Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee houses and donut shops at current prices, 2009-19
- Market drivers
- Competitive context
- The consumer
- Consumers most enjoy BOGO options
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- Figure 2: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, September 2014
- Affordable options most important consideration
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- Figure 3: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, September 2014
- Parents want a variety of healthier options, tying into Millennial values
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- Figure 4: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer attitudes, by presence of children in household, September 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How to address consumer concerns about eating more healthfully?
- The issues
- The implications
- How to cater to those worried about ingesting excess caffeine?
- The issues
- The implications
- How to continue to appeal to price-sensitive consumers, as commodity prices rise?
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Mood to Order
- Trend: The Big Issue
- Trend: The Nouveau Poor
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Market size and forecast
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- Figure 5: Total US revenues and forecast of coffee houses and donut shops, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of coffee houses and donut shops, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee houses and donut shops at current prices, 2009-19
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Drought and dwindling coffee supplies results in rising prices
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- Figure 8: Monthly average price for raw coffee supplies, January 2014-September 2014
- Consumers still cautious with spending
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- Figure 9: Consumer confidence index, January 2004-March 2014
- Millennials love coffee, but are price-conscious
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- Figure 10: US population, by generation share, 2014
- The US population is more multicultural, and Hispanics like coffee
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- Figure 11: Total US population growth trends, by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- A wider choice of home-brewed coffees at home
- Convenience stores improve freshly prepared foods and coffee
- Consumers turning away from soda; seek interesting beverages
- Coffee as a destination, not an afterthought
- More supermarkets and other retailers offering in-house coffee bars
- Overseas competition comes to the US
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- Selling foodservice coffee brands at retail
- Celebrating holidays with fun contests and freebies
- Tapping into consumer desire for yearly traditions and nostalgia
- Using technology to tailor the coffee house experience and cut down on wait times
- Focusing on corporate responsibility initiatives
Menu Analysis
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- Lattes lead as most popular coffee beverage type in all restaurant segments
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- Figure 12: Top coffee beverage types on LSR restaurant menus, by incidence, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Consumers like seasonal flavors
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- Figure 13: Top coffee flavors on LSR restaurant menus, by incidence, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Increasingly educated consumers will focus on coffee calorie content
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- Figure 14: average number of calories in a medium-sized coffee on LSR menus, by type, Q3 2014
- Figure 15: average number of calories in a medium-sized coffee on LSR menus, by flavor, Q3 2014
- International demand goes up while supplies dwindle, raising coffee prices
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- Figure 16: average price of a medium-sized coffee on LSR menus, by type, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Social Media – LSR Coffee Houses
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- Key findings
- Market overview
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 17: Key social media metrics, Nov. 2014
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 18: Brand usage and awareness for select LSR coffee houses, Sept. 2014
- Interactions with coffee houses
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- Figure 19: Interactions with select LSR coffee houses, Sept. 2014
- Leading online campaigns
- Seasonality and special events
- Partnerships
- Giveaways
- What we think
- Online conversations
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- Figure 20: Online conversations for select coffee houses, by week, Nov. 17, 2013-Nov. 16,2014
- Where are people talking about regarding coffee houses?
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- Figure 21: Online conversations for select coffee houses, by page type, Nov. 17, 2013-Nov. 16, 2014
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 22: Topics of conversation among select coffee house brands, Nov. 17, 2013-Nov. 16,2014
Correspondence Analysis – LSR: Coffee Houses – December 2014
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- Methodology
- Coffee houses and donut shops must focus on better pricing and healthier options in order to expand past breakfast
- The data
- The issues
- The implications
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- Figure 23: Correspondence Analysis, December 2014
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- Figure 24: Coffee Houses and Donut Shops Usage, by Daypart, December 2014
Consumer Data – Overview
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- Key points
- Coffee-house patrons preparing food at home more than previous year
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- Figure 25: Coffee houses and donut shops – Changes in behavior, September 2014
- Consumers say they want healthier options and seek innovations in price
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- Figure 26: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer attitudes, September 2014
- Consumers want affordable options and BOGOs
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- Figure 27: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, September 2014
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- Figure 28: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, September 2014
- Most consumers still order in person
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- Figure 29: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, September 2014
- Consumers more likely to consume fast food purchases outside the home
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- Figure 30: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by Consumption place, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Daypart
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- Key points
- Visits decline throughout the day; snacks offer an opportunity
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- Figure 31: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by daypart, September 2014
- Breakfast
- Those aged 25-34 more likely to patronize coffee houses/donut shops at breakfast
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- Figure 32: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by age, September 2014
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- Figure 33: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by household income, September 2014
- Those in Northeast prefer fast food coffee chains for breakfast, while those in rural locations least prefer them
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- Figure 34: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by region, September 2014
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- Figure 35: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by area, September 2014
- Lunch
- Men more likely to visit during lunch, while those 65+ less likely
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- Figure 36: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Lunch, by gender, September 2014
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- Figure 37: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Lunch, by age, September 2014
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- Figure 38: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Lunch, by household income, September 2014
- Snacking
- Older groups snack least and iGeneration/Millennials like to snack in coffee house chains
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- Figure 39: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Any snack, by generations, September 2014
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- Figure 40: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Any snack, by age, September 2014
- Blacks and Hispanics have lowest usage rates for snacks
