Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Dairy milk declines
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
- Some dairy milk drinkers are making a switch
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- Figure 2: non-dairy milk associations, by those buying dairy milk the same/less and non-dairy more, June 2018
- Too many milks?
- The opportunities
- Premium products can bring non-dairy consumers back to the dairy market
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- Figure 3: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
- iGens drive positive associations around non-dairy milk
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- Figure 4: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
- “Other” milks quickly gain market share
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- Figure 5: Total US retail market share of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Non-dairy milk evolves with consumer preferences
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Stark differences in dairy and non-dairy milk sales
- Dairy producers struggle to turn a profit
- Trendiness of plant-based eating/drinking benefits non-dairy milk
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dairy milk faces continued losses
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
- Bright future for non-dairy milk
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Diary quickly losing market share in the total milk market
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- Figure 10: Dairy and non-dairy milk market of total milk market, 2013-23
- Figure 11: Dairy milk market share by segment, 2018
- Almond milk commands the market but watch for the “others”
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 13: Total US retail market share of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Perspective
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- Cereal falls out of fashion
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- Figure 14: Total sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
- Veganism gets easier?
- Restaurants cut dairy milk from the menu
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- Figure 15: Change in incidence and penetration of dairy milk on menus, by segment, Q1 2015 - Q1 2018
- Figure 16: Top 15 most common uses of non-dairy milk in other beverages, Q1 2018
Market Factors
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- Interest in digestive health detrimental for dairy milk
- Increased production lowers dairy milk price
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- Figure 17: Average price of milk (gallon)*, January 2008-June 2018
- Trade wars could cause dairy producers even more stress
- The battle for public perception
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- Figure 18: YouTube video “The Ingredient List: Real Dairy Milk vs. Flavored Almond Milk - Milk Life TV Commercial Ad”
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Growth occurring among smaller milk companies
- Dairy needs to look up for growth
- New players carve out a space in the non-dairy market
Company and Brand Sales of Dairy and Non-dairy Milk
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- Losses across most dairy milk companies
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Smaller non-dairy brands experience strongest growth
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Working?
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- Lactose-free milks thrive while regular milk falters
- Chocolate milk gains popularity as a post-workout beverage
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- Figure 21: dairy milk uses, by those buying non-dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
- Non-dairy milk becomes super-functional and cuts the sugar
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- Figure 22: Non-dairy milk launches, % of launches with select claims, 2014-18*
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- Figure 23: Non-dairy milk launches, % of launches with low/reduced sugar claims, 2014-18*
- Figure 24: Average grams of sugar per 100ml, non-dairy milks, 2014-18*
What’s Struggling?
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- HH declines in dairy milk consumption
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- Figure 25: average HH number of glasses of dairy milk consumed per day, among dairy milk buyers, 2013-18
- The non-dairy milk refrigerator gets crowded
What’s Next?
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- Grass-fed milk creates a premium tier within the dairy milk market
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- Figure 26: % of dairy milk launches with grass-fed claim, 2014-18
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- Figure 27: grass-fed milk purchase intent, T2B 5-pt scale, by consumer segmentation
- Figure 28: Grass-fed vs non-grass-fed milk perception
- Dairy milk due for a packaging update
- Meet the new wave of non-dairy milks
- Non-dairy milks/brands to watch
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Dairy milk has high purchase incidence but lacks positive associations
- Some consumers are dropping dairy milk because of digestion concerns
- iGens will drive non-dairy milk forward
- Premium functional products are an opportunity for both dairy and non-dairy milks
Dairy and Non-dairy Milk Purchases
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- Dairy milk is still a HH staple
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- Figure 29: Dairy milk purchases, June 2018
- Young affluent consumers purchase premium dairy milks
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- Figure 30: Dairy milk purchases, by generation and age/income, June 2018
- Almond dominates non-dairy milk market
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- Figure 31: Non-dairy milk purchases, June 2018
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- Figure 32: Repertoire analysis, non-dairy milks purchased, June 2018
- Parents are key dairy milk buyers
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- Figure 33: milk purchases, by Millennial parent breaks, June 2018
Change in Milk Purchases and Switching Behavior Deep Dive
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- Reported increase in non-dairy milk purchases
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- Figure 34: Change in milk purchases, dairy and non-dairy milk, June 2018
- Dairy milk buyers are making a switch
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- Figure 35: Changes in non-dairy milk purchases, among those buying dairy milk more/less, June 2018
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- Figure 36: Changes in dairy milk purchases, among those buying non-dairy milk more/less, June 2018
- Why dairy milk drinkers are switching to non-dairy
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- Figure 37: non-dairy milk associations, by those buying dairy milk the same/less and non-dairy more, June 2018
- Why non-dairy milk drinkers are switching to dairy
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- Figure 38: dairy milk associations, by those buying non-dairy dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
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- Figure 39: dairy milk uses, by those buying non-dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
Dairy and Non-dairy Milk Uses
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- Dairy milk is versatile, but its usage frequency is down
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- Figure 40: Milk uses, dairy and non-dairy milk, June 2018
- iGens use non-dairy milk in a variety of applications
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- Figure 41: Milk uses, dairy and non-dairy milk, by generation, June 2018
Milk Associations
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- Non-dairy milk captures positive associations
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- Figure 42: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, among buyers, June 2018
- iGens focus on the healthy benefits of non-dairy milk
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- Figure 43: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
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- Figure 44: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
Milk Important Factors
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- Dairy milk can attract non-dairy buyers via functional, premium claims
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- Figure 45: Milk important factors, by milk type buyers, June 2018
Milk Innovation Interest
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- The dairy milk buyer’s paradox
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- Figure 46: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
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- Figure 47: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
- Millennial parents on the lookout for functional milks
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- Figure 48: Milk innovation interest, by Millennial parent breaks, June 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Purchase Intelligence
- Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 58: MULO sales of refrigerated dairy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 59: MULO sales of shelf stable dairy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 60: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 61: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 62: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 63: MULO sales of other non-dairy, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Milk type buyers’ demographic profiles
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- Figure 64: Milk type buyers’ demographic profiles, indexed against all consumers
- Figure 65: Correspondence analysis, milk and non-dairy milk, usage occasions, June 2018
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- Figure 66: Correspondence analysis, dairy and non-dairy milk associations, by milk type, June 2018
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