Pasta, Rice and Noodles - UK - February 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Rice and noodles drive value growth
Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of pasta, rice and noodles, 2013-23
Deflation in dry pasta hits value sales
Figure 2: UK retail value sales of pasta, rice and noodles, by segment, 2016-18
People limiting carbs is having a mixed impact on the market
World cuisines are a big influence on the market
Companies and brands
Napolina benefits from range development
Own-label makes value gains in rice
Batchelor’s leads in noodles
Leading three brands grow sales in pot snacks
More products reference fibre and protein
Leading manufacturers fuel activity in instant rice pots
The consumer
Vast majority of people eat pasta and rice
Figure 3: Usage of pasta, rice, noodles, couscous and grains, November 2017 and November 2018
Pasta, rice and noodle meals are widely seen as money saving
Fibre content is important but four in 10 looking for less carbs
Figure 4: Behaviours relating to pasta, rice and noodles, November 2018
Pasta buying focuses on convenience and price
Figure 5: Factors influencing choice when buying pasta, November 2018
Branded pasta faces tough battle against own-label
Figure 6: Attitudes towards pasta, November 2018
Ease of use is top consideration for rice
Figure 7: Factors influencing choice when buying rice, November 2018
Packaging improvements appeal in rice
Figure 8: Attitudes towards rice, November 2018
Noodles need to be quick to cook/prepare
Figure 9: Factors influencing choice when buying noodles, November 2018
Focus on nutrition is important for driving sales
Figure 10: Attitudes towards noodles, November 2018
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Promoting nutritional benefits will help keep carbs on the menu
The facts
The implications
Both value and added-value messages can be leveraged to encourage usage
The facts
The implications
Packaging developments for rice should focus on materials and ease of use
The facts
The implications
Focus on flavour development and authenticity will help boost noodles
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Rice and noodles drive value growth
Inflation expected to boost sales over next five years
Deflation in dry pasta hits value sales
Rice sales continue to show growth
Pot snacks and noodles sales continue to grow
People limiting carbs is having a mixed impact on the market
Promoting fibre content will help sales
World cuisines are a big influence on the market
Population growth means more users for the high penetration market
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Rice and noodles drive value growth
Figure 11: UK retail value and volume sales of pasta, rice and noodles, 2013-23
Inflation expected to boost total value sales
Figure 12: Forecast of UK retail value sales of pasta, rice and noodles, 2013-23
Figure 13: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of pasta, rice and noodles, 2013-23
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Deflation in dry pasta hits value sales
Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of pasta, by segment, 2016-18
Rice sales continue to show growth
Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of rice, by segment, 2016-18
Pot snack and noodles sales continue to grow
Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of instant pot snacks and noodles, by segment, 2016-18
MARKET DRIVERS
Interest in healthy eating is an important driver of meal choices
People limiting carbs is having a mixed impact on the market
Promoting fibre content will help sales
Room to tap more into interest in protein
World cuisines are a big influence on the market
Growing population will mean more users for the high penetration market
Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-23
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Napolina benefits from range development
Own-label makes value gains in rice
Batchelor’s leads in noodles
Leading three brands grow sales in pot snacks
More products reference fibre and protein
Vegetables and pulses also cater for interest in more fibre
Numerous launches bring fibre and protein together
Leading manufacturers fuel activity in instant rice pots
Snack pots attract more premium launches
Expanding choice of flavours and grains in rice
MARKET SHARE
Napolina benefits from range development
Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK pasta market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
Own-label makes value gains in rice
Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK rice market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
Batchelor’s leads in noodles
Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK noodles market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
Leading three brands grow sales in pot snacks
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK pot snacks market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
START-UPS AND DISRUPTORS – CASE STUDIES
Seamore
What is it?
