Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- Spending and expected participation levels
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Planned purchases
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Shopping timeframe
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Preferred retailers
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Influencers
- What you want to know
- What we see
- What consumers want from retailers
- What you want to know
- What we see
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Over $80 billion strong
- Clothes and electronics comprise majority of budgets
- Youth population stagnates
- Think single
- Favorable economic climate
- Education not a nominal expense
Market Size
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- Status quo in 2018
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- Figure 1: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, in current dollars, 2013-18
- Highest estimated college spending on record
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- Figure 2: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, in current dollars, 2013-18
Market Breakdown
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- Expectations decline for college spending per household
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- Figure 3: Consumers' expected back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college average spending per household, in current dollars, 2013-18
- Clothing and electronics are the biggest spending categories
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- Figure 4: Expected back-to-school (K-12) household share of spend, by category, 2018
- Figure 5: Expected back-to-college household share of spend, by category, 2018
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- Figure 6: Consumers' expected back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending per household, by primary category, in current dollars, 2018
Market Factors
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- The population
- Fewer children, fewer BTS needs
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- Figure 7: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
- A different picture for multicultural households
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- Figure 8: Share of households with related children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
- A shrinking school-aged kid population
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- Figure 9: Population school-aged children, by age, 2013-23
- Changing family dynamics
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- Figure 10: Living arrangements of children under age 18, 2008 and 2018
- The economy
- Macroeconomic factors bode well for upcoming BTS season
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- Figure 11: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-November 2018
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- Figure 12: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2007-17
- Education
- Kids are expensive
- College enrollment on the decline
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- Figure 13: Share of school enrollment of the population 3 years old and over, by level, 2017
- More students studying online
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Standing out in the inbox
- Working around the Amazon effect
- Clambering for student dollars
- iGens and Millennial parents as shoppers = a digital future
What’s Happening?
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- Email continues to pay dividends
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- Figure 14: Back-to-school top volume email campaigns, Target and Macy’s, June-September 2018
- Figure 15: Back-to-school top performing email campaigns, Amazon, Panera, Nike, June-September 2018
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- Figure 16: Back-to-school FedEx email, August 2018
- Competing against Amazon
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- Figure 17: Back-to-school top volume direct mail campaigns, Jet.com and Walmart, July–August 2018
- Catering to college students
- Electronics
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- Figure 18: Back-to-school top volume direct mail campaign, Dell, July 2018
- Figure 19: Back-to-school telecom campaigns, Sprint and AT&T, July-August 2018
- Furnishings
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- Figure 20: Walmart’s 3-D virtual shopping tour, screen shot, June 2018
- Clothing
What’s Next?
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- Technology and “modern” convenience will shape the future
- Trending attitudes toward online shopping
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- Figure 21: Attitudes toward online shopping, by generation, March 2018
- Shopping and sharing via social media
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- Figure 22: Attitudes toward social media for online shopping, by generation, September 2018
- Will impulse shoppers buy online?
- What iGens consider and seek when shopping
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- Figure 23: iGeneration purchase preferences, by age, December 2017
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Positive signs for 2019-20 school year
- More time to shop
- Big three capture share of shopping occasions
- Clothes, shoes, supplies, check!
- Schools are a growing influencer
- Parents want fun and convenience; college kids want to save a buck
Shopping Participation
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- Key highlights
- Participation levels expected to be higher in 2019
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- Figure 24: Shopping participation – Parents versus college students, November 2018
- Parents
- Dads are shopping too
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- Figure 25: Shopping participation – Parents, November 2018
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- Figure 26: Shopping participation – Parents, by gender, November 2018
- College students
- More students planning to shop
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- Figure 27: Shopping participation – College students, October 2017-November 2018
- Most college students live at home while in school
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- Figure 28: College student living arrangements, by shopping participation in 2018-19, November 2018
Shopping Timeframe
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- Key highlights
- Getting a jump start
- Parents
- Over 70% start at least three weeks out
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- Figure 29: Shopping timeframe – Parents, November 2018
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- Figure 30: Shopping timeframe - parents, by number of children under 18 in household, November 2018
- In and out in one trip
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- Figure 31: Attitudes toward timing of shopping - Parents, by household income, November 2018
- College students
- Majority do most of their shopping before school begins
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- Figure 32: Attitudes toward timing of shopping – College students, by gender, November 2018
- The impact of Amazon Prime Day
Retailers Shopped
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- Key highlights
- “Big three” continue to dominate; ecommerce grows
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- Figure 33: Top three retailers shopped and method of shopping – parents versus college students, November 2018
- Parents
- Walmart is winning
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- Figure 34: Retailers shopped – Parents, November 2018
- Dads shop a little differently than moms
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- Figure 35: Retailers shopped – Parents, by gender, November 2018
- Lower-income consumers more allegiant to Walmart, dollar stores
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- Figure 36: Retailers shopped – Parents, by household income, November 2018
- Hispanic and Black non-Hispanic shoppers also seek value
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- Figure 37: Retailers shopped – Parents, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2018
- College students
