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Yellow Fats and Oils - UK - October 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Declining volumes but growing value sales in butter and spreads
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of butter and spreads, 2014-24
Oil sales boosted by extra virgin olive and rapeseed oil
Figure 2: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of edible oils, 2014-24
Declining bread sales spell bad news for butter and spreads
Scratch cooking and home baking important drivers of sales
Population growth is a key growth driver for yellow fats and oils
Companies and brands
Lurpak retains formidable lead
Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail yellow fats market (including butter, margarine and spreads, and cooking fats), by value, 2018/19*
Dip in value sales for most brands in cooking oils
Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail cooking oils market, by value, 2018/19*
Filippo Berio extends lead in olive oil segment
Figure 5: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail olive oil market, by value, 2018/19*
More plant-based butter alternatives
New recipes in spreads put focus on naturalness and less fat
New infusions add to variety in edible oils
Extra virgin and cold-pressed oils emphasise quality and purity
The consumer
Nine in 10 people buy butter or spreads
Figure 6: Types of butter and spreads bought in the last 3 months, July 2019
Eight in 10 people buy edible oils
Figure 7: Types of edible liquid oils and solid oils/fats bought in the last 3 months, July 2019
Toast, bread and sandwiches are top uses for spreads
Figure 8: How different types of yellow fats and edible oils were used in the last 3 months, July 2019
Low saturated fat top healthy factor for spreads
Figure 9: Factors judged to make a spread healthy, July 2019
Big focus on price presents challenge to oils
Figure 10: Factors considered important when buying oil, by purpose, July 2019
Need to communicate sustainability in spreads and oils
Brands should tap into interest in more flavours for cooking
Figure 11: Behaviours and attitudes towards yellow fats and oils, July 2019
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Offering a healthy, tasty and natural combination remains the big challenge for brands in spreads
The facts
The implications
Wealth of attributes can be highlighted to tap into interest in sustainability in yellow fats and oils
The facts
The implications
Flavoured oils and butters for cooking different recipes offer scope to add value to the market
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Declining volumes but growth in value sales in butter and spreads
Strong value performance of butter driven by higher prices
Growth in sales of edible oils seen in 2018
Sales boosted by extra virgin olive and rapeseed oil in 2018
Declining bread sales spell bad news for butter and spreads
Scratch cooking and home baking important drivers of sales
Commodity butter and oil prices impact on retail prices
Population growth is a key driver for yellow fats and oils
Brexit uncertainties make price trends difficult to predict
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Rise in butter prices drives growth in total sales
Figure 12: UK retail value sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2014-24*
Figure 13: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2014-24*
Butter boosts value of butter and spreads market
Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of butter and spreads, 2014-24*
Figure 15: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of butter and spreads, 2014-24*
Value sales of edible oils boosted by olive and rapeseed oil
Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils, 2014-24
Figure 17: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of edible oils, 2014-24
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Strong value performance of butter driven by higher prices
Figure 18: UK retail value and volume sales of yellow fats, by segment, 2017-19
Extra virgin and rapeseed boost 2018 sales of edible oils
Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils, by type, 2017-19
MARKET DRIVERS
Declining bread sales bad news for butter and spreads
Changing breakfast and lunch patterns impacting on demand
Scratch cooking and home baking important drivers of sales
Commodity butter and oil prices impact on retail prices
Total population growth is important for yellow fats and oils which the vast majority buy
Figure 20: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-24
Brexit uncertainties make price trends difficult to predict
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Lurpak retains its formidable lead
Clover and Utterly Butterly benefit from rising butter prices
Dip in value sales for most brands in cooking oils
Filippo Berio extends lead in olive oil segment
More plant-based butter alternatives
New recipes in spreads put focus on naturalness and less fat
Arla launches ‘Softest’ versions for Lurpak and Anchor
New infusions add to variety in edible oils
Extra virgin and cold-pressed oils emphasise quality and purity
Lurpak the most trusted brand
MARKET SHARE
Buttery spreads make biggest gains in yellow fats market
Lurpak retains its formidable lead
KKR and Saputo move into the market
Clover and Utterly Butterly benefit from rising butter prices
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market (including butter, margarine and spreads, and cooking fats), by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Dip in value sales for most brands in cooking oils
Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cooking oils market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Filippo Berio extends lead in olive oil segment
Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail olive oil market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
No dominant brands in fragmented speciality oils segment
Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail speciality oils market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Oils account for nearly two thirds of new launches
Figure 25: New product launches in the UK butter, spreads and edible oils market, by category, 2014-19
More plant-based butter alternatives
Recent launches explore unusual ingredients
Figure 26: Examples of new launches of plant-based and dairy-free butter alternatives in butter and spreads, 2018/19
New recipes in spreads put focus on naturalness and less fat
Upfield updates Flora
Clover Light introduces new recipe
Figure 27: Examples of new launches in spreads, 2018/19
Arla launches ‘Softest’ versions for Lurpak and Anchor
New launches in ghee and ghee alternatives
Figure 28: Examples of new ghee and ghee alternative launches in butter and spreads, 2018/19
New infusions add to variety in edible oils
Figure 29: Examples of new launches of infused oils, 2018/19
Blends of two different oils add differentiation
Figure 30: Examples of different blend combinations in new launches of oils, 2018/19
Extra virgin and cold-pressed oils emphasise quality and purity
Figure 31: Examples of cold-pressed and extra virgin new launches in oils, 2018/19
Launches of more niche seed oils
Figure 32: Examples of new launches in seed oils, 2018/19
Rare examples of task-specific oils
