Brexit: Future Hopes and Fears - Ireland - September 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Issues covered in the Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market factors
Free movement of goods important to the island of Ireland
Consumer spending falls due to Brexit worries
RoI consumers see personal finances improve; NI consumers financially insecure
Irish consumers expecting finances to improve in the year ahead despite Brexit concerns
Issues impacting companies’ Brexit preparations
The consumer
Little change seen in most consumers’ finances
Figure 1: How consumers rate their finances compared to a year ago, NI and RoI, June 2019
Groceries a key spending area for Irish consumers
Figure 2: Consumers’ spending in the last six months, NI and RoI, June 2019
Taking a holiday is a priority for consumers over the next six months
Figure 3: Consumers’ spending intentions in the next six months, NI and RoI, June 2019
Consumers think economy will be negatively impacted by Brexit
Figure 4: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, NI and RoI, June 2019
Irish consumers think it’s important to support local producers post-Brexit
Figure 5: Agreement with statements related to Brexit, NI and RoI, June 2019
What we think
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
RoI remains NI’s largest export market
Sterling continues to decline against the euro
Food prices falling in RoI, rising in NI
Irish consumers optimistic personal finances will improve
MARKET DRIVERS
UK’s departure from EU delayed by six months
Support highest for UK to retain full EU membership
Figure 6: Consumers’ hopes for the outcome of Brexit negotiations, NI and RoI, June 2019
euro continues to strengthen against Sterling
Figure 7: Exchange rates involving Sterling and euro, January 2018-July 2019
RoI remains the largest single export market for NI
Figure 8: Value of exports, by region, NI, 2016 and 2017
RoI economy continues to grow
Figure 9: Total value of imports and exports, 2017 and 2018
RoI exports most of its goods to the US
Figure 10: Top five export markets and NI, RoI, 2017 and 2018
Great Britain the main import market for RoI
Figure 11: Top five import markets and NI, RoI, 2017 and 2018
NI has highest business insolvency rate in the UK
Figure 12: Percentage increase in total number of business insolvencies since the EU referendum, UK (including NI), by region, 2016/17-2018/19
Brexit worries impact consumer spending
Figure 13: Consumer spending index, RoI, July 2018-June 2019
Food prices falling in RoI, rising in the UK/NI
Figure 14: Consumer price index vs food inflation, RoI, January 2018-June 2019
Figure 15: Consumer price index vs food inflation, UK (including NI), January 2018-June 2019
NI consumers remain fragile
Figure 16: Financial health of Irish consumers, NI, June 2018 and June 2019
Figure 17: Financial health of Irish consumers, RoI, June 2018 and June 2019
Irish consumers optimistic for the year ahead
Figure 18: How consumers expect their personal financial situation to change in the next 12 months, NI, June 2018 and June 2019
Figure 19: How consumers expect their personal financial situation to change in the next 12 months, RoI, June 2018 and June 2019
PREPARING FOR BREXIT – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Currency exchange rates benefit Charles Hurst’s cross-border sales
Dalata Hotels trading favourably but impact of exchange rate should be considered
Lakeland Dairies’ principle issue is the potential impact of tariffs
Vodafone’s Irish consumers avoid mobile roaming charges
Tesco advises October 2019 is least opportune moment for Brexit
PREPARING FOR BREXIT
Charles Hurst
Key facts
Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
How Charles Hurst is preparing for Brexit
Dalata Hotels
Key facts
Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
How the Dalata Group is preparing for Brexit
Lakeland Dairies
Key facts
Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
How Lakeland Dairies is preparing for Brexit
Vodafone
Key facts
Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
How Vodafone is preparing for Brexit
Tesco
Key facts
Impact of the UK’s (including NI) decision to leave the EU so far
How Tesco is preparing for Brexit
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Consumers’ finances remain the same as last year
Spending on food and drink for home increases
Irish consumers worried that Brexit will negatively impact economy
Supporting local food and drink producers important post-Brexit
FINANCIAL SITUATION
Most Irish consumers’ finances are the same as last year
Figure 20: How consumers rate their finances compared to a year ago, NI and RoI, June 2019
Young consumers feel better off financially
Figure 21: How consumers rate their finances compared to a year ago, by age, NI, June 2019
Figure 22: How consumers rate their finances compared to a year ago, by age, RoI, June 2019
SPENDING INTENTIONS
Consumers spending more on food and drink for home
Figure 23: Consumers’ spending in the last six months, NI and RoI, June 2019
Savings and investments a priority for Millennial spending
Figure 24: Consumers’ spending on savings and investments in the last six months, by age, NI, June 2019
Figure 25: Consumers’ spending on savings and investments in the last six months, by age, RoI, June 2019
Spending on food and drink for home increases among ABC1s
Figure 26: Consumers’ spending on food and drink for home in the last six months, by social class, NI and RoI, June 2019
Figure 27: Consumers’ spending on eating out (including takeaways) in the last six months, by social class, NI and RoI, June 2019
Irish consumers will spend ‘about the same’ on most areas
Figure 28: Consumers’ spending intentions in the next six months, NI and RoI, June 2019
Young consumers most likely to spend more on holidays
Figure 29: Consumers who expect to spend more on holidays in the next six months, by generation, NI and RoI, June 2019
Irish men planning on spending more in the next six months
Figure 30: Consumers’ spending intentions in the next six months, by gender, NI, June 2019
Figure 31: Consumers’ spending intentions in the next six months, by gender, RoI, June 2019
IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
Irish consumers more likely to be pessimistic on Brexit impact
Figure 32: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, NI and RoI, June 2019
Millennials most likely to think Brexit will have a positive economic impact
Figure 33: Consumers who think Brexit will have a positive impact on economic growth, by age, NI and RoI, June 2019
Irish men positive about economic impact of Brexit
Figure 34: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, by gender, NI, June 2019
Figure 35: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, by gender, RoI, June 2019
Young consumers optimistic on savings and investments post-Brexit
Figure 36: Consumers who think Brexit will have a positive impact on their savings and investments, by age, NI and RoI, June 2019
ATTITUDES TOWARDS BREXIT
Supporting local food producers post-Brexit important to consumers
Figure 37: Agreement with statements related to Brexit, NI and RoI, June 2019
Local food and drink appeal to women
Figure 38: Agreement with the statement ‘It will be more important to support local food/drink producers after Brexit’, by gender, NI and RoI, June 2019
Affluent NI consumers interested in holidaying outside the EU
Figure 39: Agreement with the statement ‘A holiday outside of the EU will be more attractive post-Brexit’, by social class, NI, June 2019
Figure 40: Agreement with the statement ‘A holiday in Great Britain/NI will be better value for money post-Brexit’, by social class, RoI, June 2019
Parents concerned about medicine availability post-Brexit
Figure 41: Agreement with the statement ‘Availability of certain medicines will be negatively affected by Brexit’, by presence of children in the household, NI and RoI, June 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Data sources
Generational cohort definitions
Abbreviations