Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Consumer research
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail sales of all chocolate, 2005-15
- Market factors
- Rising cocoa prices are a key concern for the market
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- Figure 2: Monthly averages of daily prices per tonne, cocoa, January 2005-January 2011
- Rising numbers of 25-34-year-olds is good news for chocolate
- Health concerns affect the market
- Companies, brands and innovation
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- Figure 3: Manufacturers’ value shares in the UK chocolate market (retail sales), 2010
- The consumer
- Reaction to price increases
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- Figure 4: Consumer reaction to the prospect of rising chocolate prices in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
- Chocolate preferences
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- Figure 5: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, February 2011
- Chocolate in moderation
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- Did rising commodity prices impact market growth in 2010?
- Is chocolate a priority for households in austerity Britain?
- How can brands maintain consumer trust in the face of price rises?
- How can product innovation curb cutting-back by health-conscious consumers?
- How have brands capitalised on the ‘staying-in’ opportunity?
- Does fair trade really engage consumers?
Future Opportunities
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- Trend: Prove It
- Trend: Empowered Seniors
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Tapping into the ‘nights-in’ opportunity
- Obesity and growth of the ‘slimming’ population
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- Figure 6: Type of food eaten, December 2010
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- Figure 7: Trends in healthy lifestyles and eating/snacking habits, 2006-10
- Go lighter or go smaller
- Are children still the core market?
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- Figure 8: Trend in snacks/nibbles eaten, according to % point change, 2006-10
- Change4life campaign
- Sustainability is the key buzz word for ingredients and packaging
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- Figure 9: Agreement with ethical lifestyle statements, 2006-10
- Investing in sustainable cocoa farming
- Packaging reductions to improve the carbon footprint
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Is chocolate a priority in austerity Britain?
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- Figure 10: Gfk NOP Consumer confidence index, January 2008-February 2011
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- Figure 11: Extra money spent on, January 2011
- Figure 12: Eating habit trends, Dec 2008-February 2011
- Cause for alarm as cocoa prices continue to rise
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- Figure 13: Monthly averages of daily prices per tonne, cocoa, January 2005-January 2011
- How will population trends affect the confectionery market?
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- Figure 14: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2005-15
- Figure 15: UK households, by size, 2005-15
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Adult snacking habits
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- Figure 16: Frequency and place of snacking, March 2010
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- Figure 17: Top indulgent snacks and their market sizes, 2006-10
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- New product launch activity regained its momentum in 2010
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- Figure 18: New product launch trends in the chocolate confectionery category*, 2006-10
- Sharing formats
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- Figure 19: New product launch trends in the chocolate confectionery category*, by sub-category, 2006-10
- Figure 20: Examples of non-individually wrapped chocolate pieces, 2010-11
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- Figure 21: Examples of chocolate tablets, 2010-11
- Cadbury reinforces its Olympics sponsorship on all packaging
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- Figure 22: New product launch trends in the chocolate confectionery category*, by company, 2006-10
- Own-label activity
- Environmentally-friendly packaging comes to the fore
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- Figure 23: New product launch trends in the chocolate confectionery category*, by product claim, 2006-10
- Few new products target children directly
Market Value and Forecast
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- Key points
- Chocolate confectionery hit by cost increases and growth in healthy eating
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- Figure 24: UK retail sales of all chocolate, 2005-15
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- Figure 25: UK retail sales of chocolate, by sector, 2006-10
- Premium brands give fresh impetus to boxed chocolates
- Spring brings extended opportunities for Easter sales
- Future outlook
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- Figure 26: Forecast of UK retail sales of all chocolate, 2005-15
- Segmentation
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- Figure 27: Forecast of UK retail sales of chocolate confectionery, 2005-15
- Figure 28: UK retail sales of chocolate confectionery, 2005-15
- Figure 29: Forecast of UK retail sales of boxed and seasonal chocolate, 2005-15
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- Figure 30: UK retail sales of boxed and seasonal chocolate, 2005-15
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- ‘Me-time’ indulgence has become ‘our time’
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- Figure 31: UK retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by sector, 2006-10
- Countlines step up innovation to distract from rising prices
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- Figure 32: UK retail sales of moulded bar chocolate, by size and positioning, 2006-10
Market Share
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- Key points
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- Figure 33: Manufacturers’ value shares in the UK chocolate market (retail sales), 2008-10
- Competition for the ‘take a break’ market
- Ferrero sees scope for growth in its Kinder brand
- Own-label capitalises on consumer cutbacks
- Hershey widens its distribution in the UK
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- Figure 34: UK Leading brands purchased in the UK chocolate market, 2008-10
- Mars invests in the ‘lighter’ route to success
- The £2m battle’s on for the female vote
