Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales declines projected
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- Figure 1: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
- Consumers shifting away from packaged, processed foods
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- Figure 2: Baking habits, September 2015
- Convenience not necessarily important to key users
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- Figure 3: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Faster and easier, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- The opportunities
- Capitalizing on the fun, social aspects of baking, especially among Millennials
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- Figure 4: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- Healthier, less-processed products likely to attract users shifting to fresh foods
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- Figure 5: Changes in healthier baking mix usage, September 2015
- Natural channel sales of organic products provide example for mainstream brands
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- Figure 6: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Changing consumer eating/grocery shopping habits lead to decline
- Baking supplies lead among segments, but all segments decline
- Overcoming preference for scratch baking, ready-made baked goods
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales decline due to shift in grocery shopping and eating habits
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Baking supplies lead among segments
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- Figure 9: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2015
- Declines forecasted for all segments
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- Figure 10: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
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- Figure 11: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
- Natural sales driven by organic, non-GMO products
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- Figure 12: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
- Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Market Perspective
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- Many key consumers prefer scratch baking, ready-made products
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- Figure 14: Change in baking habits – Baking from scratch – CHAID – Tree output, September 2015
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- Figure 15: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Scratch versus mix versus ready-made, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- Figure 16: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Scratch versus mix versus ready-made, by presence of children, September 2015
- Changing eating/grocery shopping habits negatively impact mixes sales
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Factors
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- Increased consumer confidence means less home cooking
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- Figure 18: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2015
- Millennials, households with children represent opportunity
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- Figure 19: US population by generation, 2010-20
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- Figure 20: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Most leading brands decline as more consumers avoid processed foods
- Premium brands, packaging overhauls, and organic intros spur growth
- On the horizon: less artificial ingredients, more organic and premium
Manufacturer Sales of Baking Mixes
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- General Mills leads but declines most
- Manufacturer sales of baking mixes
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- Figure 21: Manufacturer sales of baking mixes, 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Ghirardelli leverages premium niche
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- Figure 22: Ghirardelli YouTube promotional video, 2015
- Figure 23: MULO sales of Ghirardelli baking supplies, 2014 and 2015
- Aunt Jemima grows despite consumer ambivalence toward mixes
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of Aunt Jemima pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, 2014 and 2015
- Krusteaz brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes also grows, offers organic
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- Figure 25: Krusteaz YouTube channel video, 2015
- Figure 26: MULO sales of Krusteaz brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, 2014 and 2015
- Private label increases sales as store brands focus on quality
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of private label baking mixes, 2014 and 2015
What’s Struggling?
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- Many everyday brands drop as consumers bypass processed products
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of select brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mix brands, 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of select cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mix brands, 2014 and 2015
- Figure 30: MULO sales of leading pancake/French toast/waffle mix brands, 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of select frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations brands, 2014 and 2015
What’s Next?
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- New product launches simplify ingredients, increase quality
- New organic breakfast mix brands provide examples for larger brands
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Mix use threatened by scratch baking, ready-made products
- Consumers shifting toward healthier foods, including mixes
- Convenience is only part of the picture
- Millennial pancake mix users interested in premium/healthy ingredients
- Brands must do more to approximate homemade, scratch baking
Baking Habits
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- Ready-made baked goods, baking from scratch threaten mixes
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- Figure 32: Baking habits, September 2015
- Catering to Millennial interest in baking
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- Figure 33: Baking habits, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- Families represent potential for mix brands, scratch baking, and ready-made
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- Figure 34: Baking habits, by presence of children, September 2015
- Hispanics more likely than others to buy ready-made
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- Figure 35: Baking habits, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2015
- Premium mixes may resonate with busy parents who still want to bake
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- Figure 36: Change in baking habits – CHAID – Table output, September 2015
Changes in Baking Mix Usage
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- Using healthier mixes
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- Figure 37: Changes in baking mix usage, September 2015
- Millennials ahead of the curve on healthier mixes
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- Figure 38: Changes in baking mix usage, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- Special occasions, health considerations likely important to parents
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- Figure 39: Changes in baking mix usage, by presence of children, September 2015
- Hispanics much more apt to use healthier mixes than non-Hispanics
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- Figure 40: Changes in baking mix usage, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2015
Baking Mix Usage Frequency
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- Most use baking mixes less than once a month or not at all
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- Figure 41: Baking mix usage frequency, September 2015
- Older Millennials very likely to frequently use mixes
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- Figure 42: Baking mix usage frequency, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- Hispanics who do use mixes very likely to use them frequently