- Amazon declines the most YOY as students favor physical stores
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- Figure 38: Retailers shopped – College students, November 2018
Items to Purchase
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- Key highlights
- Clothing, accessories, supplies top shopping lists
- Parents
- All-in-one supply kits add convenience for some; reduces fun for others
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- Figure 39: Items to purchase – Parents, November 2018
- Young boys may be content with last year’s styles
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- Figure 40: Clothing and footwear to purchase – Parents, by gender by age of child, November 2018
- Moms take the reins during BTS
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- Figure 41: Items to purchase – Parents, by gender and marital status, November 2018
- Invested in their children’s success
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward back-to-school shopping – Parents, by household income and marital status, November 2018
- College students
- Three quarters plan to prioritize school supplies
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- Figure 43: Items to purchase – College students, November 2018
- Electronics are a higher priority
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- Figure 44: Electronics to purchase – College students, November 2018
- Year in school as well as where students live impacts what they buy
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- Figure 45: Items to purchase – College students, by shopping participation, November 2018
- Consider all living situations
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- Figure 46: College student living arrangements, by items to purchase, November 2018
Shopping Influencers
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- Key highlights
- Deals, recommendations and familiarity sway shopping decisions
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- Figure 47: Influence of recommendations and media/advertising – parents versus college students, November 2018
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- Figure 48: Shopping influencers – Parents versus college students, November 2018
- Parents
- Deal-based incentives have universal appeal
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- Figure 49: Influence of promotions/coupons and brand familiarity – Parents, by household income, November 2018
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- Figure 50: Shopping influencers – Parents, by gender, November 2018
- Kids themselves have tremendous pull
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- Figure 51: Influence of children – Parents, by gender and by age, November 2018
- College students
- School recommendations, social media and some advertising see gains
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- Figure 52: Shopping influencers – College students, 2018 versus 2019, October 2017 and November 2018
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- Figure 53: Shopping influencers – College students, by gender, November 2018
- Social media no longer optional
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- Figure 54: Social media usage – College students, November 2018
Attitudes and Behaviors toward Back-to-School Shopping
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- Key highlights
- Retailers can enhance positive feelings associated with BTS
- Parents
- More fun, less stress
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- Figure 55: Attitudes related to enjoyment of back-to-school shopping – parents, by gender and generation, November 2018
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- Figure 56: Sources of stress – Parents, by household income and number of children in the household, November 2018
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- Figure 57: Attitudes toward kids’ empowerment, by attitudes toward back-to-school shopping - parents, November 2018
- Bonding time
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- Figure 58: How parents view back-to-school shopping, by generation and gender and marital status, November 2018
- College students
- Nearly half buy their own items
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- Figure 59: Financial responsibility for back-to-school needs – college students, November 2018
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- Figure 60: Financial responsibility for back-to-school needs, by select shopping behaviors – college students, November 2018
- Recycling tendencies may pose a threat
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- Figure 61: Attitudes and behaviors toward recycling – College students, by gender, November 2018
Desired Improvements
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- Key highlights
- Convenience for parents, value/savings for students
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- Figure 62: Top five desired improvements, parents versus college students, November 2018
- Parents
- Little conveniences go a long way with parents
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- Figure 63: Desired improvements – Parents, November 2018
- Working parents value convenience more than stay-at-home parents do
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- Figure 64: Select desired improvements – Parents, by employment status of parent, November 2018
- Dads keenly interested in anything that helps them shop for their kids
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- Figure 65: Select desired improvements – Parents, by gender, November 2018
- Three quarters of parents can be reached with just five improvements
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- Figure 66: TURF analysis – Parents’ desired improvements, November 2018
- College students
- Savings and shortcuts
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- Figure 67: Desired improvements – College students, November 2018
- Women seek discounts and convenience while men seek assistance
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- Figure 68: Select desired improvements – College students, by gender, November 2018
- Top two value-oriented improvements would reach nearly three quarters of students
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- Figure 69: TURF analysis – College students’ desired improvements, November 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- TURF analysis methodology
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 70: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, in current dollars, 2013-18
- Figure 71: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2013-18
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- Figure 72: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, by segment, in current dollars, 2013-18
- Figure 73: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, by segment, in current dollars, 2016 and 2018
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- Figure 74: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) spending, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2013-18
- Figure 75: Consumers' planned back-to-college spending, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2013-18
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- Figure 76: Consumers' expected back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending per household, by category, in current dollars, 2018
- Figure 77: School enrollment of the population 3 years old and over, by level, October 2008-17
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- Figure 78: Enrollment Status of the Population 3 Years and Over, by age and level, October 2017
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 79: Back-to-school email read rate and volume, by day of week, June-September 2018
- Figure 80: Back-to-school share of email volume, by retailer, June-September 2018
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- Figure 81: Back-to-school Verizon direct mail, July 2018
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 82: Table – TURF analysis – Parents’ desired improvements, November 2018
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- Figure 83: TURF analysis – college students’ desired improvements, November 2018
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