- Contents
- *Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
What you need to know
US retail sales of chocolate confectionery posted another year of gains in 2013. The category benefits from a high rate of penetration and a strong and growing snack culture in the US. Chocolate confectionery is viewed as an affordable indulgence, and maintained engagement among its consumer base through the economic downturn and into the period of recovery.
Sales of bars/bags/boxes 3.5 oz. or more drive category sales, and achieved a dollar growth of 28% from 2008-13 to reach a 40.7% share. Gift box and sugar-free chocolate sales struggled in 2013. The gift box segment may suffer competition from premium bar offerings that make for high-quality gifts on their own.
Mintel forecasts chocolate confectionery sales will grow another 14% from 2013-18 (2% when adjusted for inflation). The slowed rate of growth can be attributed to a mature category that can do little to add consumers. Reduced consumption due to health concerns, an expanding array of snack offerings may also explain a slowdown.
While consumers exhibit some degree of tolerance when it comes to price increases, 43% of chocolate buyers say they would trade down to lower-priced options if the price of the products they typically buy increased by 25%. What’s more, 21% said they would buy less chocolate candy altogether if hit with such an increase. The industry will need to wisely assess options for dealing with rising commodities costs.
This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Chocolate Confectionery – US, April 2013, April 2012, July 2008, as well as Seasonal Chocolate – US, August 2011.
Definition
For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions:
This report covers chocolate confectionery products including those in bar, bag, and box form, and those sold year-round or seasonally for holidays. Primarily this includes chocolate that is sold in grocery outlets, such as supermarkets (conventional and natural), mass merchandisers, drug and convenience stores. However, the report also covers chocolate confectionery that is sold in specialty chocolate shops, such as Godiva, Lindt, Neuhaus, and Ghirardelli.
For purposes of this report, Mintel has segmented the chocolate confectionery market as follows:
Bars/bags/boxes weighing less than 3.5 oz. – includes novelty candies; excludes seasonal candies
Bars/bags/boxes weighing 3.5 oz. or more – excludes seasonal candies
Seasonal – chocolate confections marketed for a specific holiday (eg Halloween, Easter)
Snack size – also known as fun size, sold in multi-count bags/boxes
Gift boxes – a variety of chocolates packaged in a box with most or all of the individual pieces presented unwrapped; excludes gift-boxed seasonal chocolates
Sugar free – chocolate confectionery sweetened with sugar alcohol or a sugar substitute
Value figures throughout this report are at retail selling prices (rsp) excluding sales tax unless otherwise stated.
Sales data
Market Size and Forecast: Total retail sales based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; USDA Economic Research Service.
Segment Performance: Total retail sales based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; USDA Economic Research Service.
Retail Channels: Based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; USDA Economic Research Service; except supermarket and drugstore sales, which are based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews.
Leading Companies and Brand Analysis: Based on MULO sales data from Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews. MULO is defined as Multi Outlet, representative of the following channels: total US Grocery, Mass, Total U.S. Drug, Total Walmart, Dollar, Military, and Club. Note that the values shown in this section differ from the Market Size/Forecast and Segment Performance sections of this report. Companies and brands sales data encompasses only sales through MULO channels, while Market Size/Forecast and Segment sales cover the entire retail market.
Consumer survey data
For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through GMI to explore consumer consumption of attitudes and behaviors toward chocolate confectionery. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted Feb. 18-24, 2014, among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.
Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally representative of the US adult population using the internet. Mintel also slightly over-samples, relative to the population, respondents that are Hispanic or Black to ensure an adequate representation of these groups in our survey results and to allow for more precise parameter estimates from our reported findings.
Please note that Mintel surveys are conducted online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in the survey results.
Mintel also has analyzed data from Experian Marketing Services, using the Simmons NCS (National Consumer Study), the Simmons NHCS (National Hispanic Consumer Study), the Simmons Teen Study, and the Simmons Kids Study.
The Experian Marketing Services/Simmons NCS/NHCS was carried out during July 2012-September 2013, and the results are based on the sample of 24,219adults aged 18+, with results weighted to represent the US adult population. The Simmons Teens Study was conducted during May 2012-June 2013 and based on a sample of 1,886 teens aged 12-17, with results weighted to represent the US teen population. The Simmons Kids Study was conducted during May 2012-June 2013 and based on a sample of 2,147 kids aged 6-11, with results weighted to represent the US kid population.
While race and Hispanic origin are separate demographic characteristics, Mintel often compares them to each other. Please note that the responses for race (White, Black, Asian, Native American, or other race) will overlap those that also are Hispanic, because Hispanics can be of any race.
In addition to quantitative consumer research, Mintel also conducted an online discussion group among a demographically mixed group of 21 adults aged 18+. This discussion group was asynchronous (ie, not run in real time), functioning like a blog or bulletin board, with questions remaining posted for a predetermined period of time. This method allows participants to respond reflectively, at their leisure, or to log off to think about any issues raised, and return later to respond. Participants were recruited from GMI’s online consumer panel. All quotes are included verbatim, and as such, include typos and other grammatical errors as they originally appeared.
Abbreviations
The following is a list of abbreviations used in this report:
| BFY | Better for you |
| CPI | Consumer Price Index |
| GMO | Genetically modified organism |
| GNPD | Global New Products Database |
| NCA | National Confectioners Association |
| NCS/NHCS | National Consumer Study/National Hispanic Consumer Study (Experian Marketing Services) |
| NRF | National Retail Federation |
| rsp | Retail selling price |
| : | : |
| : | : |
Generations are discussed within this report, and they are defined as:
| World War II/Swing generations | Members of the WWII Generation were born in 1932 or before and are aged 82 or older in 2014. Members of the Swing Generation were born from 1933 to 1945 and are aged 69-81 in 2014. |
| Baby Boomers | The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, Baby Boomers are between the ages of 50 and 68. |
| Generation X | The generation born between 1965 and 1976. In 2014, Gen Xers are between the ages of 38 and 49. |
| Millennials* | Born between 1977 and 1994, Millennials are aged 20 to 37 in 2014. |
| iGeneration | Born between 1995 and 2007, members of iGen are aged 7-19 in 2014. |
| Emerging generation | The newest generation began in 2008 as the annual number of births declined sharply with the recession. In 2014 members of this as-yet-unnamed generation are younger than 7. |
* also known as Generation Y or Echo Boomers
In order to provide an inflation-adjusted price value for markets, Mintel uses the CPI to deflate current prices. The CPI is defined as follows:
| CPI | The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI and its components are typically used to adjust other economic series for price changes and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars. Examples of series adjusted by the CPI include retail sales, hourly, and weekly earnings, and components of the national income and product accounts. In addition, and in Mintel reports, the CPI is used as a deflator of the value of the consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. The purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar measures the change in the value to the consumer of goods and services that a dollar will buy at different dates. The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase, at today’s prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period. It is also the best measure to use to translate retail sales into real or inflation-free dollars. Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definition. |
