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Ice Cream and Desserts - UK - June 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
Ice cream
Desserts
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Ice cream volumes continue to fall in 2015
Figure 1: UK retail sales of ice cream, by value, 2011-21
Another challenging year for desserts
Figure 2: UK retail sales of desserts, by value, 2011-21
Handheld singles – The only ice cream segment in growth
Ambient desserts struggle
Ageing population continues to present a challenge
Improving incomes should provide a boost to premiumisation
Companies and brands
Unilever retains stronghold in ice cream
Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK ice cream retail market, by value, 2015/16*
Gü’s rapid growth points to premium demand
Brands struggle as ambient dessert sales fall
Own-label strengthens its position in frozen desserts
Dairy ice cream grows share of launches, healthy variants remain rare
Unilever caps calories, Ambrosia goes frozen
Total adspend continues to climb in 2015
The consumer
Half of adults eat ice cream weekly during the warmer months
Figure 4: Frequency of eating ice cream, by season, March 2016
Large ice cream tubs are most popular format
Desserts are a rare treat for most
Figure 5: Frequency of eating desserts, by type, March 2016
The young and families are the core dessert demographics
A favourite flavour is the key choice factor for ice cream and desserts
Figure 6: Choice factors for ice cream and desserts, March 2016
Coated bite-sized ice cream attracts interest
Figure 7: Interest in ice cream and dessert products, March 2016
Healthier ice cream would be welcomed by consumers
Figure 8: Attitudes towards ice cream and desserts, March 2016
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
High interest in healthier and smaller ice cream formats
The facts
The implications
Opportunities are ripe for low-sugar desserts
The facts
The implications
Heatable sauces could add value to ice cream
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Ice cream volumes continue to fall in 2015
Further decline on the cards to 2021
Another challenging year for desserts
Little signs of pressure on desserts easing
Handheld singles – The only ice cream segment in growth
Ambient desserts struggle
The sugar debate continues
Ageing population continues to present a challenge
Improving incomes should provide a boost to premiumisation
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Ice cream volumes continue to fall in 2015
Figure 9: UK retail sales of ice cream, by value and volume, 2011-21
Further decline on the cards to 2021
Figure 10: UK retail sales of ice cream, by value, 2011-21
Figure 11: UK retail sales of ice cream, by volume, 2011-21
Another challenging year for desserts in 2015
Figure 12: UK retail sales of desserts, by value and volume, 2011-21
No sign of pressure on desserts easing
Figure 13: UK retail sales of desserts, by value, 2011-21
Figure 14: UK retail sales of desserts, by volume, 2011-21
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Handheld singles – The only ice cream segment in growth
Figure 15: UK retail sales of ice cream, by type, by value and volume, 2013-16
Ambient desserts struggle
Figure 16: UK retail sales of desserts, by type, by value and volume, 2011-16
MARKET DRIVERS
The sugar debate continues
Poor summer weather dampens ice cream sales
Figure 17: Hours of UK sunshine, 2012-15
Ageing population continues to present a challenge
Figure 18: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-15 and 2015-20
Improving incomes should provide a boost to premiumisation
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Unilever retains stronghold in ice cream
Gü’s rapid growth points to premium demand
Brands struggle as ambient dessert sales fall
Own-label strengthens its position in frozen desserts
Dairy ice cream grows share of launches, healthy variants remain rare
Unilever caps calories, Ambrosia goes frozen
Total adspend continues to climb in 2015
MARKET SHARE
Unilever retains stronghold of the ice cream market
Häagen-Dazs sees double-digit declines
Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ice cream retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Nestlé & R&R agree joint venture in 2016
Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ice cream retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Gü’s rapid growth points to premiumsation
Volume sales of Müller Rice stabilise
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Brands struggle as ambient dessert sales fall
Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Figure 23: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Own-label strengthens its position in frozen desserts
Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Dairy ice cream grows share of total launches
Figure 25: NPD in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by segment, 2012-16
Retailers take back lead in NPD
Figure 26: NPD in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
Unilever looks to calorie caps and snack formats
Unilever caps single-serve ice creams at 250 calories
Ben & Jerry’s brings back the ’Wich line
Magnum relaunches Double range
General Mills takes Häagen-Dazs into the hand-held market
Ambrosia brings frozen custard to the UK
Kelly’s of Cornwall relaunched with ice cream parlour design
Clear packaging gains ground in ice cream
Low/no/reduced fat and sugar claims remain rare
Figure 27: Share of new product launches in the UK ice cream and desserts market, by selected health claims, 2012-16
Chilled desserts attract branded activity
Bonne Maman extends in chilled
Hain Daniels launches Naughty but Rice
Mary Berry launches chilled desserts
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Total adspend continues to climb in 2015
Figure 28: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream and desserts, by segment, 2012-16
Müller leads spend as it supports new launches
Figure 29: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream and desserts, by top 5 advertisers (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
Unilever supports its brand portfolio
Magnum Pink and Black offers playfulness and sophistication
Magnum dares consumers to go double
Ben & Jerry’s new Core lines feature in TV advertising
‘Save Our Swirled’ promotes climate campaign
Ben & Jerry’s urges Londoners to vote with name change
‘Wich range enjoys strong support
Cornetto continues to focus on romance
General Mills ramps up spend on Häagen-Dazs
Bonne Maman makes TV debut
Ambrosia launches ‘Taste of Happy’ campaign in 2016
Kelly’s showcases heritage through Cornish speaking ad
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Half of adults eat ice cream weekly during the warmer months
Large ice cream tubs are most popular format
Desserts are a rare treat for most
The young and families are the core dessert demographics
A favourite flavour is the key choice factor for ice cream and desserts
Health-related claims are a low priority
Coated bite-sized ice cream attracts interest
Hot-serve sauces could heat up the ice cream market
Fruit desserts hold wide appeal
Healthier ice cream would be welcomed by consumers
Sizeable demand for low-sugar desserts
USAGE OF ICE CREAM
Half of adults eat ice cream weekly during the warmer months
Around one in five eats ice cream weekly during the colder months
Figure 30: Frequency of eating ice cream, by season, March 2016
Young men are core ice cream eaters
Large ice cream tubs are most popular format
Figure 31: Types of ice cream eaten in the past three months, March 2016
Under-35s and families are the main eaters of all formats
USAGE OF DESSERTS
Nine in 10 people eat desserts
Desserts are a rare treat for most
Figure 32: Frequency of eating desserts, by type, March 2016
Young bias towards eating desserts
Figure 33: Any usage of desserts in the last three months, by type, by age group, March 2016
Families are the core demographic
Figure 34: Usage of desserts once a week or more, by type, by the age of children in household, March 2016
CHOICE FACTORS FOR ICE CREAM AND DESSERTS
A favourite flavour is the key choice factor for ice cream and desserts
Figure 35: Choice factors for ice cream and desserts, March 2016
Special offers and promotions are important tools to sway consumers
Health-related claims are a low priority
INTEREST IN ICE CREAM AND DESSERT PRODUCTS
Coated bite-sized ice cream attracts interest
Figure 36: Interest in ice cream and dessert products, March 2016
Hot-serve sauces could heat up the ice cream market
Notable interest in desserts made with yogurt
Fruit desserts hold appeal
ATTITUDES TOWARDS ICE CREAM AND DESSERTS
Healthier ice cream would be welcomed by consumers
Reformulation poses a risk
Figure 37: Attitudes towards ice cream and desserts, March 2016
Sizeable demand for low-sugar desserts
Reducing the size of single-serve ice cream receives mixed support
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 38: Total UK retail value sale of ice cream and desserts, 2011-21
Figure 39: Total UK retail value sales of ice cream and desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 40: UK retail value sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 41: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 42: UK retail value sales of desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Figure 43: UK retail volume sales of desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21

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