Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Flooring market shows modest but steady growth
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of residential flooring market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Multiple indicators suggest moderating growth
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- Figure 2: NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI), 2010-16
- Health and safety issues linger for Lumber Liquidators and larger market
- Under-45s increasingly want online options for shopping and purchasing
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- Figure 3: Purchase behaviors – Online tool usage, by age, January 2016
- The opportunities
- Hard surface still trending, led by LVT
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- Figure 4: Amount spent on flooring by type, 2010-15
- Made in the USA, clean air, and non-toxic claims spell opportunity
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- Figure 5: Reasons for purchase, January 2016
- Consumers combine online and offline sources for information on flooring
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- Figure 6: Information sources, January 2016
- Choice tools important way to reach key markets
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- Figure 7: Attitudes toward flooring options, by age and Hispanic origin, January 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Solid growth in flooring market expected to continue
- Average spend in most categories nearly flat from 2010-15
- Indicators positive for modest growth in flooring market
Market Size and Forecast
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- Residential flooring growth outpaces overall economy
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of residential flooring market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of residential flooring, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Spend
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- Carpet and wood flooring categories see highest average spend
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- Figure 10: Amount spent on flooring by type, July 2014-September 2015
- LVT drives up spend on vinyl tile
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- Figure 11: Amount spent on flooring by type, 2010-15
Market Factors
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- Consumer sentiment cooling off
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- Figure 12: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, 2010-15
- Housing starts continue strong
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- Figure 13: New privately owned housing units started (seasonally adjusted), 2010-15
- Decline in homeownership may be at an end
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- Figure 14: National homeownership rate, 2010-15
- Remodeling outlook positive
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- Figure 15: NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI), 2010-16
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Good times for Mohawk and LVT
- Safety concerns taint Lumber Liquidators and imports
- Product innovations promise healthier homes
- Hardwood and US-made products poised for growth
- Augmented reality shopping tools on the horizon
What’s Working?
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- Mohawk continues to lead
- Luxury vinyl continues to grow share
- Green claims more relevant than ever
What’s Struggling?
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- Armstrong loses market share
- Product safety issues linger for Lumber Liquidators
- Health and safety concerns cut across industry
- Installer shortage creating backlog and concerns about quality
What’s Next?
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- Flooring that makes your home healthier
- US-grown and made
- Hardwood to benefit from open-plan designs
- More consumers use multiple shopping modes
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- High tech materials more versatile than ever
- Hard surface flooring trending with key demographics
- Necessity drives more carpeting purchases
- Home improvement chains lead in flooring sales
- Younger buyers favor online research over in-person experts
- Online and mobile tools important for reaching core flooring consumers
Installed Flooring by Room
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- Carpet dominates more rooms
- Wood growing trend for kitchens
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- Figure 16: Correspondence analysis – Flooring type, by room, January 2016
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- Figure 17: flooring type by room, January 2016
- Correspondence analysis methodology
Recent Purchases and Intent to Purchase
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- Movement from wall-to-wall to hard surface and rugs
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- Figure 18: Flooring purchases and intent to purchase – Any hard surface vs any carpeting, January 2016
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- Figure 19: Flooring purchases and intent to purchase, January 2016
- 25-44s key flooring buyers, especially for hard-surface categories
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- Figure 20: Hard-surface flooring types purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by age, January 2016
- Carpet holds broad appeal across ages
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- Figure 21: Carpeting types purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by age, January 2016
- Hispanics favor innovative categories
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- Figure 22: Hard-surface flooring purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
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- Figure 23: Carpet purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
- Trendy bamboo, carpet tile categories rely on high-income households
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- Figure 24: Any flooring purchased in past year or intend to purchase, by household income, January 2016
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- Figure 25: Hard-surface flooring purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by household income, January 2016
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- Figure 26: Carpet purchased in past year and intent to purchase, by household income, January 2016
Reasons for Purchase
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- Most buyers cite multiple reasons for flooring purchases
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- Figure 27: Reasons for purchase, January 2016
- Worn carpeting largest driver of flooring purchases
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- Figure 28: Reasons for purchase, by flooring type, January 2016
- Young adults seek healthy and green flooring options
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- Figure 29: Reasons for purchase, by age, January 2016
- Hispanics buy flooring as part of home upgrades
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- Figure 30: Reasons for purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
- $100K+ households prime market for value-added features
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- Figure 31: Reasons for purchase, all vs household income of $100K+, January 2016
Purchase Locations
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- Home chains lead, followed by independent specialists
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- Figure 32: Purchase locations, January 2016
- Younger buyers favor chains, steer clear of specialists
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- Figure 33: Purchase locations, January 2016
- Hispanics over index with mass merchants and contractors
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- Figure 34: Purchase locations, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Information and Inspiration Sources
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- Offline experiences still important to consumers
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- Figure 35: Information sources, January 2016
- Personal touch important to oldest flooring purchasers
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- Figure 36: Information sources, by age, January 2016
- Hispanics seek advice from others – online and off
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- Figure 37: Information sources, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
- Hard surface flooring benefits from media attention
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- Figure 38: Information sources, by type of flooring purchased in past year, January 2016
- Specialty retailers benefit when consumers do more research
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- Figure 39: Information sources, by purchase location, January 2016
Purchase Behaviors
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- Self-installers and online shoppers represent distinctive markets
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- Figure 40: Purchase behaviors, January 2016
- Younger adults (18-44) embrace online shopping tools
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- Figure 41: Purchase behaviors, by age, January 2016
- Hispanics lead in online shopping and self-installation
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- Figure 42: Purchase behaviors, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
- Warehouse club shoppers favor online shopping modes
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward flooring options, by purchase location, January 2016
Attitudes toward Flooring Options
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- Industry offer options at a wide range of price tiers
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward flooring options, January 2016
- Under-35s more likely to use shopping tools
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward flooring options, by age, January 2016
- Social solutions may help Hispanics manage choice
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- Figure 46: Attitudes toward flooring options, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of residential flooring, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 48: Installation responsibility, by flooring type, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 49: Wall-to-wall carpet installation responsibility, by Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
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