Table of Contents
Overview
-
- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
-
- America today
- America in 2017
- The people
- The economy
- The consumer
- Consumers are positive about their financial situations
-
- Figure 1: Perceptions of financial health, 2013-17
- Most are optimistic about the future of their finances
-
- Figure 2: Postelection and post-inauguration attitudes toward financial situations, November 2016 and February 2017
- Consumers less likely to feel they’re “spending more”
-
- Figure 3: Perceived change in spending – Spending more, by category, difference 2016-17
- Consumers still splurge on dining – but may be cutting back
-
- Figure 4: Where extra money is spent, January 2017
- Dissatisfaction across the middle class
-
- Figure 5: Middle-class values, January 2017
- Americans hyperaware of the country’s pressing issues
-
- Figure 6: Concerns for the country, January 2017
- What it means
America Today – What Will Impact 2017
-
- New immigration policies may shift the labor landscape
- Expectations for international trade may change
- Growing gap between college- and high school-educated Americans
- Where jobs leave, opioids move in
- Updated healthcare plan on shaky ground
- Americans become politically reactive
America Today – The People
-
- What you need to know
- US population tops 326 million
-
- Figure 7: US population share by region, 2015
- Millennials make up the largest share of US population
-
- Figure 8: US population, by generation, 2017
- Younger age groups are more diverse
-
- Figure 9: Distribution of population, by age and race/Hispanic origin, 2016
- Refugee population remains minimal in the US
-
- Figure 10: Refugee arrivals: Fiscal Years 1990-2015
- Birthrate expected to remain flat
-
- Figure 11: Number of births (in thousands) and fertility rate, 2005-15
- Improving birth rates for moms aged 35+
-
- Figure 12: Birthrates, by age of mother, 1990-2013
- Single households grow in share
-
- Figure 13: Family and nonfamily households as a percentage of total households, 2006-16
America Today – The Economy
-
- What you need to know
- Record-breaking economic expansion
-
- Figure 14: GDP change from previous period and personal consumption expenditures, Q1 2007-Q4 2016
- Stock market rallies postelection but falls with healthcare bill failure
-
- Figure 15: Daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, March 2012-February 2017
- Interest rates: nowhere to go but up
- Consumer confidence remains high amid political uncertainty
-
- Figure 16: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-March (preliminary results) 2017
- Gas prices anticipated to rise as production slows
-
- Figure 17: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-February 2017
- Median household income gets a boost
-
- Figure 18: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2000-15
- Unemployment remains low
-
- Figure 19: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-January 2017
- DPI growth slows
-
- Figure 20: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2007-December 2016
America Today – The Market
-
- What you need to know
- Total US consumer expenditures grow 3.3%
- Housing
- Healthcare
- Transportation
-
- Figure 21: Total US market value, by category ($ billions), 2016
- Figure 22: Percentage change in US market value, by category, 2015-16
- Outlook for 2020
- Winners in the next five years
- Facing challenges in the next five years
-
- Figure 23: Total US best- and worst-case forecast market value at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 24: Forecast growth rate of fastest- and slowest-growing categories, 2016-21
Category Review – In-Home Food
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Healthful eating and a bit of indulgence drive retail food sales
-
- Figure 25: Total US in-home foods market value, 2011-16
- Slow, steady growth to continue
-
- Figure 26: Best- and worst-case forecast of in-home food market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Facilitating healthful eating
- Enabling snacking
- Providing small indulgences
- Cold cereal lacks convenience, satiety
- Shelf-stable vegetables overshadowed by fresh
- Packaging innovation: greater transparency and functionality
- Power to the plants
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 27: Perceived change in spend on in-home food, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Dining Out
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Restaurants can’t rely on what’s worked in the past
-
- Figure 28: Total US dining out market value, 2011-16
- The “fast fine” segment is the wave of the future
-
- Figure 29: Best- and worst-case forecast of dining out market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- The lines that once divided the restaurant industry are becoming blurred
- Technology will continue to be a factor shifting the restaurant experience
- Growth and expansion of existing concepts will no longer be in a straightforward path
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 30: Perceived change in spend on dining out, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Alcoholic Drinks (in home)
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Dollar sales of alcoholic drinks at home grew 18% from 2011-16
-
- Figure 31: Total US alcoholic drinks (in home) market value, 2011-16
- Strong positive sales forecast for 2016-21
-
- Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecast of alcoholic drinks (in home) market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Nutritional transparency and highlighting health benefits
- Smaller formats may help inspire trial
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 33: Perceived change in spend on alcoholic drinks (in home), January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Alcoholic Drinks (out of home)
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- On-premise sales pass the $100 billion mark
-
- Figure 34: Total US alcoholic drinks (out of home) market value, 2011-16
- Restaurants benefit from the growing alcohol market
-
- Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecast of alcoholic drinks (out of home) market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Sparkling wines shine in foodservice
- Fresh ingredients are pushing out premade mixers
- A unique experience sets a bar apart
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 36: Perceived change in spend on alcoholic drinks (out of home), January 2013-17
-
- Figure 37: Perceived change in spend on alcoholic drinks (out of home), by household income, January 2017
- Key consumer findings
-
- Figure 38: Alcoholic drinks (out of home) – New drink trial motivators, February 2016