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- Figure 41: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Any snack, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
- Visits to coffee houses for snacks highest in the West; Northeast likes fast food coffee chains
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- Figure 42: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Any snack, by region, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Order Types
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- Key points
- Those who drive-thru want to save, and those who choose delivery want all restaurant options
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- Figure 43: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by order types, September 2014
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- Figure 44: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by order types, September 2014
- iGeneration/Millennials use technology to order, while Baby Boomers order in person and use drive-thru
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- Figure 45: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, by generations, September 2014
- Consumers seeking ways to save time during work day
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- Figure 46: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, by coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, September 2014
- Urbanites use a variety of ordering methods, while those in rural areas prefer drive-thru
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- Figure 47: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, by area, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Gender
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- Key points
- Women on the go, while men eat at work and dine-in
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- Figure 48: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by gender, September 2014
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- Figure 49: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, by gender, September 2014
- Men interested in adding healthy ingredients, while women want more healthy options
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- Figure 50: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer attitudes, by gender, September 2014
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- Figure 51: Coffee houses and donut shops – Changes in behavior (more), by gender, September 2014
- Women like coupons and rewards programs on mobile apps and smartphones
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- Figure 52: Coffee houses and donut shops – deals, by gender, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Age
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- Key points
- Donut chain usage increases with age, as does ordering to-go in person at the restaurant
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- Figure 53: Coffee houses and donut shops - usage, by age, September 2014
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- Figure 54: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, by age, September 2014
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- Figure 55: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, by age, September 2014
- All age groups most interested in BOGOs; interest in health and customization declines with age
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- Figure 56: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by age, September 2014
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- Figure 57: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by age, September 2014
- Those in 25-34 age group show most concern about caffeine intake
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- Figure 58: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer attitudes, by age, September 2014
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- Figure 59: Coffee house and donut shop usage, by age, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Generation
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- Key points
- iGeneration/Millennials most likely to be concerned about portion sizes
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- Figure 60: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by generations, September 2014
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- Figure 61: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer attitudes, by generations, September 2014
- Price a concern to iGeneration/Millennials
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- Figure 62: Coffee houses and donut shops – Changes in behavior (more), by generations, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Income
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- Key points
- Those in $75K-99.9K range are increasing visits and frequenting more sit-down restaurants
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- Figure 63: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by household income, September 2014
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- Figure 64: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, by household income, September 2014
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- Figure 65: Coffee houses and donut shops – Changes in behavior (more), by household income, September 2014
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- Figure 66: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by household income, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Race and Hispanics
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- Key points
- Blacks prefer donut chains, while Hispanics visit fast food chains
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- Figure 67: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
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- Figure 68: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
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- Figure 69: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
- Hispanics interested in healthy drinks and Blacks preparing more food at home
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- Figure 70: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
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- Figure 71: Coffee houses and donut shops – Changes in behavior (more), by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Parents
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- Key points
- Parents least likely to place to-go orders in person
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- Figure 72: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by presence of children in household, September 2014
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- Figure 73: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, by presence of children in household, September 2014
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- Figure 74: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, by presence of children in household, September 2014
- Those with kids want and need more incentives and variety
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- Figure 75: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer attitudes, by presence of children in household, September 2014
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- Figure 76: Coffee houses and donut shops – Changes in behavior (more), by presence of children in household, September 2014
- Those without children want printed coupons and discounts for special groups
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- Figure 77: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by presence of children in household, September 2014
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- Figure 78: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by presence of children in household, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Region
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- Key points
- Those in the West favor coffee-house chains, while those in the Northeast like fast food coffee chains
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- Figure 79: Coffee house and donut shop usage, by region, September 2014
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- Figure 80: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by region, September 2014
- Midwesterners like BOGOs
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- Figure 81: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by region, September 2014
- Those in West looking for freshness, while Northeast not as focused on price
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- Figure 82: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by region, September 2014
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- Figure 83: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer attitudes, by region, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Area
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- Key points
- Urbanites enjoy a wide variety of choices and those in rural areas most enjoy BOGOs
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- Figure 84: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by area, September 2014