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- Figure 43: Baking mix usage frequency, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
Benefits of and Motivation for Using Baking Mixes
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- Convenience motivates many to use mixes
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- Figure 44: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes, September 2015
- Millennials not necessarily swayed by baking mix convenience
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- Figure 45: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- Family households view baking as fun, less concerned with convenience
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- Figure 46: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience, enjoyment, and household use, by presence of children, September 2015
- Hispanics more likely to be motivated by enjoyment
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- Figure 47: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
Baking Mix Purchase Reasons
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- Brand loyalty appears relatively low
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- Figure 48: Baking mix purchase reasons, September 2015
- Flavor key for Millennials
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- Figure 49: Baking mix purchase reasons – Flavor and appearance, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Pancake/Waffle Mix Purchase Reasons
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- Preferred brands likely to motivate pancake/waffle mix purchases
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- Figure 50: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Ingredients and brand, September 2015
- Millennials motivated by premium ingredients, healthy, organic
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- Figure 51: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Health-related, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- Premium, healthy products likely to appeal to Hispanics
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- Figure 52: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Health-related, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
Attitudes and Behaviors toward Baking Mixes
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- Scratch/homemade appeals for a range of reasons
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- Figure 53: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes, September 2015
- Millennials focus on social/fun aspect of baking but may opt for scratch
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- Figure 54: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Social/enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
- Despite enjoying baking, many Hispanics may find reasons not to
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- Figure 55: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Taste, time, and guilt, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 56: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Market breakdown
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of baking supplies, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast bread and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of frosting, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of other baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
- Retail channels
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- Figure 64: Total US retail sales of baking mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales of baking mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Natural supermarket sales
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- Figure 66: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Oct. 6, 2013-Oct. 4, 2015
- Figure 67: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
- Figure 68: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by segment and organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
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- Figure 69: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by brand positioning, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
- Figure 70: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by type*, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Baking supplies
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- Figure 71: MULO sales of baking supplies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Bread and cookie mixes
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- Figure 72: MULO sales of brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Cake and pastry mixes
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- Figure 73: MULO sales of cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Frosting
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- Figure 74: MULO sales of frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Pancake/French toast/waffle mixes
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- Figure 75: MULO sales of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Other baking mixes
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- Figure 76: MULO sales of other baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Appendix – Consumer
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- CHAID Analysis methodology
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- Figure 77: Change in baking habits – CHAID – Table output, September 2015
- Experian Simmons analysis
- Pancake/waffle mixes
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- Figure 78: Household use of dry pancake/waffle mixes, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 79: Brands of dry pancake/waffle mixes used, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 80: Number of packages of dry pancake/waffle mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
- Dry cake mix
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- Figure 81: Household use of dry cake mix, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 82: Brands of dry cake mix used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 83: Brands of dry cake mix used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 84: Number of packages of dry cake mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
- Dry brownie mixes
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- Figure 85: Household use of dry brownie mixes, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 86: Brands of dry brownie mix used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 87: Brands of dry brownie mix used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 88: Number of packages of dry brownie mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
- Other baking mixes
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- Figure 89: Household use of other baking mixes (including bread mixes), July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 90: What other baking mixes are used for, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 91: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 92: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 93: Number of packages of other baking mixes used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
- Baking chips and pieces
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- Figure 94: Household use of baking chips and pieces, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 95: Flavors of baking chips and pieces used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 96: Brands of baking chips and pieces used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 97: Brands of baking chips and pieces used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 98: Number of packages of baking chips and pieces used by entire household in last 12 months, July 2014-September 2015
- Frosting
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- Figure 99: Household use of frosting (store-bought), July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 100: Types of frosting used in household, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 101: Brands of frosting used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
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- Figure 102: Number of cans/packages of frosting used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
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