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Baking Mixes - US - January 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Sales declines projected
Figure 1: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
Consumers shifting away from packaged, processed foods
Figure 2: Baking habits, September 2015
Convenience not necessarily important to key users
Figure 3: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Faster and easier, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
The opportunities
Capitalizing on the fun, social aspects of baking, especially among Millennials
Figure 4: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Healthier, less-processed products likely to attract users shifting to fresh foods
Figure 5: Changes in healthier baking mix usage, September 2015
Natural channel sales of organic products provide example for mainstream brands
Figure 6: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Changing consumer eating/grocery shopping habits lead to decline
Baking supplies lead among segments, but all segments decline
Overcoming preference for scratch baking, ready-made baked goods
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Sales decline due to shift in grocery shopping and eating habits
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Baking supplies lead among segments
Figure 9: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2015
Declines forecasted for all segments
Figure 10: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
Figure 11: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
Natural sales driven by organic, non-GMO products
Figure 12: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Many key consumers prefer scratch baking, ready-made products
Figure 14: Change in baking habits – Baking from scratch – CHAID – Tree output, September 2015
Figure 15: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Scratch versus mix versus ready-made, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Figure 16: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Scratch versus mix versus ready-made, by presence of children, September 2015
Changing eating/grocery shopping habits negatively impact mixes sales
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET FACTORS
Increased consumer confidence means less home cooking
Figure 18: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2015
Millennials, households with children represent opportunity
Figure 19: US population by generation, 2010-20
Figure 20: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Most leading brands decline as more consumers avoid processed foods
Premium brands, packaging overhauls, and organic intros spur growth
On the horizon: less artificial ingredients, more organic and premium
MANUFACTURER SALES OF BAKING MIXES
General Mills leads but declines most
Manufacturer sales of baking mixes
Figure 21: Manufacturer sales of baking mixes, 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Ghirardelli leverages premium niche
Figure 22: Ghirardelli YouTube promotional video, 2015
Figure 23: MULO sales of Ghirardelli baking supplies, 2014 and 2015
Aunt Jemima grows despite consumer ambivalence toward mixes
Figure 24: MULO sales of Aunt Jemima pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, 2014 and 2015
Krusteaz brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes also grows, offers organic
Figure 25: Krusteaz YouTube channel video, 2015
Figure 26: MULO sales of Krusteaz brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, 2014 and 2015
Private label increases sales as store brands focus on quality
Figure 27: MULO sales of private label baking mixes, 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Many everyday brands drop as consumers bypass processed products
Figure 28: MULO sales of select brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mix brands, 2014 and 2015
Figure 29: MULO sales of select cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mix brands, 2014 and 2015
Figure 30: MULO sales of leading pancake/French toast/waffle mix brands, 2014 and 2015
Figure 31: MULO sales of select frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations brands, 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S NEXT?
