Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Ice cream volumes continue to fall in 2015
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- Figure 1: UK retail sales of ice cream, by value, 2011-21
- Another challenging year for desserts
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- Figure 2: UK retail sales of desserts, by value, 2011-21
- Handheld singles – The only ice cream segment in growth
- Ambient desserts struggle
- Ageing population continues to present a challenge
- Improving incomes should provide a boost to premiumisation
- Companies and brands
- Unilever retains stronghold in ice cream
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- Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK ice cream retail market, by value, 2015/16*
- Gü’s rapid growth points to premium demand
- Brands struggle as ambient dessert sales fall
- Own-label strengthens its position in frozen desserts
- Dairy ice cream grows share of launches, healthy variants remain rare
- Unilever caps calories, Ambrosia goes frozen
- Total adspend continues to climb in 2015
- The consumer
- Half of adults eat ice cream weekly during the warmer months
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- Figure 4: Frequency of eating ice cream, by season, March 2016
- Large ice cream tubs are most popular format
- Desserts are a rare treat for most
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- Figure 5: Frequency of eating desserts, by type, March 2016
- The young and families are the core dessert demographics
- A favourite flavour is the key choice factor for ice cream and desserts
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- Figure 6: Choice factors for ice cream and desserts, March 2016
- Coated bite-sized ice cream attracts interest
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- Figure 7: Interest in ice cream and dessert products, March 2016
- Healthier ice cream would be welcomed by consumers
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards ice cream and desserts, March 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- High interest in healthier and smaller ice cream formats
- The facts
- The implications
- Opportunities are ripe for low-sugar desserts
- The facts
- The implications
- Heatable sauces could add value to ice cream
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Ice cream volumes continue to fall in 2015
- Further decline on the cards to 2021
- Another challenging year for desserts
- Little signs of pressure on desserts easing
- Handheld singles – The only ice cream segment in growth
- Ambient desserts struggle
- The sugar debate continues
- Ageing population continues to present a challenge
- Improving incomes should provide a boost to premiumisation
Market Size and Forecast
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- Ice cream volumes continue to fall in 2015
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- Figure 9: UK retail sales of ice cream, by value and volume, 2011-21
- Further decline on the cards to 2021
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- Figure 10: UK retail sales of ice cream, by value, 2011-21
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- Figure 11: UK retail sales of ice cream, by volume, 2011-21
- Another challenging year for desserts in 2015
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- Figure 12: UK retail sales of desserts, by value and volume, 2011-21
- No sign of pressure on desserts easing
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- Figure 13: UK retail sales of desserts, by value, 2011-21
- Figure 14: UK retail sales of desserts, by volume, 2011-21
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Handheld singles – The only ice cream segment in growth
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- Figure 15: UK retail sales of ice cream, by type, by value and volume, 2013-16
- Ambient desserts struggle
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- Figure 16: UK retail sales of desserts, by type, by value and volume, 2011-16
Market Drivers
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- The sugar debate continues
- Poor summer weather dampens ice cream sales
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- Figure 17: Hours of UK sunshine, 2012-15
- Ageing population continues to present a challenge
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- Figure 18: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-15 and 2015-20
- Improving incomes should provide a boost to premiumisation
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Unilever retains stronghold in ice cream
- Gü’s rapid growth points to premium demand
- Brands struggle as ambient dessert sales fall
- Own-label strengthens its position in frozen desserts
- Dairy ice cream grows share of launches, healthy variants remain rare
- Unilever caps calories, Ambrosia goes frozen
- Total adspend continues to climb in 2015
Market Share
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- Unilever retains stronghold of the ice cream market
- Häagen-Dazs sees double-digit declines
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- Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ice cream retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Nestlé & R&R agree joint venture in 2016
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- Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ice cream retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Gü’s rapid growth points to premiumsation
- Volume sales of Müller Rice stabilise
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- Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Brands struggle as ambient dessert sales fall
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
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- Figure 23: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Own-label strengthens its position in frozen desserts
