Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Market overview
- Modest sales growth for 2017 driven by lower birthrates
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2011-21
- The issues
- Mainstream purchased more than natural brands, but not by much
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- Figure 2: Select disposable baby product purchases, December 2016
- Some parents require certification before buying natural/organic brands
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- Figure 3: Select attitudes toward natural and organic disposable baby products, December 2016
- The opportunities
- Embrace the need for trial and error
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- Figure 4: Select purchase influencers for diapers, December 2016
- Emphasize skin health benefits in baby personal care products
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- Figure 5: Select product attributes of baby personal care products, December 2016
- Opportunity to grow sales by cross-promoting natural brands
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- Figure 6: Select attitudes toward natural and organic disposable baby products, December 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Industry experiences minimal gains in 2017 as birthrates stall
- All segments see similar lackluster sales for 2017
- Cross-purchasing and emerging legislation impact natural
- Birthrates level off following 2014 increase
Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2011-21
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Market Breakdown
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- Stalled birthrates challenge diaper and training pant sales
- Baby wipes sales remain modest as consumers seek value
- Parents may be saying “less is more” to baby personal care
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- Figure 9: Share of US retail sales of disposable baby products, by segment, at current prices, 2016
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Other retailers see highest growth, driven by mass merchandisers
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of disposable baby products, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Market Perspective
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- Natural products intersection between parent and child
- Popularity of do-it-yourself could impede growth for brands
- Increasing regulation is impacting natural
- Dads command attention from disposable baby brands
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- Figure 12: Johnson & Johnson Commercial, April 25, 2016
Market Factors
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- Births remain flat after 2014’s surge
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- Figure 13: Number of births in the US, 2007-15
- Birthrate by age of mother getting older
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- Figure 14: US birthrates, by age of mother, 2007, 2014 and 2015
- Strong consumer confidence bodes well
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- Figure 15: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007-December 2016
- Hispanic female population expected to see high growth
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- Figure 16: US female population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Kimberly-Clark performs best within struggling MULO environment
- Natural, therapeutic brands appeal to parents
- Mainstream wipe brands, select personal care struggle
- New Baby Box, “smart” fabrics could impact industry
Manufacturer Sales of Disposable Baby Products
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- Kimberly-Clark experiencing most positive performance despite dips
- Top shareholder P&G is pulled down by Luv’s
- Private label faring slightly better than industry driven by wipes
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- Figure 17: MULO sales of disposable baby products, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Honest Company appeals to natural shoppers
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- Figure 18: The Honest Company sales, 2015
What’s Working?
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- Natural brands grow as parents value safety, gentleness on skin
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- Figure 19: Advertisement for the Honest Company, Nov. 4, 2016
- Sensitivity concerns drive growth of therapeutic personal care brands
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of baby personal care products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Branded wipes lose out to natural
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of Huggies and P&G baby wipes, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Luv’s struggles to connect with a target market
- Lotions, shampoo, powder see declines as shoppers buy alternatives
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of baby personal care products, by segment, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Next?
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- Baby boxes rolling out nationwide?
- “Smart” fabrics could revolutionize diaper changes
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Baby wipes most common purchase, baby oil and powder among least
- Mass merchandisers are the go-to shopping location
- Skin health benefits matter most for baby personal care
- Diaper purchases influenced by trial and error
- Promotions, brand, efficacy influence wipe purchases
- Safety, gentleness perceptions drive purchase of natural brands
Disposable Baby Product Purchases
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- Wipes most widely purchased amid multiple uses, lack of alternatives
- Lotion and cream preferred over traditional baby products
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- Figure 23: Disposable baby product purchases, December 2016
- Mainstream-only shoppers most prominent, but not by much
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- Figure 24: Correspondence analysis – Product purchases, December 2016
- Correspondence methodology
- New parents more likely to buy natural or organic
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- Figure 25: Disposable baby product purchases – Any natural or organic product usage (net), by parent experience, December 2016
- Hispanics are heavier purchases of natural brands
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- Figure 26: Disposable baby product purchases – Any natural or organic product usage (net), by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Purchase Locations
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- Mass merchandisers most popular purchase location
- Grocery stores and club offer convenience, low prices
- Parents of young children appreciate online subscriptions
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- Figure 27: Purchase locations for disposable baby products, December 2016
- Younger parents seek value
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- Figure 28: Select purchase locations for disposable baby products, by age, December 2016
- New parents more likely to shop specialty baby stores
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- Figure 29: Purchase locations for disposable baby products, by parent experience, December 2016
- Hispanics more likely to shop at club, baby-specific stores
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- Figure 30: Purchase locations for disposable baby products, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Important Attributes for Baby Personal Care Products
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- Skin health benefits are top priority for parents
- Brand equates to trust
- Pediatrician recommendation important for diaper cream
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- Figure 31: Product attributes of baby personal care products, December 2016
- New parents are more influenced by recommendations
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- Figure 32: Influence of recommendations on baby personal care products, by parent experience, December 2016
- Hispanic origin plays minimal role in attribute importance
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- Figure 33: Product attributes of select baby personal care products, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Diaper Purchase Influencers
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- Trial and error lead reason for diaper purchases
- Brand symbolizes trust for some parents, but the landscape is changing
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- Figure 34: Purchase influencers for diapers, December 2016
- New parents less likely to purchase based on experience
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- Figure 35: Purchase influencers for diapers, by parent experience, December 2016
- Hispanics less reliant on trial and error
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- Figure 36: Purchase influencers for diapers, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Disposable Wipes Purchase Habits
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- Promotions influence stocking-up, brand switching…
- …however wipes must still be effective
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- Figure 37: Disposable baby wipe purchase habits, December 2016
- Discounts and coupons more appealing to younger parents
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- Figure 38: Select disposable baby wipe purchase habits, by age of parent, December 2016
Attitudes toward Natural Products
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- Safety, gentle on skin leads majority of parents to buy natural
- One in five purchase more natural compared to year ago
- Some require certification before buying natural or organic
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- Figure 39: Attitudes toward natural and organic disposable baby products, December 2016
- New parents more likely to believe natural products work better
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- Figure 40: Select attitudes toward natural and organic disposable baby products, by parent experience, December 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 42: Total US retail sales of disposable baby products, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Figure 43: Total US retail sales of disposable baby products, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 44: MULO sales of disposable diapers/training pants by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 45: MULO sales of baby wipes/towelettes by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 46: MULO sales of baby personal care products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 47: Median household income, by age of householder, 2015
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- Figure 48: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
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- Figure 49: Average household size, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
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- Figure 50: Disposable baby brands Purchased, by consumers, December 2016
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- Figure 51: Baby oil and baby lotion brand usage, July 2015-August 2016
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- Figure 52: Brands of pre-moistened wipes/cloths for babies used in the household, July 2015-August 2016
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- Figure 53: Disposable diaper/training pant brand usage, July 2015-August 2016
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- Figure 54: Baby wash and baby bath product brand usage, July 2015-August 2016
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