New product launches simplify ingredients, increase quality
New organic breakfast mix brands provide examples for larger brands
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Mix use threatened by scratch baking, ready-made products
Consumers shifting toward healthier foods, including mixes
Convenience is only part of the picture
Millennial pancake mix users interested in premium/healthy ingredients
Brands must do more to approximate homemade, scratch baking
BAKING HABITS
Ready-made baked goods, baking from scratch threaten mixes
Figure 32: Baking habits, September 2015
Catering to Millennial interest in baking
Figure 33: Baking habits, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Families represent potential for mix brands, scratch baking, and ready-made
Figure 34: Baking habits, by presence of children, September 2015
Hispanics more likely than others to buy ready-made
Figure 35: Baking habits, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2015
Premium mixes may resonate with busy parents who still want to bake
Figure 36: Change in baking habits – CHAID – Table output, September 2015
CHANGES IN BAKING MIX USAGE
Using healthier mixes
Figure 37: Changes in baking mix usage, September 2015
Millennials ahead of the curve on healthier mixes
Figure 38: Changes in baking mix usage, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Special occasions, health considerations likely important to parents
Figure 39: Changes in baking mix usage, by presence of children, September 2015
Hispanics much more apt to use healthier mixes than non-Hispanics
Figure 40: Changes in baking mix usage, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2015
BAKING MIX USAGE FREQUENCY
Most use baking mixes less than once a month or not at all
Figure 41: Baking mix usage frequency, September 2015
Older Millennials very likely to frequently use mixes
Figure 42: Baking mix usage frequency, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Hispanics who do use mixes very likely to use them frequently
Figure 43: Baking mix usage frequency, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
BENEFITS OF AND MOTIVATION FOR USING BAKING MIXES
Convenience motivates many to use mixes
Figure 44: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes, September 2015
Millennials not necessarily swayed by baking mix convenience
Figure 45: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Family households view baking as fun, less concerned with convenience
Figure 46: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience, enjoyment, and household use, by presence of children, September 2015
Hispanics more likely to be motivated by enjoyment
Figure 47: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
BAKING MIX PURCHASE REASONS
Brand loyalty appears relatively low
Figure 48: Baking mix purchase reasons, September 2015
Flavor key for Millennials
Figure 49: Baking mix purchase reasons – Flavor and appearance, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
PANCAKE/WAFFLE MIX PURCHASE REASONS
Preferred brands likely to motivate pancake/waffle mix purchases
Figure 50: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Ingredients and brand, September 2015
Millennials motivated by premium ingredients, healthy, organic
Figure 51: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Health-related, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Premium, healthy products likely to appeal to Hispanics
Figure 52: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Health-related, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORS TOWARD BAKING MIXES
Scratch/homemade appeals for a range of reasons
Figure 53: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes, September 2015
Millennials focus on social/fun aspect of baking but may opt for scratch
Figure 54: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Social/enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Despite enjoying baking, many Hispanics may find reasons not to
Figure 55: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Taste, time, and guilt, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 56: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of baking supplies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast bread and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of frosting, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of other baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Retail channels
Figure 64: Total US retail sales of baking mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 65: Total US retail sales of baking mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Natural supermarket sales
Figure 66: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Oct. 6, 2013-Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 67: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 68: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by segment and organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 69: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by brand positioning, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 70: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by type*, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Baking supplies
Figure 71: MULO sales of baking supplies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Bread and cookie mixes
Figure 72: MULO sales of brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Cake and pastry mixes
Figure 73: MULO sales of cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Frosting
Figure 74: MULO sales of frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Pancake/French toast/waffle mixes
Figure 75: MULO sales of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Other baking mixes
Figure 76: MULO sales of other baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
CHAID Analysis methodology
Figure 77: Change in baking habits – CHAID – Table output, September 2015
Experian Simmons analysis
Pancake/waffle mixes
Figure 78: Household use of dry pancake/waffle mixes, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 79: Brands of dry pancake/waffle mixes used, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 80: Number of packages of dry pancake/waffle mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
Dry cake mix
Figure 81: Household use of dry cake mix, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 82: Brands of dry cake mix used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 83: Brands of dry cake mix used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 84: Number of packages of dry cake mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
Dry brownie mixes
Figure 85: Household use of dry brownie mixes, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 86: Brands of dry brownie mix used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 87: Brands of dry brownie mix used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 88: Number of packages of dry brownie mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
Other baking mixes
Figure 89: Household use of other baking mixes (including bread mixes), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 90: What other baking mixes are used for, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 91: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 92: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 93: Number of packages of other baking mixes used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
Baking chips and pieces
Figure 94: Household use of baking chips and pieces, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 95: Flavors of baking chips and pieces used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 96: Brands of baking chips and pieces used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 97: Brands of baking chips and pieces used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 98: Number of packages of baking chips and pieces used by entire household in last 12 months, July 2014-September 2015
Frosting
Figure 99: Household use of frosting (store-bought), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 100: Types of frosting used in household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 101: Brands of frosting used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 102: Number of cans/packages of frosting used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015

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