Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Total market volume to remain largely flat while value set to rise
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- Figure 1: Forecast of total holiday market volume, 2010-20
- Figure 2: Forecast of total holiday market Value*, 2010-20
- The consumer
- A rise in UK and overseas holidays
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- Figure 3: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months, October 2014 and November 2015
- Boost in popularity for city breaks
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- Figure 4: Holiday types taken in the past 12 months, October 2014 and November 2015
- Mobile bookings still relatively uncommon
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards booking a holiday on a smartphone versus a laptop/desktop/tablet, November 2015
- Long-haul flights; comfort of legacy carriers could outweigh cheap prices of budget carriers for many
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- Figure 6: Holiday attitudes, November 2015
- A quarter of consumers expect to spend more on holidays in 2016
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- Figure 7: Future holiday plans, November 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Mobile bookings are still unpopular among consumers but offer opportunities
- The facts
- The implications
- Holiday destination influencing factors – take care not to overlook the potential of social media
- The facts
- The implications
- How will Airbnb perform in 2016?
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Strong growth overseas dampened by contracting domestic market
- Overseas volume on the up and set to surpass 2008 levels by 2020
- As overseas trips rise, domestic trips to take a back seat
- Strong consumer confidence should fuel holiday taking in 2016
Market Size and Forecast
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- Total volume to remain largely flat while value set to rise by 2020
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- Figure 8: Estimated total holiday market volume and value, 2010-20
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- Figure 9: Forecast of total holiday market volume, 2010-20
- Figure 10: Forecast of total holiday market value*, 2010-20
- Overseas growth surging ahead
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- Figure 11: Overseas holiday market volume and value*, 2010-20
- Figure 12: Forecast of overseas holiday market volume, 2010-20
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- Figure 13: Forecast overseas holiday market value, 2010-20
- Despite growth in 2015, domestic trips still below 2013 levels
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- Figure 14: Estimated domestic holiday market volume and value*, 2010-20
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- Figure 15: Forecast of domestic holiday market volume, 2010-20
- Figure 16: Forecast of domestic holiday market value*, 2010-20
Segment Performance
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- Package holidays improving market share
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- Figure 17: Volume of overseas package and independent holidays, 2010-15
- Air travel continues to dominate with resurgence in overseas trips
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- Figure 18: Volume of overseas holidays, by transport method, 2010-15
- Poland sees an increase in incoming holiday visits due to new routes from the UK
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- Figure 19: Top 20 holiday destinations for UK residents, 2010-14
- Figure 20: Top 20 holiday destinations, January-June 2014 versus January-June 2015
- Figure 21: Top 20 growth rate, January-June 2014 and January-June 2015
Market Share
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- easyJet and British Airways increase market share but still lag behind Ryanair
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- Figure 22: Global passengers uplifted, by top 10 UK airlines, 2010-14
- TUI sits at the top of ATOL licensed passenger table
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- Figure 23: Passengers licensed under ATOL protection, by top 10 ATOL holders, 2011-16
Market Drivers
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- Rising consumer confidence should fuel holiday taking
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- Figure 24: Consumer confidence, September 2010-September 2015
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- Figure 25: Trends in what extra money is spent on, October 2015
- Cheap jet fuel to drive prices lower
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- Figure 26: Jet fuel prices, Pound Sterling per gallon, November 2010- November 2015
- The Pound’s relative strength
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- Figure 27: British Pound value increase/decrease against selected destination currencies, December 2012-December 2015
- London in the top half of the City Cost Barometer Index
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- Figure 28: Post Office City Cost Barometer, 2015
- ADP cuts to boost both family and long-haul trips
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- Figure 29: Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates April 2012-April 2016
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- The high street; more concept stores planned for TUI
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- Figure 30: A TUI concept store, December 2015
- Boeing says folding wing tip is in development for its upcoming 777X
- easyJet pioneering drones to cut delays
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- Figure 31: easyJet’s drone inspecting a plane
- KLM to provide tailored responses to customers’ questions online
- Air New Zealand allows parents to track unaccompanied minors
- Virgin streamlines the hotel experience with its new app
- TripAdvisor’s Instant Booking tool takes off
- Socialising in hotels facilitated via mobile apps
- Marriott trials Virtual Reality headsets
- Onboard family spaces planned for Thomson aircrafts
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- Figure 32: The family booths proposed for Thomson Airways, December 2015
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- A jump in holidays both in the UK and overseas
- City breaks on the rise
- Smartphone bookings still uncommon
- Potential for budget long-haul carriers but affluent may still favour legacy carriers
- Consumers as the PR mouthpiece
Holidays Taken in the Last Year
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- Figure 33: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months, October 2014 and November 2015
- Figure 34: Holidaymakers, by age, November 2015
- How many destinations are people visiting each year?
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- Figure 35: Repertoire of holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months, November 2015
- Opportunity for experts to provide long-haul destination advice
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- Figure 36: Holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months outside of Europe, November 2015
- UK is the most popular repeat holiday destination followed by France
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- Figure 37: Amount of holidays taken in various destinations, November 2015
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Type of Holidays Taken in the Past Year
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- City breaks’ popularity grows
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- Figure 38: Holiday types taken in the past 12 months, October 2014 and November 2015
- City breaks popular among high-frequency holidaymakers
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- Figure 39: Holiday types taken in the past 12 months, by repertoire of holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months, November 2015
- Snowsports for the affluent young, and cruises for the affluent seniors
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- Figure 40: Holiday types taken in the past 12 months, by age, November 2015
Holiday Booking Methods
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- New technology enabling new experiences
- Travel agents: experience as a service
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- Figure 41: Holiday booking methods, November 2015
Online Booking Methods
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- Mobile bookings should become more common in the future
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- Figure 42: Attitudes towards booking a holiday on a smartphone versus a laptop/desktop/tablet, November 2015
- Voice bookings in the home
- Brands can make use of apps on smart TVs
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- Figure 43: Online booking methods, November 2015
Holiday Destination Influencing Factors
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- The consumer – a vital cog in the marketing machine
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- Figure 44: Discounts offered by Nordic Light Hotel for Facebook and Instagram friends/followers and fans
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- Figure 45: Holiday destination influencing factors, November 2015
- High-frequency holidaymakers heavenly influenced by their peers
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- Figure 46: Holiday destination influencing factors, by repertoire of holiday destinations visited in the past 12 months, November 2015
Holiday Attitudes
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- Budget flights not so appealing for long-haul travel
- Digital travel guides could help brands engage smartphone users
- Beacons could also help further engagement via smartphones
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- Figure 47: Holiday attitudes, November 2015
Future Holiday Plans
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- Figure 48: Future holiday plans, November 2015
- More short breaks on the cards for ABs in 2016
- Airbnb usage still low but popularity set to increase
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CHAID analysis – Holiday Review – January 2016
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- Methodology
- Millennials who have caught the travel bug are key targets for uptake of travel apps
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- Figure 49: Target groups based on attitudes towards researching and booking for holidays – CHAID – tree output, November 2015
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- Figure 50: Target groups based on attitudes towards researching and booking for holidays – CHAID – Table output, November 2015
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations, and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Definitions
- Forecast Methodology
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- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecast for total holiday volume, 2015-20
- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast for total holiday value*, 2015-20
- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast for overseas holiday volume, 2015-20
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- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast for overseas holiday value*, 2015-20
- Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecast for domestic holiday volume, 2015-20
- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast for domestic holiday value*, 2015-20
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