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Dairy and Non-dairy Milk - US - September 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Dairy milk declines
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Some dairy milk drinkers are making a switch
Figure 2: non-dairy milk associations, by those buying dairy milk the same/less and non-dairy more, June 2018
Too many milks?
The opportunities
Premium products can bring non-dairy consumers back to the dairy market
Figure 3: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
iGens drive positive associations around non-dairy milk
Figure 4: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
“Other” milks quickly gain market share
Figure 5: Total US retail market share of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Non-dairy milk evolves with consumer preferences
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Stark differences in dairy and non-dairy milk sales
Dairy producers struggle to turn a profit
Trendiness of plant-based eating/drinking benefits non-dairy milk
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Dairy milk faces continued losses
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Bright future for non-dairy milk
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Diary quickly losing market share in the total milk market
Figure 10: Dairy and non-dairy milk market of total milk market, 2013-23
Figure 11: Dairy milk market share by segment, 2018
Almond milk commands the market but watch for the “others”
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 13: Total US retail market share of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Cereal falls out of fashion
Figure 14: Total sales and fan chart forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2012-22
Veganism gets easier?
Restaurants cut dairy milk from the menu
Figure 15: Change in incidence and penetration of dairy milk on menus, by segment, Q1 2015 - Q1 2018
Figure 16: Top 15 most common uses of non-dairy milk in other beverages, Q1 2018
MARKET FACTORS 
Interest in digestive health detrimental for dairy milk
Increased production lowers dairy milk price
Figure 17: Average price of milk (gallon)*, January 2008-June 2018
Trade wars could cause dairy producers even more stress
The battle for public perception
Figure 18: YouTube video “The Ingredient List: Real Dairy Milk vs. Flavored Almond Milk - Milk Life TV Commercial Ad”
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Growth occurring among smaller milk companies
Dairy needs to look up for growth
New players carve out a space in the non-dairy market
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF DAIRY AND NON-DAIRY MILK
Losses across most dairy milk companies
Figure 19: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Smaller non-dairy brands experience strongest growth
Figure 20: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
WHAT’S WORKING?
Lactose-free milks thrive while regular milk falters
Chocolate milk gains popularity as a post-workout beverage
Figure 21: dairy milk uses, by those buying non-dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
Non-dairy milk becomes super-functional and cuts the sugar
Figure 22: Non-dairy milk launches, % of launches with select claims, 2014-18*
Figure 23: Non-dairy milk launches, % of launches with low/reduced sugar claims, 2014-18*
Figure 24: Average grams of sugar per 100ml, non-dairy milks, 2014-18*
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
HH declines in dairy milk consumption
Figure 25: average HH number of glasses of dairy milk consumed per day, among dairy milk buyers, 2013-18
The non-dairy milk refrigerator gets crowded
WHAT’S NEXT?
Grass-fed milk creates a premium tier within the dairy milk market
Figure 26: % of dairy milk launches with grass-fed claim, 2014-18
Figure 27: grass-fed milk purchase intent, T2B 5-pt scale, by consumer segmentation
Figure 28: Grass-fed vs non-grass-fed milk perception
Dairy milk due for a packaging update
Meet the new wave of non-dairy milks
Non-dairy milks/brands to watch
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Dairy milk has high purchase incidence but lacks positive associations
Some consumers are dropping dairy milk because of digestion concerns
iGens will drive non-dairy milk forward
Premium functional products are an opportunity for both dairy and non-dairy milks
DAIRY AND NON-DAIRY MILK PURCHASES
Dairy milk is still a HH staple
Figure 29: Dairy milk purchases, June 2018
Young affluent consumers purchase premium dairy milks
Figure 30: Dairy milk purchases, by generation and age/income, June 2018
Almond dominates non-dairy milk market
Figure 31: Non-dairy milk purchases, June 2018
Figure 32: Repertoire analysis, non-dairy milks purchased, June 2018
Parents are key dairy milk buyers
Figure 33: milk purchases, by Millennial parent breaks, June 2018
CHANGE IN MILK PURCHASES AND SWITCHING BEHAVIOR DEEP DIVE
Reported increase in non-dairy milk purchases
Figure 34: Change in milk purchases, dairy and non-dairy milk, June 2018
Dairy milk buyers are making a switch
Figure 35: Changes in non-dairy milk purchases, among those buying dairy milk more/less, June 2018
Figure 36: Changes in dairy milk purchases, among those buying non-dairy milk more/less, June 2018
Why dairy milk drinkers are switching to non-dairy
Figure 37: non-dairy milk associations, by those buying dairy milk the same/less and non-dairy more, June 2018
Why non-dairy milk drinkers are switching to dairy
Figure 38: dairy milk associations, by those buying non-dairy dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
Figure 39: dairy milk uses, by those buying non-dairy milk the same/less and dairy more, June 2018
DAIRY AND NON-DAIRY MILK USES
Dairy milk is versatile, but its usage frequency is down
Figure 40: Milk uses, dairy and non-dairy milk, June 2018
iGens use non-dairy milk in a variety of applications
Figure 41: Milk uses, dairy and non-dairy milk, by generation, June 2018
MILK ASSOCIATIONS
Non-dairy milk captures positive associations
Figure 42: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, among buyers, June 2018
iGens focus on the healthy benefits of non-dairy milk
Figure 43: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
Figure 44: Milk associations, dairy and non-dairy milk, health associations, among buyers, by generation June 2018
MILK IMPORTANT FACTORS
Dairy milk can attract non-dairy buyers via functional, premium claims
Figure 45: Milk important factors, by milk type buyers, June 2018
MILK INNOVATION INTEREST
The dairy milk buyer’s paradox
Figure 46: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
Figure 47: Milk innovation interest, by milk type buyers, June 2018
Millennial parents on the lookout for functional milks
Figure 48: Milk innovation interest, by Millennial parent breaks, June 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Mintel Menu Insights
Purchase Intelligence
Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 58: MULO sales of refrigerated dairy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 59: MULO sales of shelf stable dairy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 60: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 61: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 62: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 63: MULO sales of other non-dairy, by leading companies and brand, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Milk type buyers’ demographic profiles
Figure 64: Milk type buyers’ demographic profiles, indexed against all consumers
Figure 65: Correspondence analysis, milk and non-dairy milk, usage occasions, June 2018
Figure 66: Correspondence analysis, dairy and non-dairy milk associations, by milk type, June 2018

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