Companies and Products
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- Ferrero
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- Figure 35: Major product launches in the UK by Ferrero UK, July 2009-January 2011
- Kraft Foods UK
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- Figure 36: Major product launches by Kraft Foods UK, July 2009-January 2011
- Mars UK Ltd
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- Figure 37: New product launches in the UK by Mars UK, January 2009-January 2011
- Nestlé UK and Ireland Ltd
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- Figure 38: Major product launches in the UK by Nestlé UK, July 2009-January 2011
- Thorntons
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- Figure 39: Major product launches in the UK by Thorntons, July 2009-January 2011
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards and usage of chocolate brands, January 2011
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 41: Attitudes by chocolate brand, January 2011
- Brand personality
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- Figure 42: Chocolate brand personality – macro image, January 2011
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- Figure 43: Chocolate brand personality – micro image, January 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand experience
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- Figure 44: Chocolate brand usage, January 2011
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- Figure 45: Satisfaction with various chocolate brands, %, January 2011
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- Figure 46: Consideration of chocolate brands, January 2011
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- Figure 47: Consumer perceptions of current chocolate brand performance, January 2011
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- Figure 48: Chocolate brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, January 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 49: Chocolate brand index, January 2011
- Figure 50: Chocolate brand index vs. recommendation, January 2011
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 51: Target groups, January 2011
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- Figure 52: Chocolate brand usage, by target groups, January 2011
- Group One – The Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – The Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Above the line spend rises by 23% in 2010
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- Figure 53: Main monitored media advertising expenditure (bars and countlines) on chocolate confectionery, 2007-10*
- Figure 54: Main monitored advertising spend on chocolate bars and countlines by top ten manufacturers in the chocolate confectionery category, 2007-10*
- Mars relies on the beautiful game to make its countlines more attractive
- Green & Black’s doubles its spend for 2011
Channels to Market
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- Key points
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- Figure 55: UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionery, by outlet type (excluding seasonal and boxed chocolate), 2006-10
- Importance of impulse
- Chocolate has mixed results on the high street
The Consumer – Trends in Chocolate Consumption
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- Key points
- Despite competition from other snacks, obesity concerns and the cost of living, chocolate consumption remains steady
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- Figure 56: Trends in frequency of eating chocolate bars and other chocolate items (excluding boxed chocolates), 2006-10
- Room for growth
- Gaps in the market
- Shrinking children’s market
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- Figure 57: Trends in consumption of chocolate, 7-16-year-olds, 2006-10
Personal and Gift Preferences when Buying Chocolate
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- Key points
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- Figure 58: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, February 2011
- Because I’m worth it...
- Chocolate faux pas
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- Figure 59: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else in the last 12 months, February 2011
- Seasonal and gift occasions
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- Figure 60: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by gender, according to +/- average response, February 2011
- Figure 61: People bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by gender, according to +/- average response, February 2011
- Enthusiasm for seasonal and boxed chocolates
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- Figure 62: Repertoire of people bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for and types of occasions, February 2011
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- Figure 63: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by gender, according to +/- average response by demographic, February 2011
Attitudes Towards Chocolate Confectionery
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- Key points
- Dark vs milk – style over substance?
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- Figure 64: Dark vs milk – Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
- Chocolate is considered ok in moderation for children
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- Figure 65: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
- A stubborn third of consumers remain unconvinced about fair trade chocolate
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- Figure 66: Level of agreement with attitudes towards fair trade chocolate confectionery, %, February 2011
Consumer Attitudes Towards Price Increases
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- Key points
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- Figure 67: Consumer reaction to the prospect of rising chocolate prices in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
- Attitudes towards pack size reduction – honesty is the best policy
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- Figure 68: Consumer reaction to the prospect of smaller pack sizes in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
Target Groups
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- Key points
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- Figure 69: Target groups based on consumer reactions to rising chocolate prices, February 2011
- Switchers
- Who are they more likely to be?
- Current chocolate buying habits
- Die-Hard Chocoholics
- Who are they more likely to be?
- Current chocolate buying habits
- Begrudging But Still Buying
- Who are they more likely to be?