Founded:
Company mission statement:
Founder’s story:
Mintel analyst view
Product information
Figure 22: Seamore, product list, 2019
Media profile
Figure 23: Social media metrics for Seamore as of January 2019
The brand’s view
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Pasta accounts for biggest share of new launches
Figure 24: Share of new product launches in the UK pasta, rice and noodles market, by segment, 2014-18
More products reference fibre and protein
Operators must go beyond wholegrain to tap into consumer interest in fibre content
Stronger communication of fibre content is needed to add value to wholegrain
Figure 25: Perception map of attribute performance of wholegrain rice in comparison to non-wholegrain rice in the UK rice market, April 2018-January 2019
Recent launches pair wholegrain with flavourings, convenience and ‘supergrains’
Figure 26: Examples of new products making wholegrain claims in pasta and rice, 2018
Vegetables and pulses also cater for interest in more fibre
Figure 27: Examples of new products in pasta made from vegetables and pulses making high/added fibre claims, 2018
Numerous launches bring fibre and protein together for an elevated health proposition
Recent launches highlighting protein range from Napolina to Genius and CarbZone
Figure 28: Examples of new products making fibre, protein and gluten-free claims in pasta, 2018
Noodles see more high/added protein claims
Figure 29: Examples of new noodle products making high/added protein claims, 2018
Snack pots are a big focus of launch activity as Unilever and Napolina target the convenience segment
Unilever, Napolina and Symington’s fuel activity in instant rice pots
Figure 30: Examples of launches of instant rice pots, 2018
Snack pots attract more premium launches
Figure 31: Examples of new launches of instant snack pots with a more premium positioning, 2018
Premium pasta maintains long-standing focus on provenance and bronze die
Figure 32: Examples of bronze die pasta launches, 2018
Expanding choice of flavours and grain combinations hopes to keep rice on-trend
Figure 33: Examples of new flavour launches in rice, 2018
Convenience is a big driver but also packaging concerns
Figure 34: Examples of instant pasta and rice launches, 2018
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Advertising spending continues to fall
Figure 35: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on rice, pasta and noodles*, 2015-18
Mars cuts support for Uncle Ben’s rice
Tilda celebrates diversity of British food culture
Mug Shot targets female office workers and busy mums
Figure 36: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on rice, pasta and noodles, by advertiser, 2015-18
Napolina partners with ITV and Gino D’Acampo
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Vast majority of people eat pasta and rice
Pasta, rice and noodle meals are widely seen as money saving
Fibre content is important but four in 10 looking for less carbs
Pasta buying focuses on convenience and price
Branded pasta faces tough battle against own-label
Ease of use is top consideration for rice
Packaging improvements appeal in rice
Noodles need to be quick to cook/prepare
Focus on nutrition is important for driving sales
USAGE OF PASTA, RICE AND NOODLES
Vast majority of people eat pasta and rice
Figure 37: Usage of pasta, rice, noodles, couscous and grains, November 2017 and November 2018
Dry pasta and rice most widely eaten
Figure 38: Frequency of eating pasta, rice, noodles and grains, November 2018
Nearly six in 10 use microwavable rice
Noodles, including pot snacks, have younger appeal
BEHAVIOURS RELATING TO PASTA, RICE AND NOODLES
Pasta, rice and noodle meals are widely seen as money saving
Recreating restaurant dishes appeals to most pasta/rice/noodles’ users
Figure 39: Behaviours relating to pasta, rice and noodles, November 2018
Fibre content is important but four in 10 looking for less carbs
Fibre content chimes with carb limiters
Wholegrain holds limited appeal despite the high interest in fibre
Vegetables are a source of competition and an opportunity
FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF PASTA
Pasta buying focuses on convenience and price
Notable trading up opportunities, more scope to play up speed
Figure 40: Factors influencing choice when buying pasta, November 2018
A minority look for wheat/wholegrain or high protein
ATTITUDES TOWARDS PASTA
Branded pasta faces tough battle against own-label
Figure 41: Attitudes towards pasta, November 2018
Added flavours and nutrients offer differentiation
High interest in fortification
FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF RICE
Ease of use is top consideration for rice
Figure 42: Factors influencing choice when buying rice, November 2018
Recipe choice is a big driver of rice purchased
ATTITUDES TOWARDS RICE
Packaging improvements appeal in rice
Strong demand for easier-to-use formats
Helping users to portion rice chimes widely
Figure 43: Italiamo Arborio Risotto Rice with measurement lines on-pack, December 2018
Risk of single-serve packaging backlash
Figure 44: Attitudes towards rice, November 2018
FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF NOODLES
Noodles need to be quick to cook/prepare
Figure 45: Factors influencing choice when buying noodles, November 2018
Flavoured/added ingredients offer differentiation
ATTITUDES TOWARDS NOODLES
Focus on nutrition is important for driving sales
High protein content appeals to more than half of noodle users
Figure 46: Attitudes towards noodles, November 2018
Strong interest in kits for making soups/broths with noodles
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of pasta, rice and noodles, 2018-23
Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of pasta, rice and noodles, 2018-23
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 49: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK pasta market, by value and volume, 2017 and 2018
Figure 50: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK rice market, by value and volume, 2017 and 2018
Figure 51: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK noodles market, by value and volume, 2017 and 2018
Figure 52: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK pot snacks market, by value and volume, 2017 and 2018
APPENDIX – LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Figure 53: New product launches in the pasta market*, by claim, 2014-18
Figure 54: New product launches in the rice market*, by claim, 2014-18
Figure 55: New product launches in the noodles market*, by claim, 2014-18
Figure 56: Attribute performance of wholegrain rice in comparison to non-wholegrain rice in the UK rice market, April 2018-January 2019