Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Increased growth expected for in-store bakeries
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2010-20
- Desserts dominate in-store bakeries
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- Figure 2: Total estimated 2015 US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, in millions (% change from 2013)
- In-store bakeries face competition from their own stores
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- Figure 3: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
- The opportunities
- Ethnic options could lure younger consumers to the in-store bakery
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- Figure 4: Products for in-store bakeries, by generation, March 2015
- Portion control presents potential for in-store bakeries
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- Figure 5: Products for in-store bakeries, by presence/age of children in household, March 2015
- Local resonates most strongly with Millennials
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- Figure 6: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by generation, March 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- In-store bakeries projected to grow through 2020
- Desserts dominate in in-store bakeries
- Breakfast starts strong
Market Size and Forecast
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- Increased growth rate projected for in-store bakeries
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Desserts continue category dominance
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- Figure 9: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Beginning with breakfast
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- Figure 10: Total estimated 2015 US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, in millions (% change from 2013)
- In-store bakeries rise along with sales
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- Figure 11: Total number of in-store bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2008-13
Market Perspective
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- Battling stand-alone bakeries’ higher quality perception
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- Figure 12: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
- At-home baking offers less-expensive, though somewhat less-convenient alternative
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- Figure 13: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – Once a month or more, by age, June 2014
Market Factors
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- In-store for households with children
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- Figure 14: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Income for in-store
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- Figure 15: Real disposable personal income, updated March 10, 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Scratch-made options add fresher appeal
- Health translates into less gluten, sugar, and portion size
- Organic growth
What’s Working?
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- Scratch-made at Costco
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- Figure 16: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by generations, March 2015
- Health cues prompt Wegmans’ bakery additions
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- Figure 17: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by age groups, March 2015
- Fresh & Easy organic options
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- Figure 18: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by age groups, March 2015
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- In-store bakeries resonate with larger households
- Natural, mass merchandisers have room to grow their in-store bakeries
- In-store bakery insights of interest to consumers
In-store Bakeries More Popular than Stand-alone Bakeries
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- In-store bakeries still fall short of supermarket aisle sales
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- Figure 19: Purchase of bakery items, March 2015
Family Size and In-store Bakery Purchase
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- Larger households turn to in-store bakeries
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- Figure 20: Purchase of bakery items, by number of children under age 18 in household, March 2015
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- Figure 21: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by number of children under 18 in household, March 2015
Freshness Differentiates In-store Bakeries from the Supermarket Aisle
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- Fresh appeal for in-store bakeries
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- Figure 22: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, by generations, March 2015
Room for Growth in Non-supermarket In-store Bakeries
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- Natural, mass merchandisers fall short of supermarket in-store bakeries
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- Figure 23: Purchase location for select bakery items, March 2015
Unique Items’ Potential as a Draw
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- New and different items could lure those who do not think about the in-store bakery
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- Figure 24: Reasons for not purchasing from in-store bakeries, March 2015
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- Figure 25: Reasons for not purchasing from in-store bakeries, March 2015
Breakfast, Ethnic Items of Particular Interest to Millennials
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- Breakfast offerings will have to bear value/price in mind, however
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- Figure 26: Products for in-store bakeries, by generation, March 2015
In-store Bakery Product Needs
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- High fiber and portion control would help consumers help themselves
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- Figure 27: Products for in-store bakeries, by presence/age of children in household, March 2015
Health of Relatively Little Importance among In-store Bakery Offerings
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- Can in-store bakeries merge health, convenience, and indulgence?
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- Figure 28: Products for in-store bakeries, by household income, March 2015
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- Figure 29: Products for in-store bakeries, by generation, March 2015
Bakery Personnel Can Be an In-store Bakery Selling Point
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- Consumers looking for in-store bakery insight
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- Figure 30: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by race and Hispanic origin, March 2015
Features of the Ideal In-store Bakery
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- Locally sourced ingredients resonate with more than half of all consumers
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- Figure 31: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by generation, March 2015
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 32: Consumers of in-store bakeries, March 2015
- Group one: Seeking something special
- Opportunities
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- Figure 33: Reason for purchase from in-store bakeries, any important, by target group, March 2015
- Group two: All about indulgence
- Opportunities
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- Figure 34: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by target groups, March 2015
- Group three: Getting guidance
- Opportunities
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- Figure 35: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by target groups, March 2015
- Group four: Happily healthy
- Opportunities
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- Figure 36: Important features of in-store bakeries, any important, by target groups, March 2015
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 38: Number of in-store bakeries and average weekly sales per store, 2008-13
- Figure 39: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013 and 2015
- Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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