House Building - UK - October 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Consecutive growth in past five years forecast to be repeated
Figure 1: Forecast UK House building market value, £ billion, 2014-23
Private sector driving market growth
Companies and brands
Help to Buy schemes continue to underpin activity
Slowing market in London and the South East
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
The importance of the Help to Buy scheme
The facts
The implications
Widening skills shortage
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Market value sustained consecutive growth in 2018
Private sector continues to consolidate
The market is expected to maintain ongoing growth, driven by private sector
MARKET SIZE
Market value sustained consecutive growth in 2018
Figure 2: UK house building market value, £ billion, 2014-18
Number of new homes continues to grow
Figure 3: UK new permanent dwellings completed, 1969/70-2017/18
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Private sector continues to consolidate
Figure 4: Permanent dwellings completed, England, Scotland and Wales, by tenure, 2013/14-2017/18
Public and private new housing construction expenditure reaches new heights
Figure 5: Output in the UK construction industry, private and public, £ million, Q1 2014-Q2 2018
Flat and housing
Figure 6: England, permanent dwellings completed, by house and flat, %, 2008/09-2017/18
Construction by region
Figure 7: Total new housing construction output, by region, £ million, Q1 2014-Q2 2018
Construction by nation
Figure 8: Total private new housing construction output, by nation, £ million, Q2 2018
MARKET FORECAST
The market is expected to maintain ongoing growth
Figure 9: Forecast UK House building market value, £ billion, 2014-23
Private sector driven by housing under-supply
Figure 10: Forecast private housing output, England, Scotland and Wales, £ million, 2014-23
Public sector dependent on government strategic commitments
Figure 11: Forecast public housing construction output, England, Scotland and Wales, £ million 2014-23
THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMY
Unmatched demand levels continue to overcome unfavourable conditions
MARKET TRENDS
House prices continues to rise, but growth rate has slowed
Figure 12: UK Average house price, January 2009-June 2018
Affordability continues to worsen
Figure 13: England Housing affordability, ratio of median house price to median annual earnings, 2008-17
Home ownership continues to fall across the UK
Figure 14: UK number of property transactions completed with value of £40,000 or above, 2008/09-2017/18
MARKET DRIVERS
Help to Buy scheme continues to bolster the industry
Growing focus beyond London and the South East
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Infrastructure growth
Help-to-buy schemes continue to underpin activity
Slowing market in London and the South East
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Changes in the structure of the industry
Figure 15: Analysis of changes in the development of building projects sector, outlets and businesses, 2013-2017
Figure 16: Analysis of changes in the construction of residential and non-residential buildings sector, outlets and businesses, 2013-2017
Structure by employment
Figure 17: Financial analysis of the development of building projects sector, 2016 and 2017
Figure 18: Financial analysis of the construction of residential and non-residential buildings sector, 2016 and 2017
Structure by turnover
Figure 19: Analysis of the employment structure of the development of building projects sector, 2016 and 2017
Figure 20: Analysis of the employment structure of the construction of residential and non-residential buildings sector, 2016 and 2017
COMPANY PROFILES
Barratt Developments
Figure 21: Financial analysis of Barratt Development Plc, £ million, 2014-18
Bellway
Figure 22: Financial analysis of Bellway, £ million, 2013-17
Berkeley Group
Figure 23: Financial analysis of Berkeley Group, £ million, 2014-18
Galliford Try
Figure 24: Financial analysis of Galliford Try, £ million, 2013-17
Persimmon
Figure 25: Financial analysis of Persimmon, £ million, 2013-17
Taylor Wimpey
Figure 26: Financial analysis of Taylor Wimpey, £ million, 2013-17
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Methodology
FURTHER SOURCES AND CONTACTS
Trade associations
Trade magazines
Trade events