Category Review – Non-Alcoholic Drinks
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Dollar sales of non-alcoholic drinks grew 27% from 2011-16
-
- Figure 39: Total US non-alcoholic drinks market value, 2011-16
- Non-alcoholic beverages are forecast to grow by 11% from 2016-21
-
- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast of non-alcoholic drinks market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Consumers look for added benefits
- Blurring category lines will help both strong and struggling drink categories
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 41: Perceived change in spend on non-alcoholic drinks, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Beauty and Personal Care
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- BPC category continues to experience steady growth
-
- Figure 42: Total US beauty and personal care market value, 2011-16
- Slow but steady growth anticipated through 2021
-
- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast of beauty and personal care market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Color cosmetics category sees a lift in light of current trends
- Hotter than average summer propels sun care sales
- Ethical claims reach younger generations
- Natural offerings increasingly important
- Nail color and care struggles continue
- Consumers still apathetic toward fragrances category
- Customizable products are in demand
- Themes of inclusivity and celebrating diversity become more prevalent
- Interactive shopping experiences engage younger shoppers
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 44: Perceived change in spend on beauty and personal care, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – OTC and Pharmaceuticals
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- OTC and pharmaceutical market trajectory continues upward
-
- Figure 45: Total US OTC and pharmaceuticals market value, 2011-16
- Growth in the OTC and pharmaceuticals market will persist
-
- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast of OTCs and pharmaceuticals market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Focus on families; engage with natural remedies
- Incontinence products undergo makeover; sales soar
- Allergy switch from Rx-to-OTC boosts market; shelf becoming increasingly crowded
- Gummies are a mainstay in VMS
- New external analgesic launches provide a boost to mature analgesics market
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 47: Perceived change in spend on OTCs and pharmaceuticals, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Household Care
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Innovation edges up growth in mature household category
-
- Figure 48: Total US household care market value, 2011-16
- Convenience and safety likely to influence future growth
-
- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecast of household care market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Value and extended usage drive spending on paper products
- Innovative laundry formats appeal to a need for convenience, personalization
- Consumers demand functionality, convenience from household surface cleaners
- Themes of changing household dynamics permeate category
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 50: Perceived change in spend on household care, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Clothing, Footwear, and Accessories
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Value continues to rise despite a softening market
-
- Figure 51: Total US clothing, footwear, and accessories market value, 2011-16
- Future lies in retailers’ abilities to cater to modern shoppers
-
- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast of clothing, footwear, and accessories market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Apparel sales drag down the category
- Menswear is currently outperforming womenswear
- One bright spot in the apparel market is fitness clothing
- Footwear moves forward at steady pace
- Soft sales seen in accessories
- Little change for children’s apparel
- Amazon challenges competitors
- What’s next? It’s all about technology.
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 53: Perceived change in spend on clothing, footwear, and accessories, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Technology and Communications
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Sales growth roughly at pace with inflation
-
- Figure 54: Total US technology and communications market value, 2011-16
- Slow growth a victory
-
- Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecast of technology and communications market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Tablets struggling
- Apple’s triumph in smartphones continues
- Wearable leaders’ sales soften
- Nest, Echo shine
- Mobile service leaders flourish
- Smart home, new wearables fill sales gap from older categories
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 56: Perceived change in spend on technology and communications, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Vacations and Tourism
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- US travel market continues to experience strong growth
-
- Figure 57: Total US vacations and tourism market value, 2011-16
- Future growth no longer driven by low gas prices
-
- Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast of vacations and tourism market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Airline industry thrives
- Airline sites still capture large share of booking traffic
- Future of international travel is uncertain
- Sharing sector grows
- Agents may find room for growth
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 59: Perceived change in spend on vacations, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Leisure and Entertainment
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Consumers continue to treat themselves with leisure and entertainment
-
- Figure 60: Total US leisure and entertainment market value, 2011-16
- Spending forecast to grow more slowly through 2021
-
- Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecast of leisure and entertainment market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Incorporating technology to drive interest
- Casinos seek to attract younger consumers
- What’s a boon for some sectors leads to bust in others
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 62: Perceived change in spend on leisure and entertainment, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings in leisure and entertainment
Category Review – Home and Garden