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Dairy ice cream grows share of total launches
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- Figure 25: NPD in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by segment, 2012-16
- Retailers take back lead in NPD
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- Figure 26: NPD in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Unilever looks to calorie caps and snack formats
- Unilever caps single-serve ice creams at 250 calories
- Ben & Jerry’s brings back the ’Wich line
- Magnum relaunches Double range
- General Mills takes Häagen-Dazs into the hand-held market
- Ambrosia brings frozen custard to the UK
- Kelly’s of Cornwall relaunched with ice cream parlour design
- Clear packaging gains ground in ice cream
- Low/no/reduced fat and sugar claims remain rare
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- Figure 27: Share of new product launches in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by selected health claims, 2012-16
- Chilled desserts attract branded activity
- Bonne Maman extends in chilled
- Hain Daniels launches Naughty but Rice
- Mary Berry launches chilled desserts
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Total adspend continues to climb in 2015
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- Figure 28: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream and desserts, by segment, 2012-16
- Müller leads spend as it supports new launches
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- Figure 29: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream and desserts, by top 5 advertisers (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Unilever supports its brand portfolio
- Magnum Pink and Black offers playfulness and sophistication
- Magnum dares consumers to go double
- Ben & Jerry’s new Core lines feature in TV advertising
- ‘Save Our Swirled’ promotes climate campaign
- Ben & Jerry’s urges Londoners to vote with name change
- ‘Wich range enjoys strong support
- Cornetto continues to focus on romance
- General Mills ramps up spend on Häagen-Dazs
- Bonne Maman makes TV debut
- Ambrosia launches ‘Taste of Happy’ campaign in 2016
- Kelly’s showcases heritage through Cornish speaking ad
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Half of adults eat ice cream weekly during the warmer months
- Large ice cream tubs are most popular format
- Desserts are a rare treat for most
- The young and families are the core dessert demographics
- A favourite flavour is the key choice factor for ice cream and desserts
- Health-related claims are a low priority
- Coated bite-sized ice cream attracts interest
- Hot-serve sauces could heat up the ice cream market
- Fruit desserts hold wide appeal
- Healthier ice cream would be welcomed by consumers
- Sizeable demand for low-sugar desserts
Usage of Ice Cream
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- Half of adults eat ice cream weekly during the warmer months
- Around one in five eats ice cream weekly during the colder months
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- Figure 30: Frequency of eating ice cream, by season, March 2016
- Young men are core ice cream eaters
- Large ice cream tubs are most popular format
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- Figure 31: Types of ice cream eaten in the past three months, March 2016
- Under-35s and families are the main eaters of all formats
Usage of Desserts
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- Nine in 10 people eat desserts
- Desserts are a rare treat for most
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- Figure 32: Frequency of eating desserts, by type, March 2016
- Young bias towards eating desserts
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- Figure 33: Any usage of desserts in the last three months, by type, by age group, March 2016
- Families are the core demographic
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- Figure 34: Usage of desserts once a week or more, by type, by the age of children in household, March 2016
Choice Factors for Ice Cream and Desserts
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- A favourite flavour is the key choice factor for ice cream and desserts
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- Figure 35: Choice factors for ice cream and desserts, March 2016
- Special offers and promotions are important tools to sway consumers
- Health-related claims are a low priority
Interest in Ice Cream and Dessert Products
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- Coated bite-sized ice cream attracts interest
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- Figure 36: Interest in ice cream and dessert products, March 2016
- Hot-serve sauces could heat up the ice cream market
- Notable interest in desserts made with yogurt
- Fruit desserts hold appeal
Attitudes towards Ice Cream and Desserts
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- Healthier ice cream would be welcomed by consumers
- Reformulation poses a risk
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- Figure 37: Attitudes towards ice cream and desserts, March 2016
- Sizeable demand for low-sugar desserts
- Reducing the size of single-serve ice cream receives mixed support
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 38: Total UK retail value sale of ice cream and desserts, 2011-21
- Figure 39: Total UK retail value sales of ice cream and desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
- Figure 40: UK retail value sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
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- Figure 41: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
- Figure 42: UK retail value sales of desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
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- Figure 43: UK retail volume sales of desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
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