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- Figure 85: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, by area, September 2014
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- Figure 86: Coffee houses and donut shops – Changes in behavior (more), by area, September 2014
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- Figure 87: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by area, September 2014
- Those in rural areas want affordable options, urbanites want special dietary options
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- Figure 88: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by area, September 2014
Consumer Data – By Repertoire Analysis
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- Key points
- The more types of ordering methods consumers use, the more likely they visit a variety of coffee houses/donut shops
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- Figure 89: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by repertoire of ordering method in coffee houses and donut shops, September 2014
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- Figure 90: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by repertoire of ordering method in coffee houses and donut shops, September 2014
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- Figure 91: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, by repertoire of ordering method in coffee houses and donut shops, September 2014
Appendix – By Consumption Place
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- Figure 92: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, September 2014
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Appendix – By Ordering Method
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- Figure 93: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer Attitudes, by order types, September 2014
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Appendix – By Gender
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- Figure 94: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by gender, September 2014
- Figure 95: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Daytime snack, by gender, September 2014
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- Figure 96: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Any snack, by gender, September 2014
- Figure 97: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Dinner, by gender, September 2014
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- Figure 98: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by gender, September 2014
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Appendix – By Age/Generation
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- Figure 99: Coffee houses and donut shops – Changes in behavior (more), by age, September 2014
- Figure 100: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, by generations, September 2014
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- Figure 101: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by generations, September 2014
- Figure 102: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by household income, September 2014
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Appendix – By Income
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- Figure 103: Coffee house and donut shop usage, by household income, September 2014
- Figure 104: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, by household income, September 2014
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- Figure 105: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by household income, September 2014
- Figure 106: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer Attitudes, by household income, September 2014
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Appendix – By Race/Hispanic Origin
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- Figure 107: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
- Figure 108: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Lunch, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
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- Figure 109: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
- Figure 110: Coffee houses and donut shops – Deals, by Hispanic origin, September 2014
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- Figure 111: Coffee houses and donut shops – Drivers, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2014
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Appendix – By Area
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- Figure 112: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Daytime snack, by area, September 2014
- Figure 113: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Lunch, by area, September 2014
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- Figure 114: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Any snack, by area, September 2014
- Figure 115: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumer Attitudes, by area, September 2014
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Appendix – By Region
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- Figure 116: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Daytime snack, by region, September 2014
- Figure 117: Coffee houses and donut shops – Ordering method, by region, September 2014
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- Figure 118: Coffee houses and donut shops – Consumption place, by region, September 2014
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Appendix – By Parents
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- Figure 119: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Breakfast, by presence of children in household, September 2014
- Figure 120: Coffee houses and donut shops usage, – Daytime snack, by presence of children in household, September 2014
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- Figure 121: Coffee house and donut shop usage, by presence of children in household, September 2014
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Appendix – By Usage
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- Figure 122: Coffee house and donut shop usage, September 2014
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Appendix – Social Media
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 123: Brand usage or awareness, September 2014
- Figure 124: Starbucks, September 2014
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- Figure 125: Dunkin’ Donuts, September 2014
- Figure 126: Krispy Kreme, September 2014
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- Figure 127: McDonald’s McCafé, September 2014
- Figure 128: Peet’s, September 2014
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- Figure 129: Tim Hortons, September 2014
- Activities done
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- Figure 130: Activities done, September 2014
- Figure 131: Starbucks – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 132: Starbucks – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
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- Figure 133: Starbucks – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 134: Starbucks – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
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- Figure 135: Dunkin’ Donuts – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 136: Dunkin’ Donuts – Activities done –I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
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- Figure 137: Dunkin’ Donuts – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 138: Dunkin’ Donuts – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
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- Figure 139: Krispy Kreme – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 140: Krispy Kreme – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
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- Figure 141: Krispy Kreme – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 142: Krispy Kreme – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
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- Figure 143: McDonald’s McCafé – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 144: McDonald’s McCafé – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
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- Figure 145: McDonald’s McCafé – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 146: McDonald’s McCafé – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
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- Figure 147: Tim Hortons – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, September 2014
- Figure 148: Tim Hortons – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, September 2014
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 149: Key social media metrics for select coffee houses, Nov. 2014
- Online conversations
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- Figure 150: Online conversations for select coffee houses, by week, Nov. 17, 2013-Nov. 16,2014
Appendix – Trade Associations
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