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Home and garden market maintains slow, steady growth
-
- Figure 63: Total US home and garden market value, 2011-16
- Home and garden poised for steady growth
-
- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecast of home and garden market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Innovation and premiumization boost major household appliances
- Beverage making appliances struggle, tempering small kitchen appliance growth
- Relaxing space, healthy living ambitions benefit lawn and garden market
- Smaller, multifunctional products poised for growth
- The pursuit of hygge in America
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 65: Perceived change in spend on home and garden, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Transportation
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Low fuel prices saving Americans billions of dollars
-
- Figure 66: Total US transportation market value, 2011-16
- Uncertainty looms over future of transportation
-
- Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecast of transportation market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- The future remains uncertain
- Consumers demand safety
- Connectivity improves
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 68: Perceived change in spending on transportation, January 2015-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Personal Finance
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Consumer expenditures rise along with financial services revenue
-
- Figure 69: Total US personal finance market value, 2011-16
- Industry forecast for moderate growth
-
- Figure 70: Best- and worst-case forecast of personal finance market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Financial services gain trust
- Increased usage of payment technologies
- Wearable tech options to expand
- Advancements in digital assistants will surely continue
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Key consumer findings
-
- Figure 71: Investable assets, by generation, November 2016
-
- Figure 72: Self-described grade on financial knowledge, by gender, March 2016
-
- Figure 73: Insurance ownership, by marital status, January 2016
Category Review – Housing
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Housing expenditures continue stable growth
-
- Figure 74: Total US housing market value, 2011-16
- Future expenditures may be challenged by uncertainty
-
- Figure 75: Best- and worst-case forecast of housing market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Housing market predicted to remain solid in 2017
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Healthcare and Optical Goods
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Increased spending driven by coverage, population, and economy
-
- Figure 76: Total US healthcare market value, 2011-16
- ACA’s unknown fate yields future uncertainty
-
- Figure 77: Best- and worst-case forecast of healthcare market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Telehealth improving cost and convenience
- Hospital stays on the decline
- Automation to streamline healthcare
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Miscellaneous
-
- What you need to know
- What we think
- Miscellaneous spending growth driven by services
-
- Figure 78: Total US market value of miscellaneous spending, 2011-16
- Market forecast for relatively stronger gains over the next five years
-
- Figure 79: Best- and worst-case forecast of miscellaneous spending market value, at current prices, 2011-21
- What it means
- Growth in pet spending continues
- Americans are kicking the habit – or refraining from starting one
- Moderate growth expected for education services
- Traditional news media faces challenges
- Last year’s predictions and outcomes
- Changing consumer spending habits
-
- Figure 80: Spending vs saving and having extra money, January 2013-17
- Key consumer findings
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
-
- 2017 consumer trends to watch
- Financial situations remain strong, overall
- Strain on the middle class is about more than just money
- A majority are concerned with the issues America faces
The Consumer – Trends for 2017
-
- Trend: The Echo Chamber of Secrets
-
- Figure 81: Attitudes toward trends – Echo Chamber of Secrets, January 2017
- Trend observation: Bar Roulette
- Trend: Reality 2.0
-
- Figure 82: Attitudes toward trends – Reality 2.0, January 2017
- Trend observation: IKEA catalog app
- Trend: Be the Change
-
- Figure 83: Attitudes toward trends – Be the Change, January 2017
- Trend observation: Starbucks FoodShare
- Trend: Life in Sync
-
- Figure 84: Attitudes toward trends – Life in Sync, January 2017
- Trend observation: Amazon Alexa devices
The Consumer – How Extra Money is Spent
-
- Perceptions of finances remain stable (and positive)
-
- Figure 85: Perceptions of financial health, 2013-17
- More consumers hold steady on spending
-
- Figure 86: Perceived change in spending, by category, January 2017
-
- Figure 87: Perceived change in spending – Spent more, by category, 2016-17
- Men and women indulge differently
-
- Figure 88: Spending more or less – Select items, by gender, January 2017
- Allocation of extra money aligns with previous years
-
- Figure 89: Where extra money is spent, January 2017 vs January 2016
- Younger consumers saving – but not necessarily through investments
-
- Figure 90: Where extra money is spent – Select items, by age, January 2017
- White consumers more likely to spend on experiences
-
- Figure 91: Where extra money is spent – Select items, by race, January 2017
The Consumer – Middle-Class Values
-
- About half of Americans consider themselves “middle class”
-
- Figure 92: Middle-class values, January 2017
- Higher-income households still consider themselves “in the middle”
-
- Figure 93: Attitudes toward socioeconomic status – Perceptions of middle class, by household income, January 2017
- Middle-class Americans struggle with more than a lack of money
-
- Figure 94: Middle-class values – Select items, by socioeconomic status, January 2017
- Region doesn’t drive significant differences in attitude
-
- Figure 95: Middle-class values – Select items, by region, January 2017
- Older, White, and male Americans more likely to feel values are shared
-
- Figure 96: Shared values, by key demographics, January 2017
- Young adults less satisfied, but feel they have opportunities to advance
-
- Figure 97: Attitudes toward socioeconomic status – Income mobility, by age, January 2017
The Consumer – The State of the Country
-
- Concerns about the country abound
-
- Figure 98: Concerns for the country, January 2017
-
