Sugar and Alternative Sweeteners - US - December 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Sales declines continue
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2013-23
A majority of consumers are limiting sugar/sweetener consumption
Figure 2: Consumers limiting/avoiding sugar and sweeteners, September 2018
Long-term health initiatives driving reduction
Figure 3: Reasons for limiting sugar, September 2018
The opportunities
Motivating younger consumers
Figure 4: Dental/aesthetic reasons for limiting sugar, by age, September 2018
Connecting with nature
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Sugar/sweetener market continues decline
Honey leveraging natural appeal
To health and back
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Sweetener sales decline intensifies
Figure 5: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Honey gains as other segments falter
Figure 7: Segment market share of sugar and sweeteners, 2018 (est)
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET FACTORS 
Health strongly impacting consumers
Figure 9: Weight management status, July 2017
Sweet sensation without taxation
Figure 10: Impact of tax on sweetened beverage consumption, by age, September 2018
Diabetes, prediabetes numbers rise
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Store brands lean in to local appeal
Natural appeal of honey
Other sweetener segments face challenges
GMO-free potential
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF SUGAR AND ALTERNATIVE SWEETENERS
Private label maintains dominant market share
Sales of sugar and sweeteners by company
Figure 11: Sales of sugar and sweeteners, by company, 2017 and 2018
WHAT’S WORKING?
Honey brands push environmental, natural appeal
Figure 12: US honey introductions, by claim, 2017-18
Figure 13: Nature Nate’s Honey introductions, 2018
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Sugary backlash felt by sweeteners at large
Figure 14: Usage trend – Cooking from scratch, September 2018
WHAT’S NEXT?
Free-from from private label
Figure 15: US introductions of sugar and sweeteners, by private label versus branded, 2014-18
Figure 16: Sugar and sweetener launches in the US, private label versus branded, by free-from claims, 2017-18
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Sugar still popular, but honey’s gaining traction with younger consumers
Alternative sweeteners poised for growth
Road to health could detour sugar
Natural appeal getting sticky
Packaged food and drinks bear the brunt of sugar revolt
SWEETENERS USED 
Sugar leads sweeteners used
Figure 17: Sweeteners used, September 2018
Sweetener applications could use refresh
Figure 18: Sweeteners used, by usage of sweeteners, September 2018
Honey’s popularity strong among younger consumers
Figure 19: Sweeteners used, by age, September 2018
Honey notably more popular among Hispanic consumers
Figure 20: Sweeteners used, by Hispanic origin, September 2018
SWEETENER USAGE TREND
Consumers limiting sweetener use
Figure 21: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
Younger consumers taking a real approach
Figure 22: Sweetener usage trend – more, by age, September 2018
Hispanic interest in limiting sugar
Figure 23: Sweetener usage trend, by Hispanic origin, September 2018
REASONS FOR LIMITING SUGAR
Cutting sugar regarded as a means of improving health
Figure 24: Reasons for limiting sugar, September 2018
Health concerns impacting younger consumers
Figure 25: Reasons for limiting sugar, by age, September 2018
Healthy reasoning
Figure 26: Health and sweeteners, September 2018
SUGAR SUBSTITUTES
Honey significantly most popular alternative to sugar
Figure 27: Sugar substitutes, September 2018
Figure 28: Opinions of artificial versus natural sweeteners, September 2018
SWEETENERS IN PACKAGED FOOD/DRINK
Sweetened beverages lead the list of concerns
Figure 29: Sweetener concern by category, September 2018
Consumer uncertainty about sweeteners
Figure 30: Labeling of sugar/sweeteners in packaged food/drink, September 2018
Fathers more willing to consider artificial sweeteners
Figure 31: Opinions of artificial sweeteners, by gender and presence of children, September 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 32: Total US sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 34: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Figure 35: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of syrup and molasses, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 38: Total US retail sales and forecast of syrup and molasses, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 39: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar substitutes, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar substitutes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of honey, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of honey, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 43: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
Figure 44: Total US retail sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Figure 45: US supermarket sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners, at current prices, 2013-18
Figure 46: US sales of sugar and alternative sweeteners through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 47: Multi-outlet sales of sugar, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017-18
Figure 48: Multi-outlet sales of syrup and molasses, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017-18
Figure 49: Multi-outlet sales of sugar substitutes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017-18
Figure 50: Multi-outlet sales of honey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017-18