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Carbonated Soft Drinks - US - April 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Overview
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2013-23
The issues
Lapsed consumers are out of the market for good
Figure 2: Increased CSD consumption motivators, January 2019
CSD brands contend with changing preferences and demographics
Figure 3: CSD attitudes, by generation, January 2019
The opportunities
Heavy users are a loyal consumer base
Figure 4: CSD attitudes, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
Keep at-risk consumers engaged with mini treats
Figure 5: Reasons for drinking CSDs, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
Craft CSDs give way to mocktails and super-premium mixers
CSD companies change with the times
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
CSD market grows on the strong performance of diet brands
CSDs contend with trendy sparkling water
Opportunity for brands to elevate the can
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
CSD sales on the upswing
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Positive growth for both regular and diet CSDs
Figure 8: Sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, 2013-23
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Sparkling water is the biggest threat to CSDs
Diversification is the name of the game
MARKET FACTORS 
A series of legal wins for big pop
Will bottled water’s packaging crisis spill over to CSDs?
Demographic changes dampen soda’s future
Figure 10: Distribution of US population by age, 2018-23
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Brands succeed by being happy and small
Craft CSDs underwhelm
Cater to the alcoholic beverage drinking occasion
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF CSDS
Most major brands enjoy sales growth
Figure 11: Multi-outlet sales of regular carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Diet CSDs stage a comeback
Figure 12: Multi-outlet sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
WHAT’S WORKING?
Coke becomes Feel Good Inc.
Figure 13: Average sentiment of Coca-Cola, across Instagram and Twitter, June 1, 2018-March 1, 2019
The diet CSD story: a name change, fun flavors, and consumers’ love of aspartame
Figure 14: Sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, 2013-18
Game on!
Thinking small
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Restaurants are dropping CSDs
Figure 15: CSDs on menus, change in incidence and penetration, Q4 2015-Q4 2018
Figure 16: AFH CSD consumption, October 2016-January 2019
Craft isn’t the CSD savior
Go for fun over health
WHAT’S NEXT?
CSDs can capitalize on falling alcohol consumption
Botanicals are an opportunity for premium CSDs
Using texture to provide experience
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Majority of consumers drink a variety of CSDs
Nothing will bring lapsed consumers back
Keep consumers engaged by embracing the treat occasion
CSD CONSUMPTION
Four out of five Americans drink CSDs
Figure 17: CSD consumption, January 2019
CSD drinker demographic profiles
Figure 18: CSD drinker demographic profile, indexed against all CSD consumers, January 2019
Figure 19: CSD drinker demographic profile, indexed against all CSD consumers, January 2019
Most consumers drink multiple CSD varieties
Figure 20: Repertoire analysis, CSD consumption, January 2019
Figure 21: Repertoire analysis, CSD consumption, by gender and age, drink four or more types of CSDs, January 2019
CSD CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY
Diet cola is the most frequently consumed CSD
Figure 22: CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
Only slight variation in heavy and infrequent CSD consumer demos
Figure 23: CSD demographic profile by frequency of consumption, indexed against all CSD consumers, January 2019
CSD FORMAT PURCHASES
Opportunity to delight with fountain drinks
Figure 24: CSD format purchases, January 2019
Figure 25: CSD format purchases, any purchase, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
REASONS FOR DRINKING CSDS
Consumers view CSDs as tasty, refreshing treats
Figure 26: Reasons for drinking CSDs, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
Figure 27: Reasons for drinking CSDs, January 2019
CSDs fulfill a variety of needs for younger men
Figure 28: Reasons for drinking CSDs, by gender and age, January 2019
REASONS FOR NOT DRINKING CSDS
Sugar is a top of mind consumer concern
Figure 29: Reasons for not drinking CSDs, January 2019
Figure 30: Figure 31: Reasons for not drinking CSDs, by age, January 2019
INCREASED CSD CONSUMPTION MOTIVATORS
Say so long to lapsed consumers
Figure 32: Increased CSD consumption motivators, January 2019
Natural CSDs can keep some planned reducers in the market
Figure 33: Increased CSD consumption motivators, by CSD attitudes, January 2019
Flavor innovation excites heavy CSD consumers
Figure 34: Increased CSD consumption motivators, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
Healthy CSD as a time saver?
Figure 35: Increased CSD consumption motivators, by food and drink shopper segmentation, January 2019
CSD FLAVOR INTEREST
Moderate interest in flavor innovation
Figure 36: CSD flavor interest, January 2019
Figure 37: CSD flavor interest, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
Hispanic and Asian consumers drive interest in CSD flavors
Figure 38: CSD flavor interest, by race/ethnicity, January 2019
CSD CRAVING SATISFIERS 
Most lapsed consumers don’t get CSD cravings
Figure 39: CSD craving satisfiers, January 2019
CSD ATTITUDES
Heavy drinkers are highly brand loyal, but some may cut their CSD consumption
Figure 40: CSD attitudes, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
Risk of iGens dropping out of the market
Figure 41: CSD attitudes, January 2019
Midwesterners least concerned with CSD healthfulness
Figure 42: CSD attitudes, by region, January 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Mintel Menu Insights
Purchase Intelligence
Mintel Market Sizes
Mintel Food and Drink shopper segmentation
Social media methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 43: Total US sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 44: Total US sales and forecast of regular carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of diet carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 46: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
Figure 47: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 48: Multi-outlet sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019

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