- Current chocolate buying habits
- Size Matters
- Who are they more likely to be?
- Current chocolate buying habits
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 70: Eat chocolate, 2006-10
- Figure 71: Number of packets of chocolate eaten last week, 2006-10
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- Figure 72: Frequency of eating chocolates, 2006-10
- Figure 73: Types of chocolates eaten, 2009-10
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- Figure 74: Who buys chocolate, 2006-10
- Figure 75: Where chocolates eaten, 2006-10
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- Figure 76: Trends in body mass index (BMI) of adults in England, by gender, 2006-09
- Figure 77: Trends in adults trying to slim, 2006-10
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- Figure 78: Trends in body mass index (BMI) of children in England, by gender, 2006-09
- Figure 79: Average weekly income of children aged 7-14, by gender and age, 2008-10
- Figure 80: Average weekly income of children aged 7-14, by gender and age, 2008-10
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- Figure 81: Trends in eating/snacking views of children, 2006-10
- Figure 82: How 7-10-year-olds spend their money, 2006-10
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Appendix – Market Value and Forecast
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- Figure 83: Best and worst case forecasts of UK retail value sales of all chocolate, 2010-15
- Figure 84: Best and worst case forecasts of UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionary, 2010-15
- Figure 85: Best and worst case forecasts of UK retail value sales of seasonal and boxed chocolate, 2010-15
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Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Chocolate Consumption
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- Figure 86: Trends in frequency of eating chocolate bars and other chocolate items (excluding boxed chocolates), 2006-10
- Volume Importance Index (VII) tables
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- Figure 87: Frequency of eating chocolate bars and other chocolate items (excluding boxed chocolates), by demographics, 2010
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- Figure 88: Consumption of chocolate, 7-16-year-olds, 2006-10
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Appendix – The Consumer – Personal and Gift Preferences When Buying Chocolate
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- Figure 89: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, February 2011
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- Figure 90: People bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, February 2011
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- Figure 91: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, February 2011
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- Figure 92: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, by demographics, February 2011
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- Figure 93: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
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- Figure 94: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, by types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months (cont.), February 2011
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- Figure 95: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months, by types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself or someone else, in the last 12 months (cont.), February 2011
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Price Increases
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- Figure 96: Consumer reaction to the prospect of rising chocolate prices in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
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- Figure 97: Consumer reaction to the prospect of smaller pack sizes in response to higher cocoa costs, by demographics, February 2011
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Appendix – Attitudes Towards Chocolate Confectionery
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- Figure 98: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
- Figure 99: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
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- Figure 100: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics, February 2011
- Figure 101: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics, February 2011 (continued)
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- Figure 102: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
- Figure 103: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011 (continued)
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- Figure 104: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
- Figure 105: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
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- Figure 106: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
- Figure 107: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, any agree, February 2011
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- Figure 108: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, any agree, February 2011
- Figure 109: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, any disagree, February 2011
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- Figure 110: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, any disagree, February 2011
- Figure 111: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
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- Figure 112: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery (cont.), February 2011
- Figure 113: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself, in the last 12 months, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
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- Figure 114: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself, in the last 12 months, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery (cont.), February 2011
- Figure 115: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for someone else, in the last 12 months, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
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- Figure 116: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for someone else, in the last 12 months by Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery (cont.), February 2011
- Figure 117: People bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, by demographics, February 2011
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- Figure 118: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by demographics, February 2011
- Figure 119: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by demographics (cont.), February 2011
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- Figure 120: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by people bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, February 2011
- Figure 121: Repertoire of people bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, February 2011
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- Figure 122: Repertoire of occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, February 2011
- Figure 123: Repertoire of occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by demographics, February 2011
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Appendix – Target Groups
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- Figure 124: Target groups, by demographics, February 2011
- Figure 125: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for oneself, in the last 12 months, by target groups, February 2011
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- Figure 126: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased for someone else, in the last 12 months by target groups, February 2011
- Figure 127: Consumer reaction to the prospect of rising chocolate prices in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
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- Figure 128: Consumer reaction to the prospect of smaller pack sizes in response to higher cocoa costs, February 2011
- Figure 129: Level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by level of agreement with attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2011
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- Figure 130: People bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, by target groups, February 2011
- Figure 131: Occasions bought seasonal or boxed chocolate for, by target groups, February 2011
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- Figure 132: Repertoire of people bought seasonal or boxed chocolates for, by demographics, February 2011
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