Home Baking - UK - July 2014

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Excluded
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
Market factors
Health concerns heightened by the high-profile sugar debate
An improvement in consumer spending and confidence
Demographic changes present challenges and opportunities
Companies, brands and innovation
Own-label has a strong position in home baking ingredients
Own-label stole the lead in NPD in 2013
A drop in adspend in 2013
The consumer
Britain remains a nation of bakers…but its popularity has fallen in the last year
Figure 2: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
Baking has strong associations with relaxation
Figure 3: How consumers feel when baking, March 2014
Special offers hold a lot of sway
Figure 4: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
Baking is seen as an important life skill
Figure 5: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
Strong demand for resealable packaging
Figure 6: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
What we think
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Slow It All Down
Trend: Retired for Hire
Trend: Hungry Planet
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
It will become increasingly important for companies to keep baking front of mind for consumers as the economy rebounds
The facts
The implications
Companies which support health-conscious bakers are likely to reap rewards
The facts
The implications
Targeted marketing campaigns can help to enhance the appeal of home baking among the older generation
The facts
The implications
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Most Britons are keen to lose weight
The high-profile sugar debate threatens demand for baking
Potential for alternative sweeteners and savoury items
Consumer spending gathers momentum…
Figure 7: Consumer expenditure and savings, at current prices, 2009-19
…with home baking threatened by less frugal mindsets
The ageing population presents a challenge
Shift towards smaller households hinders the market
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Own-label takes command of home baking NPD
2013 was the turn of Sainsbury’s and Waitrose to up the ante
Figure 8: New product activity in home baking ingredients, own-label vs branded, 2009-14
Figure 9: Top 10 companies, by share of launches in UK home baking market, 2009-14
Dr Oetker leads the brands
Yellow fats look to NPD to target bakers
Vegetarian is the most common claim
Figure 10: Top 10 product claims in new launches in the home baking market, 2009-14
A jump in Halloween launches in the home baking market in 2013
Limited products with convenient packaging
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
The home baking ‘bubble’ has burst
Figure 11: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
The future
Figure 12: UK retail value sales of the home baking market, 2009-19
Factors used in the forecast
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Eggs take the lion’s share of sales
Figure 13: Share of UK retail sales in the home baking market, by segment, 2014 (est)
Figure 14: UK retail value sales in the home baking market, by segment, 2009-19
Challenging times for the sugar market
Flour and baking mixes fall from favour
Figure 15: UK retail value sales in the baking mixes, pastry and suet segment, by sub-segment, 2011-14
Cake coverings and culinary aids are the only segment to defy the downturn
Figure 16: UK retail value sales in the cake decorating, cake coverings, culinary aids and cooking chocolate segment, by sub-segment, 2011-14
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Whitworths is the rising star in sugar
Figure 17: Brand shares in UK retail sales of sugar, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
A strong performance from Canderel
Figure 18: Brand shares in UK retail sales of artificial sweetener, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
A decline in flour and baking mixes
Figure 19: Brand shares in UK retail sales of flour and dry baking mixes, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Big gains for own-label in cake coverings, decorations and culinary aids
Figure 20: Brand shares in UK retail sales of cake coverings, decorations and culinary aids, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Dr Oetker
Background
Product range
Product innovation
Marketing and promotion
General Mills
Background
Product range
Product innovation
Marketing and promotion
Kerry Foods
Background
Product range
Product innovation
Marketing and promotion
Premier Foods
Background
Product range
The Silver Spoon Company
Background
Product range
Product innovation
Marketing and promotion
Symington’s
Background
Product range
Product innovation
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
A drop in adspend in 2013
Figure 21: Topline advertising expenditure in the UK home baking market, by sub-segment, 2010-14
Dr Oetker took the lead in 2013
Figure 22: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on home baking*, by top 10 advertisers, 2010-14
Waitrose and Sainsbury’s are the top-spending supermarkets
Sugar brands cut back
New TV ad campaign for Happy Eggs
General Mills stepped up advertising in 2013
THE CONSUMER – HOME BAKING HABITS
Key points
Britain is a nation of bakers…
Figure 23: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
…but there has been a decline in baking since summer 2013
Figure 24: Frequency of baking at home, June 2013 and March 2014
Baking enjoys strong family appeal
Figure 25: Consumers baking partly from scratch and totally from scratch at least once a week, by gender and age, March 2014
Cakes are the go-to baking creations
Figure 26: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
Generational divide in baking habits
Figure 27: Consumers who have baked batters, sweet puddings, sweet pies and tarts and savoury pies/tarts/pastries from scratch in the last 12 months, by age, March 2014
Figure 28: Consumers who have baked biscuits/cookies, brownies, muffins or pizza bases in the last 12 months, by age, March 2014
Bakers have a narrow repertoire
Figure 29: Repertoire of items baked totally and partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
THE CONSUMER – FEELINGS ASSOCIATED WITH HOME BAKING
Key points
Baking has strong associations with relaxation
Figure 30: How consumers feel when baking, March 2014
Under-35s are most adventurous
Figure 31: Consumers who feel proud, adventurous, confident and economical when baking, by age, March 2014
THE CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS FOR BAKING MIXES, CAKE COVERINGS OR DECORATIONS
Key analysis
Special offers hold a lot of sway
Figure 32: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
Bakers opt for tried and tested products
Notable interest in high-quality ingredients
A sizeable minority look for better-for-you options
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOME BAKING
Key points
Baking is seen as an important life skill
Figure 33: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
Opportunities to help bakers develop their skills
Experimentation is popular
Interest in single-serve cake mixes from one in four bakers
THE CONSUMER – FURTHER ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOME BAKING
Key points
Strong demand for resealable packaging
Figure 34: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
The health agenda limits baking for one in three
Interest in better-for-you ingredients
Are natural sweeteners an answer to sugar concerns in baking?
Baking with vegetables and high-protein recipes sparks interest
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales within the home baking, 2014-19
APPENDIX – SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of eggs, 2014-19
Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of sugar and sweeteners, 2014-19
Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of flour, yeast, baking mixes, pastry and suet, 2014-19
Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of cake coverings, decorations, culinary aids and cooking chocolate, 2014-19
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – HOME BAKING HABITS
Figure 40: Frequency of baking at home, March 2014
Figure 41: Items baked at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
Figure 42: Repertoire of items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
Figure 43: Repertoire of items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, March 2014
Figure 44: Frequency of baking at home – Bake partly from scratch (using ready-prepared pastry, cake mix or bread mix), by demographics, March 2014
Figure 45: Frequency of baking at home – Bake totally from scratch (using individual raw ingredients), by demographics, March 2014
Figure 46: Most popular items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 47: Next most popular items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 48: Most popular items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 49: Next most popular items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 50: Repertoire of items baked totally from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 51: Repertoire of items baked partly from scratch at home in the last 12 months, by demographics, March 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – FEELINGS ASSOCIATED WITH HOME BAKING
Figure 52: Feelings associated with home baking, March 2014
Figure 53: Most popular feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 54: Next most popular feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 55: Other feelings associated with home baking, by demographics, March 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS FOR BAKING MIXES, CAKE COVERINGS OR DECORATIONS
Figure 56: Choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, March 2014
Figure 57: Most popular choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 58: Next most popular choice factors for baking mixes, cake coverings or decorations, by demographics, March 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOME BAKING
Figure 59: Attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
Figure 60: Most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 61: Next most popular attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 62: Other attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – FURTHER ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOME BAKING
Figure 63: Further attitudes towards home baking, March 2014
Figure 64: Most popular further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 65: Next most popular further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014
Figure 66: Other further attitudes towards home baking, by demographics, March 2014