cooking chocolate

• baking mixes (cake, bread, savoury and pastry).

• sweet spreads and jams

• yellow fats and other dairy products even when used in baking, edible oils (although referenced in the report)

• dried fruit, nuts and seeds.

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Value figures throughout this report are at retail selling prices (rsp) unless otherwise stated.

Market sizes at 2014 prices are calculated using Mintel’s ‘food’ deflator.