- Figure 99: Personally concerned with economic/financial issues, November 2011
- Immigration concerns may extend beyond a fear of job loss
-
- Figure 100: Concerns for the country – Select items, by age, January 2017
- Black adults concerned with local issues
-
- Figure 101: Concerns for the country – Select items, by race, January 2017
- Macro issues appear more pressing for high-income Americans
-
- Figure 102: Concerns for the country – Select items, by socioeconomic status, January 2017
- Large majority of Americans concerned with maintaining lifestyles
-
- Figure 103: Concerns for the country – Maintaining standard of living, by household income and education, January 2017
The Consumer – Looking Past the Election
-
- Consumers more positive about the US economy than their personal prospects
-
- Figure 104: Impact of the presidential election, February 2017
- Most feel their financial situation will remain unchanged
-
- Figure 105: Postelection and post-inauguration attitudes toward financial situations, November 2016 and February 2017
- Americans willing to wait it out
-
- Figure 106: Election attitudes, November 2016-February 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
-
- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- A note on socioeconomic levels
Appendix – Demographic Tables
-
-
- Figure 107: US population and households, by region, 2015
- Figure 108: US population, by generation, 2012-22
- Figure 109: Distribution of population, by age and race/Hispanic origin, 2016
-
- Figure 110: Refugee arrivals: Fiscal Years 1990-2015
- Figure 111: Annual births and fertility rate, 2005-15
-
- Figure 112: Family and nonfamily households as a percentage of total households, 2006-16
-
Appendix – Economic Tables
-
-
- Figure 113: GDP change from previous period, Q1 2007-Q4 2016
- Figure 114: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-February 2017
- Figure 115: US gasoline and diesel retail prices (dollars per gallon), January 2007-March 2017
-
- Figure 116: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-February 2017
- Figure 117: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-February 2016
-
Appendix – Category Expenditures Tables
-
-
- Figure 118: Total US market value and forecast of Alcoholic Drinks (in home), at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 119: Total market value and forecast of Alcoholic Drinks (in home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 120: Total US market value and forecast of Alcoholic Drinks (out of home), at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 121: Total US market value and forecast of Alcoholic Drinks (out of home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 122: Total US market value and forecast of Beauty and Personal Care, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 123: Total US market value and forecast of Beauty and Personal Care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 124: Total US market value and forecast of Clothing and Accessories, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 125: Total US market value and forecast of Clothing and Accessories, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 126: Total US market value and forecast for Foodservice (Eating Out and Takeaways), at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 127: Total US market value and forecast for Foodservice (Eating Out and Takeaways), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 128: Total US market value and forecast of Health and Vision, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 129: Total US market value and forecast of Health and Vision, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 130: Total US market value and forecast of Home and Garden, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 131: Total US market value and forecast of Home and Garden, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 132: Total US market value and forecast of Household Care, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 133: Total US market value and forecast of Household Care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 134: Total US market value and forecast of Housing, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 135: Total US market value and forecast of Housing, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 136: Total US market value and forecast of In-home Food, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 137: Total US market value and forecast of In-home Food, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 138: Total US market value and forecast of Recreation & Leisure (Leisure and Entertainment), at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 139: Total US market value and forecast of Recreation & Leisure (Leisure and Entertainment), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 140: Total US market value and forecast of Miscellaneous Expenditure, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 141: Total US market value and forecast of Miscellaneous Expenditure, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 142: Total US market value and forecast of Non-alcoholic Drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 143: Total US market value and forecast of Non-alcoholic Drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 144: Total US market value and forecast of OTC and Pharmaceuticals, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 145: Total US market value and forecast of OTC and Pharmaceuticals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 146: Total US market value and forecast of Personal Finance, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 147: Total US market value and forecast of Personal Finance, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 148: Total US market value and forecast of Technology and Communications, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 149: Total US market value and forecast of Technology and Communications, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 150: Total US market value and forecast of Transport, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 151: Total US market value and forecast of Transport, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 152: Total US market value and forecast of Vacations and Tourism, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 153: Total US market value and forecast of Vacations and Tourism, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 154: Total US market value and forecast of Total Market, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 155: Total US market value and forecast of Total Market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
-
Back to top