Figure 33: Examples of new launches in task-specific oils and sprays, 2018/19
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Decline in spending on main media advertising continues
Figure 34: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yellow fats and oils, 2015-19
Figure 35: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yellow fats and oils, by category, 2015-19
Arla Foods biggest spender in 2018
Figure 36: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yellow fats and oils, by advertiser, 2015-19
Anchor plays up infinite uses of product
Lurpak focuses on great-tasting food message
Flora pushes plant-based nutrition message
Return to TV advertising for Bertolli
Country Life launches digital campaign
Crisp ‘n Dry biggest advertiser in oils
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 37: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2019
Key brand metrics
Figure 38: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2019
Brand attitudes: Lurpak most worth paying more for
Figure 39: Attitudes, by brand, September 2019
Brand personality: All brands seen as accessible by most people
Figure 40: Brand personality – macro image, September 2019
Lurpak is seen as the most delicious and indulgent brand
Figure 41: Brand personality – micro image, September 2019
Brand analysis
Lurpak stands for consistently high quality
Figure 42: User profile of Lurpak, September 2019
Anchor is seen as the most traditional brand
Figure 43: User profile of Anchor, September 2019
Traditional and natural associations are key strengths for Country Life
Figure 44: User profile of Country Life, September 2019
Flora seen the most widely as healthy
Figure 45: User profile of Flora, September 2019
Clover seen most widely as a family brand
Figure 46: User profile of Clover, September 2019
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Nine in 10 people buy butter or spreads
Eight in 10 people buy edible oils
Toast, bread and sandwiches are top uses for spreads
Olive oils used most for frying, roasting and on cold food
Low saturated fat top healthy factor for spreads
All-natural ingredients are associated with health by a third
Big focus on price when buying oils
Health considerations also matter in choice of oils
Need to communicate sustainability in spreads and oils
Brands should tap into interest in more flavours for cooking
BUYING OF YELLOW FATS
Nine in 10 people buy butter or spreads
Figure 47: Types of butter and spreads bought in the last 3 months, July 2019
Nearly two in five rely on an all-round yellow fat
Figure 48: Number of different types of butter and spreads bought in the last 3 months, July 2019
Younger people more likely to buy butter
BUYING OF EDIBLE OILS
Eight in 10 buy edible oils
Figure 49: Types of edible liquid oils and solid oils/fats bought in the last 3 months, July 2019
Half of people buy more than one type of oil
Figure 50: Number of different types of edible oils bought in last 3 months, July 2019
Higher-income households more likely to buy most oils
HOW YELLOW FATS AND EDIBLE OILS ARE USED
Toast, bread and sandwiches are top uses for spreads
Figure 51: How different types of yellow fats and edible oils were used in the last 3 months, July 2019
Olive oil should focus on versatility and health messages
Cooked food and home baking offer opportunities for butter and spread brands
FACTORS MAKING A SPREAD ‘HEALTHY’
Low saturated fat top healthy factor for spreads
Half of buyers limit saturated fat in their diet on medical advice
Figure 52: Factors judged to make a spread healthy, July 2019
All-natural ingredients are associated with health by a third on health grounds
Functional health benefits also worth highlighting
FACTORS CONSIDERED IMPORTANT WHEN BUYING OIL
Big focus on price when buying oils
Figure 53: Factors considered important when buying oil, by purpose, July 2019
Health considerations matter in choice of oils
Low saturated fat is top health consideration in oils
Minority interest in the nutrients of oils
Reference to production methods and origins adds differentiation among a minority
CONSUMER BEHAVIOURS AND ATTITUDES
Need to communicate sustainability in spreads and oils
Figure 54: Behaviours and attitudes towards yellow fats and oils, July 2019
Organic seen as better for the environment by three in five
Interest in butter with milk from grass-fed cows
Brands should tap into interest in more flavours for cooking
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 55: UK retail value and volume sales of butter, 2014-19
Figure 56: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, 2014-19
Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of butter and spreads, 2019-24
Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of butter and spreads, 2014-24
Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of butter and spreads, 2019-24
Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of edible oils, 2019-24
Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of edible oils, 2014-24
Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of edible oils, 2019-24
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 63: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market (including butter, margarine and spreads, and cooking fats), by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 64: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail cooking oil market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 65: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail olive oil market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 66: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail speciality oils market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 67: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail butter market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 68: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail butter market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 69: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail margarine and spreads market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 70: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail margarine and spreads market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 71: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cooking fats market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Figure 72: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail cooking fats market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
APPENDIX – LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Figure 73: New product launches in the UK butter, margarine and spreads market, by claim (sorted by 2018), 2014-19
Figure 74: New product launches in the UK edible oils market, by claim (sorted by 2018), 2014-19
Figure 75: New product launches in the UK butter market, by claim (sorted by 2018), 2014-19
Figure 76: New product launches in the UK margarine and spreads market, by claim (sorted by 2018), 2014-19
Figure 77: New product launches in the UK butter market, by launch type, 2014-19
Figure 78: New product launches in the UK margarine and spreads market, by launch type, 2014-19
Figure 79: New product launches in the UK oils market, by launch type, 2014-19

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